Brazil Presidential Election
78%Flávio Bolsonaro
- Flávio Bolsonaro78%▼ 6
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva22%▲ 5
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Philippine Senate election winner? (2028)
The odds
45%NPC
- NPC45%
- PDP32%
- Nacionalista23%
How the odds have moved
NPC: 45% on Oct 19, 45% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NPC | 45% | 40¢ | 49¢ | $2.04 | 755 | |
| PDP | 32% | 27¢ | 37¢ | $2.70 | ||
| Nacionalista | 23% | 18¢ | 27¢ | $3.70 | 785 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Philippine Senate
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The Impending Impeachment Conviction of Philippine Vice President Sara DuterteFour months into her impeachment trial in the Senate, the political winds are starting to turn against Duterte. The Philippine Senate holds a hearing in the ongoing impeachment trial of Vice President Sara Duterte, Oct. 13, 2026. Recent… -
Philippines, Poland explore stronger defense, trade and investment cooperationSenate President Sherwin Gatchalian welcomed former Polish President Andrzej Duda and former European Parliament member Tomasz Poręba to the Philippine Senate on October 20, 2026, for discussions aimed at strengthening bilateral… -
Manila Counted Seven Wounded and Changed Nothing“Monitor security advisories before going to work.” Senator Erwin Tulfo, vice-chairman, Philippine Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, advising OFWs in Saudi Arabia (Manila Times, 19 October 2026) The contrast with Manila’s own history… -
Philippine Senator Files Resolution Seeking Chinese Ambassador’s ExpulsionJing Quan prompted controversy last week when he told reporters that China could “easily win” a war against the Philippines. Senator Erwin Tulfo addresses a session of the Philippine Senate in Pasay City, Metro Manila, Philippines, Oct… -
[OPINION] Duterte impeachment trial: The strange power of dropping chargesThree impeachment articles against Vice President Sara Duterte are gone. But an accusation can die in law and live on in politics. Is that a mistrial—or the peculiar nature of impeachment? In Lewis Carroll’s Alice’s Adventures in… -
Philippines’ 2027 budget hit over social services cuts, funds for political dynastiesFri, Oct 16, 2026 | Jumada al-Awwal 4, 1448 | Fajr 05:00|DXB 30.3°C The P7.2-trillion (Dh423.5 billion) Philippine national budget for 2027 is not pro-people. “It only funds corrupt officials and political dynasties.” The statement came as… -
'Good luck': Marcos taunts Duterte after declaring bid to run as Philippine presidentThu, Oct 15, 2026 | Jumada al-Awwal 3, 1448 | Fajr 05:00|DXB 32.4°C “Good luck, that’s all we can say,” was the terse but sarcastic remark by Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s spokesperson, Claire Castro, hours after Vice… -
Gerville Luistro apologizes for prosecution's wacky photo in Senate hallLead House prosecutor Rep. Gerville Luistro has apologized to the Senate after Senate President Win Gatchalian ordered an investigation into reported inappropriate antics that took place in the session hall. "And it was indeed an… -
Social media bans are no cure-all, but governments may still find them necessarySOCIAL MEDIA APPS. Instagram, TikTok, Snapchat, Kick, YouTube, Facebook, Twitch, Reddit, Threads and X applications are displayed on a mobile phone ahead of new law banning social media for users under 16 in Australia, in this picture… -
Prosecutors drop most impeachment charges against Philippine VP DutertePhilippine impeachment court on Tuesday granted prosecutors’ request to drop most of the charges against Vice President Sara Duterte at a trial that could still block her 2028 presidential bid. Prosecutors, who had already moved last week… -
Prosecutors drop 3 impeachment charges against Philippine VP to speed up trialPhilippine prosecutors have dropped three of four impeachment charges against Vice President Sara Duterte to speed up her ongoing trial MANILA, Philippines -- Prosecutors dropped three of four impeachment charges against Vice President… - Philippine court leaves one charge against Vice President Duterte — Channel NewsAsiaThe impeachment court in the Philippines granted the prosecution's motion and dropped two charges against Vice President Sara Duterte. Together with the previously withdrawn bribery charge, this leaves only the allegation concerning…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions