Which Senate races will be within 1 point? (Nov 3, 2026)

Kalshi Elections › Senate Closes Nov 3, 2027 · $29 today · $945 traded · $641 at stake · prices read 85 min ago

The odds

18%Iowa
  • Iowa18%▲ 3
  • Kansas16%
  • Texas16%▼ 1
  • Michigan16%▲ 1
  • Maine14%▼ 1
  • Ohio (special)13%▼ 1
  • Alaska12%▼ 2
  • Nebraska12%▲ 2
  • Florida (special)9%
  • South Carolina8%
  • New Hampshire4%
  • North Carolina1%▼ 1

How the odds have moved

Iowa: 16% on Oct 19, 18% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
Iowa 18% ▲ 3 13¢ 22¢ $4.55 581
Kansas 16% 12¢ 20¢ $5.00 587
Texas 16% ▼ 1 12¢ 19¢ $5.26 403
Michigan 16% ▲ 1 13¢ 18¢ $5.56 2.3K
Maine 14% ▼ 1 12¢ 17¢ $5.88 564
Ohio (special) 13% ▼ 1 9¢ 17¢ $5.88 444
Alaska 12% ▼ 2 10¢ 14¢ $7.14 510
Nebraska 12% ▲ 2 8¢ 15¢ $6.67 572
Florida (special) 9% 6¢ 11¢ $9.09 547
South Carolina 8% 6¢ 9¢ $11.11 211
New Hampshire 4% 2¢ 6¢ $16.67 139
North Carolina 1% ▼ 1 2¢ $50.00 50.00

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Senate

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  • Trump calls Michigan Senate candidate El-Sayed a ‘jihadist’Fox News · 2 h agoPresident Donald Trump speaks at a rally in Port Huron, Michigan, about Michigan Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed, his family’s alleged support for terrorist organizations and Trump’s characterization of El-Sayed as a ‘jihadist.’ Trump…
  • Ohio Senate and governor races tighten ahead of midtermsFox News · 4 h agoFox News correspondent Alexandria Hoff reports on the closely watched Ohio Senate and governor races ahead of the midterm elections. Ohio Senate and governor races tighten ahead of midterms Fox News correspondent Alexandria Hoff reports on…
  • How Christianity Became a Battleground in the Texas Senate RaceNewsweek · 10 h agoOct 25, 2026 at 05:00 AM EDT Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico are making Christianity a defining issue in the home stretch of Texas’ U.S. Senate race, offering sharply different visions of what faith should mean in…
  • Ohio Senate race tightens in final stretchFox News · 29 h agoFox News Ohio Senate race tightens in final stretch Ohio Sen. Jon Husted joins ‘Fox News Live’ to discuss early voting numbers, his reelection campaign strategy and the key issues shaping the midterm elections. Ohio Senate candidate Jon…
  • Blanche defends Trump-ordered lawsuit over Alaska Senate election certificationCNBC · 3 h agoThe lawsuit, filed last week, cites what it argues is likely voter confusion over the name Daniel J. Sullivan, a retired teacher also on the ballot. The DOJ said confusion over the two Sullivans could help former Alaska Democratic Rep…
  • Black voters UNSURE of El-Sayed in Michigan Senate raceFox News · 4 h agoBlack voters in Michigan voice their concerns about Michigan Democratic Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed as only weeks remain in the tight race. Black voters UNSURE of El-Sayed in Michigan Senate race Black voters in Michigan voice their…
  • Todd Blanche defends DOJ lawsuit over Senate election in AlaskaThe Washington Post · 59 min agoBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. The attorney general…
  • Trump Attacks Murkowski As Alaska Senate Fight Escalates: ‘Worst Senator’Newsweek · 7 h agoOct 25, 2026 at 07:59 AM EDT Oct 25, 2026 at 08:09 AM EDT President Donald Trump has escalated his criticism of Republican Senator Lisa Murkowski as a high-stakes Alaska Senate race intensifies, branding the longtime senator one of the…
  • Alaska Senate candidate Mary Peltola delays campaign stops after car crashthe Guardian · 3 h agoPeltola and her family sustained minor injuries after a driver struck the car transporting group to campaign stop Mary Peltola, a Democrat who is running for Alaska’s lone US Senate seat, and her family suffered minor injuries in a car…
  • Democratic Senate Candidate: Trump Did ‘Better Job’ on Border Than BidenNewsweek · 41 min agoOct 25, 2026 at 05:52 PM EDT Josh Turek, the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Iowa, said President Donald Trump has done a “better job” on the border than former President Joe Biden, while identifying several areas where he could work…
  • Texas voters cast early ballots in key senate raceNPR · 26 h agoIn Texas, early voting is underway. The state's tight race for U.S. Senate will ultimately help decide the balance of power in Washington. Meanwhile, in Texas, early voting in the midterms is underway. The candidates in the U.S. Senate…
  • Blanche defends DOJ lawsuit blocking Alaska Senate results if Republican losesNPR · 6 h agoPresident Donald Trump walks past Attorney General Todd Blanche after speaking at a roundtable event in the East Room of the White House, Wednesday, Oct. 21, 2026, in Washington. Alex Brandon/AP hide caption U.S. Attorney General Todd…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions