Rio Grande do Norte Governor winner? (2026)

Kalshi Elections › Around the world Closed Sun 9:35 PM ET · $10.2K today · $29K traded · $9.1K at stake

Settled Cadu de LulaA day before, traders gave it 35%.

The last odds before it closed

—
  • ✓ Cadu de Lula99%▲ 67
  • Alvaro Dias5%
  • Allyson2%▼ 63
  • Dário Barbosa1%
  • Carlos Jararaca1%
  • Henrique Lyra1%
  • Rodrigo Bolsonaro1%
  • Professor Robério Paulino1%
  • Arinalda do MLB1%

How the odds have moved

Cadu de Lula: 40% on Oct 20, 35% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Why it moved

  1. Oct 21, 7 PM ETCadu de Lula: 39% → 33%

The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.

Every outcome

Outcome Last odds Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
✓ Cadu de Lula 99% 28.7K
✗ Alvaro Dias 5% 1.8K
✗ Allyson 2% 15.5K
✗ Dário Barbosa 1% 2.5K
✗ Carlos Jararaca 1% 2.5K
✗ Henrique Lyra 1% 2.5K
✗ Rodrigo Bolsonaro 1% 2.5K
✗ Professor Robério Paulino 1% 2.5K
✗ Arinalda do MLB 1% 2.5K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Rio Grande, Norte Governor

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions