2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)
8.75%median
-100%100%
Median 8.75%Middle half 6.47% – 10.89%
Install
How many Senators will vote for the American Affordability and Jobs Act? (Before Jan 1, 2027)
The odds
69.5median
5288
Median 69.5Middle half 56 – 76
How the odds have moved
Not enough history yet.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 56 | 75% | ▼ 1 | 70¢ | 80¢ | $1.25 | 625 |
| Above 60 | 69% | ▼ 1 | 64¢ | 73¢ | $1.37 | 10.00 |
| Above 64 | 63% | ▼ 1 | 58¢ | 67¢ | $1.49 | 10.00 |
| Above 68 | 56% | ▼ 1 | 51¢ | 60¢ | $1.67 | 25.00 |
| Above 72 | 41% | ▼ 1 | 36¢ | 46¢ | $2.17 | |
| Above 76 | 25% | ▼ 1 | 20¢ | 30¢ | $3.33 | |
| Above 80 | 11% | 6¢ | 15¢ | $6.67 | 2.00 | |
| Above 84 | 6% | 2¢ | 9¢ | $11.11 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: American Affordability and Jobs Act, Senators
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Senate Unveils Bipartisan Permitting Bill: What the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act Would Mean for Energy and Environmental PermittingDevelopments in Law and Policy of Energy, Commodities and Environment On September 30, 2026, just before the Senate recessed ahead of the midterm elections, leaders of the Senate Environment and Public Works and Energy and Natural… -
6 threats to public lands in the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs ActNew plans aim to strip protections from 45 million acres of our wildest forests It is necessary to view this bill in the broader context of escalating threats to public lands and waters, wildlife, Tribes and communities, and the agencies… -
The Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act of 2026 and the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission’s Backstop Siting AuthorityOctober 14, 2026 IN12746 Under current law, FERC's backstop siting authority is limited in its geographic coverage. FERC may issue construction permits only in areas of the country designated as National Interest Electric Transmission… -
Tribal leaders gather in Palm Springs to raise concerns over proposed federal changes to sacred site protectionsPALM SPRINGS, Calif. (KESQ) - Tribal leaders from across the country are gathering in Palm Springs Monday, raising concerns over proposed federal changes they say could weaken protections for sacred sites, historic properties and… - Democrats: Embrace Incivility!Georgia Senator Jon Ossoff is leading the rise of the rude Democrat. More should follow his lead. In recent weeks, I’ve been fortunate enough to observe two competing visions for Democratic senators should they retake the upper chamber in…
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Watchdog group predicts utilities will oppose transmission reform that could yield 200 GW of clean energyThe trade group American Clean Power (ACP) has endorsed the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act of 2026 recently introduced in the U.S. Senate, highlighting the bill’s transmission and permitting provisions that would benefit… -
Jennifer Springer: Laws differ on how and when utilities can raise ratesAny family who has moved into a home or apartment knows water, natural gas and electric services become the building blocks of most monthly budgets. Jennifer Springer is policy director of the Alliance for Secure Energy, a nonprofit… -
Renee McKenney: After 40 years, it's time to increase Tulsa hotel guest taxThis election could be one of the most consequential in recent Tulsa history. Renee McKenney is president of Tulsa Regional Tourism, Visit Tulsa. The story of where we came from matters. It frames the root of the issue: Oklahoma’s medical… -
Erica Irvine: Junior Achievement prepares young people for what's nextSixty years is a milestone worth celebrating, but what I find myself thinking about most isn't the number. It's the people and the stories behind it. Erica Irvine is president of Junior Achievement of Oklahoma. The story of where we came… -
Sorry lawyers, you can't save the planet with paperworkWelcome to The Closing Argument, our verdict on the news, plus everything The Argument published and appeared in this week. Growing up, I was captivated by the BBC documentary series The Life of Birds, particularly Sir David Attenborough’s… -
Login to Your AccountA landmark permitting reform bill has united U.S. senators from both parties, but it is dividing the artificial intelligence data center sector. Some industry leaders say it would make data centers easier to build, while others worry it… -
Australian Greens senator denies claims of misconduct towards womenGreens senator Jordon Steele-John denies claims of misconduct against women An Australian Greens senator has denied allegations of inappropriate behaviour towards women and accused his party of "nasty political games", days after the…
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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.