Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/26 - 11/1)
189.5median
140230
Median 189.5Middle half 177.2 – 200.8
Install
Will Northern Ireland announce a reunification referendum? (Before 2030)
The odds
14%chance
How the odds have moved
Yes: 13% on Oct 19, 14% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 14% | 10¢ | 18¢ | $5.56 | 4.1K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Northern Ireland
Search ›-
BBC Sport NI right on cue at Northern Ireland OpenBBC Sport NI's Jana McCabe and Joel Bell visit the Waterfront Hall to try out snooker at the Northern Ireland Open. BBC Sport NI right on cue at Northern Ireland Open. Video, 00:01:39BBC Sport NI right on cue at Northern Ireland Open John… -
Former president of Athletics Northern Ireland denies child sex offencesA former president of Athletics Northern Ireland has pleaded not guilty to two child sex offences, including engaging in sexual activity with a child and sexual touching of a child. Gerry Carson, 84, from Kingsway, Dunmurry in County… -
Parade Dispute Rekindles Sectarian Tensions In Northern IrelandA planned Protestant parade through a Catholic area triggered a two-week standoff in Northern Ireland earlier this October, prompting Britain’s Northern Ireland Secretary to overturn local authorities’ decision to permit the procession… -
Jak Jones completes semi-final line-up at Northern Ireland OpenJak Jones came through a final frame decider to book his spot in the semi-finals of the Northern Ireland Open. Jak Jones came through a final frame decider to book his spot in the semi-finals of the Northern Ireland Open A break of 84 in… -
Billionaire Golfer Tiger Woods Reportedly Set to Design £30 Million Northern Ireland LinksGalgorm unveiled its plans in July 2025. According to the company, construction would begin in 2026, subject to planning approval, and the course would open in 2029. Galgorm says its total investment in Northern Ireland’s north-west… -
New Northern Ireland weather warning issued as Storm Boelo arrivesStorm Boelo is bringing strong winds to Northern Ireland this weekend. A yellow weather warning covering all six counties came into force at 10am on Saturday and remains in place until noon on Sunday. An amber warning is in place for… -
Northern Irish Rangers fans warned of ferry chaos for Saints tieRangers supporters travelling from Northern Ireland to the St Johnstone clash face cancelled ferries, severe winds from Storm Boelo and tight alternative travel options. Northern Irish Rangers supporters planning to travel to Scotland for… -
Storm Boelo LIVE updates as gale force winds set to batter Northern IrelandNorthern Ireland is set for a very wet and windy weekend as Storm Boelo batters the country with gale-force winds forecast. The Met Office has said: "Storm Boelo bringing a very windy spell this weekend with some disruption possible across… -
Northern Ireland can become a global hub for trusted AINorthern Ireland has spent decades building an economy around attracting investment, developing skills and punching above its weight in sectors such as aerospace, virtual production, cyber security and financial services. The next… -
Call for a significant increase in Northern Ireland’s farm support budgetSpeaking after a recent meeting that involved Ulster Unionist Party representatives and the Secretary of State, she confirmed that additional public monies will be required as agriculture invests in its future. Armstrong added: “The farm… -
Tiger Woods to design new golf course in Northern IrelandTiger Woods is set to design the first new links course in Northern Ireland in over 100 years. The new course will be in Bellarena, County Derry, between Coleraine and Limavady, and last year luxury hospitality group Galgorm Collection… -
Snooker ref leaves Northern Ireland Open crowd in stitches with hilarious offer to help Mark Williams with tricky potA SNOOKER referee left fans in stitches after offering Mark Williams his GLASSES to help him pull off a tricky pot. The hilarious moment unfolded during the three-time world champion’s Northern Ireland Open quarter-final against David…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions