Nuevo León Governor winner? (2027)

Kalshi Elections › Around the world Closes Jun 6, 2028 · $9 today · $729 traded · $471 at stake · prices read 2 h ago

The odds

20%Adrián de la Garza Santos

Adrián de la Garza Santos20%
Mariana Rodríguez Cantú18%
Clara Luz Flores Carrales11%▲ 1
Luis Donaldo Colosio Riojas8%
Alma Rosa Marroquín Escamilla2%
Andrés Mijes Llovera2%
Carlos de la Fuente Flores2%
Félix Arratia Cruz2%
Felipe de Jesús Cantú Rodríguez2%
Fernando Jesús Margáin Sada2%
Jesús Alberto Elizondo2%
Judith Díaz Delgado2%

12 more

Raúl Lozano Caballero2%
Tatiana Clouthier Carrillo2%
Waldo Fernández González2%▲ 1
Ivonne Liliana Álvarez García2%
César Garza Arredondo2%
Annia Gómez Cárdenas2%
Arturo Salinas Garza2%
Daniel Carrillo Martínez2%
Héctor García García2%
Martha Herrera González2%
Miguel Flores Serna2%
David de la Peña Marroquín2%

How the odds have moved

Adrián de la Garza Santos: 18% on Oct 19, 20% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Why it moved

Oct 20, 12 PM ETAdrián de la Garza Santos: 18% → 25%

No headline about it in the hours around this move.

The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Adrián de la Garza Santos	20%		20¢	27¢	$3.70	359
Mariana Rodríguez Cantú	18%		18¢	26¢	$3.85	683
Clara Luz Flores Carrales	11%	▲ 1	10¢	19¢	$5.26	606
Luis Donaldo Colosio Riojas	8%		6¢	14¢	$7.14	450
Alma Rosa Marroquín Escamilla	2%			6¢	$16.67	450
Andrés Mijes Llovera	2%			6¢	$16.67	675
Carlos de la Fuente Flores	2%			6¢	$16.67	225
Félix Arratia Cruz	2%			6¢	$16.67	550
Felipe de Jesús Cantú Rodríguez	2%			6¢	$16.67	450
Fernando Jesús Margáin Sada	2%			6¢	$16.67	450
Jesús Alberto Elizondo	2%			6¢	$16.67	225
Judith Díaz Delgado	2%			6¢	$16.67	450
Raúl Lozano Caballero	2%			6¢	$16.67	225
Tatiana Clouthier Carrillo	2%			6¢	$16.67	4.3K
Waldo Fernández González	2%	▲ 1		6¢	$16.67	1.5K
Ivonne Liliana Álvarez García	2%			6¢	$16.67	450
César Garza Arredondo	2%			6¢	$16.67	225
Annia Gómez Cárdenas	2%			5¢	$20.00	225
Arturo Salinas Garza	2%			5¢	$20.00	225
Daniel Carrillo Martínez	2%			5¢	$20.00	225
Héctor García García	2%			5¢	$20.00	450
Martha Herrera González	2%			5¢	$20.00	450
Miguel Flores Serna	2%			5¢	$20.00	225
David de la Peña Marroquín	2%			5¢	$20.00	450

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Nuevo León Governor, Mariana Rodríguez Cantú, Clara Luz Flores Carrales

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UP: Governor, Minister from Mexican state of Nuevo Leon visit Taj MahalLokmat Times · 14 days agoAgra (Uttar Pradesh) [India], August 6 : Samuel Alejandro Garcia Sepulveda, the Governor of the Mexican state of Nuevo Leon, and Ivan Rivas Rodriguez, the Minister of Economy of Nuevo Leon, visited the Taj Mahal on Sunday. Governor…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onInstituto Estatal Electoral y de Participación Ciudadana de Nuevo León (IEEPCNL), Instituto Nacional Electoral (INE)

Trading closesJun 6, 2028 10:00 AM ET

Traded$729 (14,532 contracts)

Today$9

This week$9

At stake$471

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If Adrián de la Garza Santos wins the 2027 Nuevo León gubernatorial election, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions