Will NJ Transit rail on-time performance reach 90% in November? (November 2026)

Kalshi Elections Closes Jan 5, 2027 · $3.6K traded · $826 at stake · prices read 2 h ago

The odds

23%chance

How the odds have moved

Yes: 23% on Oct 20, 23% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Yes	23%		22¢	23¢	$4.35	15.8K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: NJ Transit

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New Jersey bill offering 50% toll, NJ Transit discounts for veterans advances in SenateWRNJ Radio · 7 days agoTRENTON, N.J. — Legislation that would provide a 50% discount on certain tolls and NJ Transit fares for military service members, veterans, auxiliary members and Gold Star family members has advanced out of the Senate Military and…
House subpoenas Sherrill administration over non-citizen voter registrationsPress of Atlantic City · 4 days agoNew Jersey Gov. Mikie Sherrill announced Tuesday that she will defy a Justice Department request for information about the identities of the 6,600 non-citizens who were erroneously registered to vote in the Garden State. Two congressional…
Insider NJ’s Morning Intelligence Briefing: 10/21/2026Insider NJ · 5 days agoQUOTE OF THE DAY: "At the time, this was a really cool thing. But now surveillance has become so prevalent in our everyday lives. It’s so invasive." - A former Rutgers student on the university's AI-capable surveillance system TOP STORY…
Planning Board Approves Six-Story Building And Public Plaza At Centurion Union Center In Union, New JerseyNew York YIMBY · 5 days agoBy: Max Gillespie 7:00 am on October 21, 2026 Setbacks above the fourth and fifth floors will create private outdoor terraces for upper-level residences. Per MHS Architecture, the design draws on the materials, colors, and fenestration of…
Request Accessfederalregister.gov · 6 days agoThis document provides the public notice that New Jersey Transit Rail Operations, Inc. (NJ Transit) petitioned FRA seeking approval to discontinue or modify a signal system. Due to aggressive automated scraping of FederalRegister.gov and…
Before N.J. spends more on the Glassboro-Camden Line, show us the numbers | Opinionnj.com · 8 days agoNew Jersey is still spending engineering money on the Glassboro-Camden Line. But the study used to justify that spending no longer describes the project. In February 2021, the final environmental impact statement assumed two vehicle…
Longtime mayor and independent challenger pitch different paths for LindenNJTODAY.NEWS · 8 days agoLinden voters will choose a mayor Nov. 3. Democratic Mayor Derek Armstead is asking for another term after a dozen years in office, but independent Carlos A. Rivas, a former Democratic councilman and school board president, says City Hall…
Booker rival who ‘shoots from the hip’ hopes viral debate moment can break GOP’s Senate droughtFox News · 9 days agoNew Jersey GOP nominee Justin Murphy drew national attention after urging Trump to "finish" the Iran war, prompting Booker's stunned reaction. A New Jersey attorney and former municipal official who made waves during his debate with Sen…
Hochul, Blakeman face off in New York governor's debateCBS News · 12 days agoCBS News - The 5:33 | Legacy of the LIRR Massacre - On The Dot with David Schechter: Wildfires & Climate Change Hochul, Blakeman face off in New York governor's debate Mayor Mamdani defends NYPD Commissioner Tisch amid criticism over…
Kimberly Guilfoyle to resign as ambassador to Greece over corruption allegationsCBS News · 12 days agoCBS News - The 5:33 | Legacy of the LIRR Massacre - On The Dot with David Schechter: Wildfires & Climate Change Kimberly Guilfoyle to resign as ambassador to Greece over corruption allegations Sunny fall day with warm temperatures for NYC…
Lawmakers accuse Target of allowing ICE to use Bronx store parking lot for enforcementCBS News · 12 days agoCBS News - The 5:33 | Legacy of the LIRR Massacre - On The Dot with David Schechter: Wildfires & Climate Change Lawmakers accuse Target of allowing ICE to use Bronx store parking lot for enforcement Mayor Mamdani defends NYPD Commissioner…
Demonstrators rally outside NYC Target near area where ICE shooting happenedCBS News · 12 days agoDemonstrators rally outside NYC Target near area of ICE shooting happened CBS News - The 5:33 | Legacy of the LIRR Massacre - On The Dot with David Schechter: Wildfires & Climate Change Demonstrators rally outside NYC Target near area of…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onNJ TRANSIT

Trading closesJan 5, 2027 9:59 AM ET

Traded$3.6K (15,785 contracts)

This week$225

At stake$826

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If NJ TRANSIT's systemwide monthly rail on-time performance, all causes (not the Amtrak-adjusted figure) is above 90% in November 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions