Which Senate races will be within 5 points? (Nov 3, 2026)

Kalshi Elections › Senate Closes Nov 3, 2027 · $2.7K today · $28.4K traded · $15.6K at stake · prices read 11 min ago

The odds

73%Iowa
  • Iowa73%▼ 2
  • Kansas67%▼ 9
  • Maine67%▲ 1
  • Texas65%▼ 11
  • Michigan64%▲ 2
  • Alaska62%▲ 3
  • Ohio (special)61%▲ 3
  • Nebraska54%▲ 2
  • South Carolina54%▲ 6
  • Florida (special)32%▲ 8
  • New Hampshire29%▼ 1
  • North Carolina12%▲ 1

How the odds have moved

Iowa: 70% on Oct 20, 73% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
Iowa 73% ▼ 2 71¢ 74¢ $1.35 8.8K
Kansas 67% ▼ 9 65¢ 69¢ $1.45 5.0K
Maine 67% ▲ 1 64¢ 69¢ $1.45 1.7K
Texas 65% ▼ 11 62¢ 67¢ $1.49 8.2K
Michigan 64% ▲ 2 62¢ 65¢ $1.54 3.0K
Alaska 62% ▲ 3 59¢ 65¢ $1.54 1.8K
Ohio (special) 61% ▲ 3 59¢ 62¢ $1.61 5.2K
Nebraska 54% ▲ 2 51¢ 57¢ $1.75 474
South Carolina 54% ▲ 6 52¢ 55¢ $1.82 4.3K
Florida (special) 32% ▲ 8 31¢ 33¢ $3.03 8.4K
New Hampshire 29% ▼ 1 26¢ 32¢ $3.13 635
North Carolina 12% ▲ 1 10¢ 14¢ $7.14 5.9K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Senate

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  • 9 US Senate races could determine control of the chamberFox News · 4 h agoThe Ben Shapiro Show’ host Ben Shapiro joins ‘One Nation’ to discuss nine U.S. Senate races that could determine control of the Senate, Michigan Democratic U.S. Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed and the 2028 presidential election. 9 US Senate…
  • Iowa’s Senate rivals pitch independence from their partiesPOLITICO · 5 h agoAshley Hinson qualified her pledge to be Trump’s strongest ally, while Josh Turek praised the president’s border record. U.S. Senate candidate Josh Turek speaks during a debate with his Republican opponent, Ashley Hinson, on Oct. 7, 2026…
  • Trump calls Michigan Senate candidate El-Sayed a ‘jihadist’Fox News · 9 h agoPresident Donald Trump speaks at a rally in Port Huron, Michigan, about Michigan Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed, his family’s alleged support for terrorist organizations and Trump’s characterization of El-Sayed as a ‘jihadist.’ Trump…
  • Ohio Senate and governor races tighten ahead of midtermsFox News · 11 h agoFox News correspondent Alexandria Hoff reports on the closely watched Ohio Senate and governor races ahead of the midterm elections. Ohio Senate and governor races tighten ahead of midterms Fox News correspondent Alexandria Hoff reports on…
  • How Christianity Became a Battleground in the Texas Senate RaceNewsweek · 17 h agoOct 25, 2026 at 05:00 AM EDT Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico are making Christianity a defining issue in the home stretch of Texas’ U.S. Senate race, offering sharply different visions of what faith should mean in…
  • Blanche defends Trump-ordered lawsuit over Alaska Senate election certificationCNBC · 10 h agoThe lawsuit, filed last week, cites what it argues is likely voter confusion over the name Daniel J. Sullivan, a retired teacher also on the ballot. The DOJ said confusion over the two Sullivans could help former Alaska Democratic Rep…
  • Paxton and Talarico on the campaign trail in tight Senate raceCBS News · 7 h agoCBS News Chicago Sunday 5:30pm CBS News Detroit Weekend 6:30pm CBS News Miami 6:30pm CBS News New York Weekend 6:30pm CBS Philadelphia at 6:30pm KDKA News Weekends 6:30pm CBS News Texas 5:30pm
  • Black voters UNSURE of El-Sayed in Michigan Senate raceFox News · 11 h agoBlack voters in Michigan voice their concerns about Michigan Democratic Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed as only weeks remain in the tight race. Black voters UNSURE of El-Sayed in Michigan Senate race Black voters in Michigan voice their…
  • Todd Blanche defends DOJ lawsuit over Senate election in AlaskaThe Washington Post · 8 h agoBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. The attorney general…
  • Ohio Senate race tightens in final stretchFox News · 36 h agoFox News Ohio Senate race tightens in final stretch Ohio Sen. Jon Husted joins ‘Fox News Live’ to discuss early voting numbers, his reelection campaign strategy and the key issues shaping the midterm elections. Ohio Senate candidate Jon…
  • Trump Attacks Murkowski As Alaska Senate Fight Escalates: ‘Worst Senator’Newsweek · 14 h agoOct 25, 2026 at 07:59 AM EDT Oct 25, 2026 at 08:09 AM EDT President Donald Trump has escalated his criticism of Republican Senator Lisa Murkowski as a high-stakes Alaska Senate race intensifies, branding the longtime senator one of the…
  • Alaska Senate candidate Mary Peltola delays campaign stops after car crashthe Guardian · 10 h agoPeltola and her family sustained minor injuries after a driver struck the car transporting group to campaign stop Mary Peltola, a Democrat who is running for Alaska’s lone US Senate seat, and her family suffered minor injuries in a car…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions