South African Local Elections: Most Seats Won (2026)

Kalshi Elections › Around the world Closes Nov 4, 2027 · $86 traded · $86 at stake · prices read 2 h ago

The odds

88%ANC

ANC88%
DA6%
MK Party3%
EFF3%

How the odds have moved

ANC: 88% on Oct 19, 88% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
ANC	88%	87¢	95¢	$1.05	94.00
DA	6%	2¢	11¢	$9.09
MK Party	3%	1¢	5¢	$20.00
EFF	3%	1¢	5¢	$20.00

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: South African Local, MK Party

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MK Party condemns IEC over rejection of candidate list correctionsThe South African · 43 h agoHome » News » Elections - Local, National and Municipal » MK Party condemns IEC over rejection of candidate list corrections The MK Party has condemned the IEC for rejecting its request to correct candidate lists ahead of the 2026 local…
MK party hits back at IEC after candidate list changes are rejectediHarare News · 17 h agoLeader of the MK Party Jacob Zuma-Image Source@X The uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) Party has criticised the Electoral Commission of South Africa (IEC) after it rejected requests to amend its candidate lists. The party sought several corrections…
South Africa local government electionsThe Rio Times · 4 days agoWednesday, 4 November: the date and times, what is at stake, live prediction-market odds and every update as it ha South Africa local government elections South Africa local government elections, Wednesday, 4 November: the date and times…
MK Party fires its eight secretary-general Sibonelo NomvaloThe South African · 3 days agoHome » News » Politics » MK Party fires its eight secretary-general Sibonelo Nomvalo The MK Party has sacked Sibonelo Nomvalo as its secretary-general for allegedly making decisions behind Jacob Zuma’s back. The uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) Party…
MK Party axes SG Sibonelo Nomvalo 13 days before polls, despite Zuma not being seen for weeksNews24 · 3 days agoThe MK Party presidency has fired secretary-general Sibonelo Nomvalo from his position, just 13 days before the local government elections, according to an announcement by party spokesperson Sifiso Mahlangu late on Thursday. Nomvalo’s…
MK party swings axe again, names new parliamentary whipsMossel Bay Advertiser · 5 days agoPOLITICS - The MK party has once again overhauled its parliamentary leadership, removing several party whips and appointing five new ones in the latest caucus shake-up. The appointments of Emerald Kwenzokuhle Madlala, Sanele Gregory Mwali…
EFF ramps up campaign trail ahead of South Africa local electionsBona Magazine · 6 days agoArticles you may also like The Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) are accelerating their ground operations across all 257 municipalities in South Africa ahead of the upcoming local government elections. As part of their overarching “Victory…
Tshwane mayoral candidates: Who wants to lead South Africa’s capital?The South African · 22 h agoHome » News » Elections - Local, National and Municipal » Tshwane mayoral candidates: Who wants to lead South Africa’s capital? Meet the Tshwane mayoral candidates for the 2026 local government elections, including nominees from the DA…
Parliament Backs South Africa Election BodyThe Rio Times · 39 h agoThree parliamentary committees said on Friday, 23 October, that South Africa’s Electoral Commission is ready for the 4 November local elections. The commission is still printing millions of extra ballots; our running coverage sits in the…
South Africa Election Body Denies Party PleaThe Rio Times · 26 h agoSouth Africa’s Electoral Commission (IEC) has rejected a request by the uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) party, founded by former president Jacob Zuma, to amend its candidate lists for the 4 November local elections. MK officials had sought to…
Jacob Zuma instructs MK to reverse parliamentary changesNews24 · 3 days agoLess than one week after the MK Party informed Parliament of the appointment of new whips, party leader Jacob Zuma has now removed the very same whips after he fired Sibonelo Nomvalo as the party’s secretary-general. Zuma has instructed…
Poll: MK has 48% support in eThekwini — TimesLIVEUA.NEWS · 27 h agoIn South Africa, the uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) party, which is associated with former president Jacob Zuma, has 48% support in the eThekwini metropolitan municipality of Durban. According to the eNCA MarkData poll, reported by TimesLIVE, this…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 5 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onElectoral Commission of South Africa

Trading closesNov 4, 2027 10:00 AM ET

Traded$86 (94 contracts)

This week$1

At stake$86

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If the ANC wins the most council seats in South Africa's 2026 local government elections, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions