Brazil Presidential Election
80%Flávio Bolsonaro
- Flávio Bolsonaro80%
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva20%
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Will a date be announced for another Quebec Referendum before 2029?
The odds
22%chance
How the odds have moved
Yes: 23% on Oct 19, 22% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 22% | 17¢ | 26¢ | $3.85 | 3.9K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Quebec Referendum
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Records Reveal What Chrétien Told Ministers Before Quebec ReferendumSix days before the nail-biting 1995 Quebec referendum that nearly tore the country apart, Jean Chrétien told his ministers to keep their cool. The prime minister acknowledged that day that Quebecers might vote to separate from Canada on… -
Alberta and Québec referendums test Canadian unity amid hostility from the U.S.Home » Cover » Alberta and Québec referendums test Canadian unity amid hostility from the U.S. People in the Canadian province of Alberta are voting on whether to stay in Canada or begin a process for a second, binding referendum on… - Letters to the editor: ‘The last Quebec referendum and Brexit offer two examples … we will see which of these possibilities arises.’ Letters to the editor for Oct. 19People take part in a Pro-Canada Rally, at the Provincial Legislature ahead of a non-binding referendum on Alberta sovereignty, in Edmonton, Alberta, Canada, Oct. 18.Todd Korol/Reuters Re “Carney urges Albertans to vote against separating…
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The Alberta Referendum, Winners and LosersAlberta Premier Danielle Smith and Prime Minister Mark Carney in October, 2025/Carney X In the aftermath of the significant defeat of the separatist option of holding a binding referendum in Alberta, the discussion has begun about the… -
Opinion | The fallout from the Alberta referendum is far from over. Take it from me, someone who left Quebec after ‘95Supporters of the Forever Canadian group, who want Alberta to remain in Canada, react as they watch the results of a non-binding referendum on Alberta sovereignty in Edmonton on Monday night. There has been a lot of politics in Canada this… - Alberta rejects secession referendum, chooses to remain part of CanadaThe oil-rich province of Alberta has rejected the pathway to secession and will remain part of Canada, landing a definitive blow to a fringe but loud campaign which sought support from the US. About three quarters of voters chose to stay…
- FIRST READING: The extremely Canadian pastime of holding an unsuccessful secession referendumNobody else really does this On Monday, Albertans participated in something that has become a quintessentially Canadian political exercise: an unsuccessful secession vote. The ballot question was only on whether Alberta should hold a…
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A look at past referendums in Canada as Albertans reject future separation voteFamously, a razor-thin majority rejected the idea of Quebec leaving Confederation and becoming its own country in 1995. People participate in an independence rally in Montreal, Saturday, Oct. 25, 2025, to mark the 30th anniversary of the… -
Opinion | Alberta’s grievances are real. But do they make it a distinct society?Éric Blais is president of Headspace Marketing in Toronto and the author of "Normal Nation: How Normalcy Could Play in a Third Québec Referendum." Albertans have spoken, rather loudly. Roughly three-quarters of voters chose to remain in… -
Seventy-Six Percent Said No to Separation: What Alberta's Vote Means for Immigration and Over 80,000 LatinosMonday's ballot was not a single independence question. Alberta's first-ever independence referendum placed ten questions before voters — covering immigration, public services, constitutional powers, and whether the province should begin… - The pro-Canada side won in Alberta. That’s not an endorsement of the status quoRoughly 76 per cent of Albertans voted in favour of staying in Canada and 24 per cent for a binding referendum, according to preliminary results from Elections Alberta.Timon Johnson/The Canadian Press Tyler Dawson is an Edmonton-based…
- TAIT: Monday's Alberta referendum a test of Canadian democracyI could ask them, of course. The well-worn routine of a veteran journalist would be to pick up the receiver, dial Veterans Affairs, find an old soldier sitting in an armchair somewhere in Edmonton, and ask: “Was it worth it?” But I think I…
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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.