Texas Senate winner? (2026)
65%James Talarico
- James Talarico65%▲ 1
- Ken Paxton36%▼ 1
Install
120th Congress: Who will run for Senate Democratic leader? (Before Jan 1, 2027)
The odds
86%Chuck Schumer
- Chuck Schumer86%▼ 1
- Brian Schatz16%▼ 1
- Chris Van Hollen3%
- Chris Murphy3%
- Catherine Cortez Masto3%
- Elizabeth Warren3%
- Cory Booker3%
How the odds have moved
Chuck Schumer: 97% on Oct 20, 86% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chuck Schumer | 86% | ▼ 1 | 86¢ | 95¢ | $1.05 | 3.4K |
| Brian Schatz | 16% | ▼ 1 | 15¢ | 25¢ | $4.00 | |
| Chris Van Hollen | 3% | 1¢ | 6¢ | $16.67 | ||
| Chris Murphy | 3% | 1¢ | 6¢ | $16.67 | ||
| Catherine Cortez Masto | 3% | 1¢ | 6¢ | $16.67 | ||
| Elizabeth Warren | 3% | 1¢ | 6¢ | $16.67 | ||
| Cory Booker | 3% | 1¢ | 6¢ | $16.67 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Senate Democratic, Chuck Schumer, Brian Schatz
Search ›-
Joe Manchin rips Chuck Schumer for working against ‘dear friend’ Susan Collins: ‘he’s crazy’Former Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin took a swipe at Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer Wednesday for working to oust his “dear friend” Sen. Susan Collins — calling him “crazy” for targeting the Maine Republican. Manchin, who left the… -
Indian-American Ro Khanna says he is ‘not a Chuck Schumer Democrat’Home » International » Indian-American Ro Khanna says he is ‘not a Chuck Schumer Democrat’ Posted By: Gopi October 21, 2026 United Nations, Oct 22 (SocialNews.XYZ) Indian-American Congressman Ro Khanna has declared himself “a New Deal… -
Manchin calls Schumer 'crazy' for trying to oust GOP senator in crucial Senate showdownFormer Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia, a longtime Democrat turned independent, speaks with Fox News Digital in Lewiston, Maine as he campaigns with his close friend Republican Sen. Susan Collins. LEWISTON, MAINE – Former Sen. Joe… -
Roger Marshall and Adam Hamilton face off in fiery final Kansas Senate debateRepublican Sen. Roger Marshall and Democrat Adam Hamilton went head to head in a contentious debate Wednesday night as polls show a toss-up in ruby-red Kansas with less than two weeks until Election Day. Marshall and Hamilton traded… -
Bill Ackman sounds off on 'crazy, radicalized' Democratic Party, argues it's in 'worst place it's ever been'Bill Ackman sounded off on The Democratic Party during an interview posted Monday, telling podcast host Katie Miller that it’s the worst it has ever been. Investor Bill Ackman called the Democratic Party "crazy, radicalized and… -
Senate Democrats start spending in Mississippi - Live Updates - POLITICOSenate Majority PAC, Democrats’ main Senate super PAC, is putting in $1.2 million to try to defeat Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith. Democratsâ money machine is on its way to Mississippi Senate Majority PAC is putting an initial $1.2 million on… -
Recommended StoriesWashington Examiner is a news organization based in Washington, D.C., covering Congress, the White House, national security, the courts and elections, with breaking news, investigative reporting and conservative analysis. It publishes a… -
Democrats sue to block Trump administration from usurping states’ authority to administer electionsWASHINGTON — Two weeks from the midterm elections, Democratic Party leaders are suing in federal court to block President Donald Trump's administration from usurping states' authority to administer elections or trying to intimidate state… -
As Kansas Senate race tightens, Marshall argues opponent is just another Democrat, while Hamilton says he's "independent-minded"October 22, 2026 / 12:05 AM EDT / CBS News The candidates in Kansas' surprisingly competitive Senate race faced off in a debate Wednesday evening, as Republicans fight to head off the possibility of their first loss in a Kansas Senate… -
Trump’s decision to waive Russian sanctions outrages Congress, but no quick counter seenHome » News » Trump’s decision to waive Russian sanctions outrages Congress, but no quick counter seen WASHINGTON — President Donald Trump’s abrupt decision to waive sanctions on Russia days before they were to take effect drew outrage… -
Trump praises supporter for allegedly punching protester during rally for Darline Graham in South Carolina – as it happenedSend us your questions about immigration and the midterms We’re wrapping up our live coverage of US politics. Here are some of today’s key developments: Minnesota congresswoman Ilhan Omar denied allegations of immigration fraud in a… -
Kansas Senate rivals distance themselves from party leaders in fiery debateAffordability concerns dominate the Kansas Senate race as Democratic candidate Adam Hamilton releases a video welcoming President Donald Trump to the state. Fox Business contributor Lou Basenese analyzes whether an economic pitch can win…
Related markets
All senate ›Which party will win the U.S. Senate? (2026)
64%Democratic Party
- Democratic Party64%▼ 3
- Republican Party37%▲ 2
Texas Senate Election Winner
64%James Talarico (D)
- James Talarico (D)64%
- Ken Paxton (R)37%
Michigan Senate Election Winner
72%Abdul El-Sayed (D)
- Abdul El-Sayed (D)72%▲ 1
- Mike Rogers (R)28%▼ 1
2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
65%Democrats sweep
- Democrats sweep65%▼ 2
- D-House, R-Senate26%▲ 2
- Republicans sweep10%
1 more
- R-House, D-Senate1%
Maine Senate Election Winner
64%Troy Jackson (D)
- Troy Jackson (D)64%▼ 3
- Susan Collins (R)36%▲ 1
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.