Brazil Presidential Election
>99%Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva>99%▲ 78
- Flávio Bolsonaro<1%▼ 78
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What will NYC subway average weekday ridership be in October 2026?
The odds
4.42Mmedian
4.00M4.60M
Median 4.42MMiddle half 4.35M – 4.46M
How the odds have moved
Median: 4.41M on Oct 20, 4.42M now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 4.1 million | 99% | 98¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | 44.8K | |
| Above 4.2 million | 98% | 97¢ | 98¢ | $1.02 | 59.2K | |
| Above 4.3 million | 95% | 94¢ | 95¢ | $1.05 | 24.2K | |
| Above 4.4 million | 59% | 58¢ | 59¢ | $1.69 | 51.9K | |
| Above 4.5 million | 4% | 3¢ | 4¢ | $25.00 | 136.3K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news
No recent headlines name this market's subject.
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All elections ›Serbia Parliamentary Election Winner
>99%Student List – Students Win
- Student List – Students Win>99%▲ 72
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Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory
99%Lula da Silva <4%
- Lula da Silva <4%99%▲ 82
- Lula da Silva 4-8%<1%
- Flávio Bolsonaro 12%+<1%▼ 1
5 more
- Flávio Bolsonaro 8-12%<1%▼ 6
- Flávio Bolsonaro 4-8%<1%▼ 36
- Flávio Bolsonaro <4%<1%▼ 38
- Lula da Silva 8-12%<1%
- Lula da Silva 12%+<1%
Which party will win the House in 2026?
92%Democratic Party
- Democratic Party92%▲ 1
- Republican Party8%▼ 1
Israeli Legislative Election Winner
69%Yashar
- Yashar69%▼ 2
- Likud30%▲ 2
- Together<1%
3 more
- Shas<1%
- The Democrats<1%
- Otzma Yehudit<1%
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
66%Democrats Sweep
- Democrats Sweep66%
- R Senate, D House26%
- Republicans Sweep8%
2 more
- D Senate, R House1%
- Other<1%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions