Indiana enacts data center moratorium by...?
30%December 31, 2028
- December 31, 20262%
- June 30, 202710%
- December 31, 202716%▲ 1
1 more
- December 31, 202830%
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OpenAI market share this week (OpenAI market share - Oct 19, 2026)
The odds
18.34%median
12.9%22.5%
Median 18.34%Middle half 18.18% – 18.55%
How the odds have moved
Median: 17.59% on Oct 20, 18.34% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 14.7% | 99% | 98¢ | $1.01 | 12.1K | ||
| Above 16.5% | 99% | 98¢ | $1.01 | 15.2K | ||
| Above 17.7% | 91% | ▲ 1 | 86¢ | 95¢ | $1.05 | 19.7K |
| Above 18.1% | 87% | ▲ 19 | 47¢ | 73¢ | $1.37 | 17.2K |
| Above 18.4% | 40% | ▼ 18 | 13¢ | 69¢ | $1.45 | 26.4K |
| Above 18.7% | 10% | ▼ 10 | 5¢ | 14¢ | $7.14 | 32.2K |
| Above 19.0% | 2% | ▼ 46 | 1¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | 21.0K |
| Above 19.9% | 1% | ▼ 4 | 1¢ | $100.00 | 16.7K | |
| Above 21.2% | 1% | ▲ 1 | 4¢ | $25.00 | 9.5K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: OpenAI, ChatGPT
Search ›-
OpenAI Opens ChatGPT Advertising to Nigerian BusinessesThe rollout introduces conversational monetization to one of Africa’s most vibrant digital economies, granting local organizations direct access to a rapidly expanding user base that relies on generative AI for daily productivity… -
Uber puts all 30,000 employees on ChatGPT WorkBuy One Founder Summit Ticket, Get a Second for Free. Register now. Uber and OpenAI announced an expansion of their partnership on Thursday, with the ride-share giant telling TechCrunch that its entire global workforce — some 30,000 people… -
OpenAI takes ChatGPT models to Google CloudOpenAI is expanding its cloud reach with Google, giving businesses more flexibility while Microsoft remains its primary cloud partner. OpenAI is making its artificial intelligence models widely available by bringing ChatGPT technology to… -
Uber gives more than 30,000 staff OpenAI’s ChatGPT Work agentThe company-wide rollout follows a 1,000-person pilot and runs on OpenAI's cheaper GPT-6.1 Sol model. Uber is rolling out ChatGPT Work, OpenAI’s office-task agent, to more than 30,000 employees after a 1,000-person pilot, OpenAI said. It… -
OpenAI models discover major PHP internet security flawFox News OpenAI models discover major PHP internet security flaw FOX Business national correspondent Darren Botelho joins 'Fox & Friends' to give the latest details after OpenAI uncovered a security flaw in PHP. FOX Business national… -
OpenAI agents are shutting off ways to monitor misbehaviorThe AI company disclosed that two of its models attempted to disable efforts to oversee the system’s behavior without human instruction, raising worries about staffers’ ability to oversee the most advanced AI systems. OpenAI’s autonomous… - Uber brings ChatGPT Work to all employees through OpenAI partnershipUber is expanding its use of artificial intelligence by bringing ChatGPT Work to all its employees through OpenAI. The move highlights how the ride hailing company is looking to make AI a bigger part of everyday work, as businesses…
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OpenAI makes its Jev competitor widely available as decision model competition heats upBuy One Founder Summit Ticket, Get a Second for Free. Register now. OpenAI made its Decisions API model widely available to users for the first time, entering the market for fast, cheap intelligence that recently made TypeSafe, a startup… -
OpenAI disables Browse with Bing in ChatGPTThis feature allowed ChatGPT to search the internet to help answer questions that benefit from recent information. "We have learned that the ChatGPT Browse beta can occasionally display content in ways we don't want. For example, if a user… -
OpenAI, Anthropic, and Nvidia had record lobbying quartersIt was a busy summer for AI lobbyists. Anthropic, OpenAI, and Nvidia each had their highest-spending lobbying quarter between July and September, federal disclosures show. Nvidia spent the most of the group at $2.2 million, followed by… -
Former OpenAI science lead launches Warp Science to automate wet labs with robotsBuy One Founder Summit Ticket, Get a Second for Free. Register now. Former OpenAI science lead Kevin Weil has launched Warp Sciences, a new AI startup focused on automating lab work for drug discovery. The company, which trains robots to… -
ChatGPT Teaches Messi Chess—On a Board It Set Up Wrong, With an Opening That Loses in Four MovesLionel Messi posted an ad on Instagram on Wednesday in which ChatGPT teaches him chess. The trillion-dollar chatbot flubbed the lesson so hard, Chess-knowing commentators online are losing it. The digital board on screen in the ad has each…
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All ai ›Next Fable Model (5.2+) released on...?
72%No release by October 31
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- October 2710%▲ 1
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- October 283%▲ 1
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- October 262%▼ 2
- October 302%▲ 1
- October 241%
- October 201%▼ 12
- October 251%
- October 19<1%▼ 2
- October 21<1%▼ 5
- October 22<1%▼ 14
- October 23<1%▼ 4
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by...?
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- October 241%▼ 1
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- October 3128%▲ 3
- December 3193%▼ 1
Which company has the best AI model end of October?
89%Google
- Google89%▲ 1
- Anthropic9%▼ 2
- OpenAI1%
18 more
- Meta<1%
- Moonshot<1%
- Alibaba<1%
- Baidu<1%
- Z.ai<1%
- Xiaomi<1%
- SpaceXAI<1%
- DeepSeek<1%
- Amazon<1%
- ByteDance<1%
- Nvidia<1%
- Thinky<1%
- MiniMax<1%
- Mistral<1%
- Meituan<1%
- Tencent<1%
- StepFun<1%
- Microsoft<1%
Next Claude Haiku Model (4.6+): Text Arena Debut?
1,410median
1,3801,480
Median 1,410Middle half 1,405 – 1,415
Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
49%Anthropic
- Anthropic49%▲ 3
- Google40%
- OpenAI6%▲ 1
12 more
- Meta1%
- xAI1%
- Alibaba1%
- Moonshot1%
- DeepSeek<1%
- Z.ai<1%
- Mistral<1%
- Microsoft<1%
- ByteDance<1%
- Meituan<1%
- Amazon<1%
- Baidu<1%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.