Will the Senate overrule the parliamentarian on budget reconciliation in 2026?

Kalshi Politics › Congress Closes Jan 1, 2027 · $69 traded · $8 at stake · prices read 5 h ago

The odds

2%chance

How the odds have moved

Yes: 2% on Oct 19, 2% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
Yes 2% 1¢ 2¢ $50.00 4.6K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Senate

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  • Sanders could soon get a Senate bully pulpitPOLITICO · 6 h agoYour first read on Capitol Hill politics and policy. 10/26/2026 04:50 AM EDT IN TODAY’S EDITION:— Trump-spurned Republicans snub successors— Dems plan Trump target in Epstein probe— Blanche defends Alaska election suit Bernie Sanders is…
  • Republicans Could Still Keep the Senate. Here’s HowNewsweek · 4 h agoOct 26, 2026 at 05:00 AM EDT Certain preelection forecasts have Democrats riding a blue wave to majorities in both the House and the Senate, but there are a few ways for the GOP to keep its grasp on the upper chamber for the remainder of…
  • Trump administration faces record vacancies in Senate-confirmed postsThe Washington Post · 6 h agoBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. As the GOP faces a…
  • 9 US Senate races could determine control of the chamberFox News · 13 h agoThe Ben Shapiro Show’ host Ben Shapiro joins ‘One Nation’ to discuss nine U.S. Senate races that could determine control of the Senate, Michigan Democratic U.S. Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed and the 2028 presidential election. 9 US Senate…
  • Iowa’s Senate rivals pitch independence from their partiesPOLITICO · 14 h agoAshley Hinson qualified her pledge to be Trump’s strongest ally, while Josh Turek praised the president’s border record. U.S. Senate candidate Josh Turek speaks during a debate with his Republican opponent, Ashley Hinson, on Oct. 7, 2026…
  • Mississippi Senate race heats up amid Trump's Southern midterm campaignFox News · 5 h agoFmr RNC Deputy Comms Director Cassie Smedile discusses Trump's Southern midterm campaign, analyzing the Mississippi Senate matchup between Republican incumbent Cindy Hyde-Smith and Democratic candidate Scott Colom. Mississippi Senate race…
  • Trump calls Michigan Senate candidate El-Sayed a ‘jihadist’Fox News · 18 h agoPresident Donald Trump speaks at a rally in Port Huron, Michigan, about Michigan Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed, his family’s alleged support for terrorist organizations and Trump’s characterization of El-Sayed as a ‘jihadist.’ Trump…
  • Ohio Senate and governor races tighten ahead of midtermsFox News · 19 h agoFox News correspondent Alexandria Hoff reports on the closely watched Ohio Senate and governor races ahead of the midterm elections. Ohio Senate and governor races tighten ahead of midterms Fox News correspondent Alexandria Hoff reports on…
  • Senate Control May Come Down to Fishing Concerns in AlaskaNewsweek · 4 h agoOct 26, 2026 at 05:00 AM EDT While some midterms voters elsewhere are focused on familiar key issues, from immigration to inflation, Alaskans are debating salmon runs, bycatch limits, and the future of the state's fishing industry, issues…
  • How Christianity Became a Battleground in the Texas Senate RaceNewsweek · 26 h agoOct 25, 2026 at 05:00 AM EDT Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico are making Christianity a defining issue in the home stretch of Texas’ U.S. Senate race, offering sharply different visions of what faith should mean in…
  • Paxton and Talarico on the campaign trail in tight Senate raceCBS News · 16 h agoCBS News Chicago Sunday 5:30pm CBS News Detroit Weekend 6:30pm CBS News Miami 6:30pm CBS News New York Weekend 6:30pm CBS Philadelphia at 6:30pm KDKA News Weekends 6:30pm CBS News Texas 5:30pm
  • Blanche defends Trump-ordered lawsuit over Alaska Senate election certificationCNBC · 19 h agoThe lawsuit, filed last week, cites what it argues is likely voter confusion over the name Daniel J. Sullivan, a retired teacher also on the ballot. The DOJ said confusion over the two Sullivans could help former Alaska Democratic Rep…

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions