Will the S&P finish positive this year? (2026)
91%chance
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How high will the Nikkei 225 get in 2026?
The odds
7%At least ¥73,000
Nikkei 225 now 62,693.16 −0.34% 72,00081,000
Above today's price —
How the odds have moved
At least ¥73,000: 8% on Oct 20, 7% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least ¥73,000 | 7% | 45¢ | $2.22 | 7.5K | ||
| At least ¥74,000 | 7% | 1¢ | 32¢ | $3.13 | 6.7K | |
| At least ¥75,000 | 7% | 23¢ | $4.35 | 3.4K | ||
| At least ¥76,000 | 6% | 15¢ | $6.67 | 3.5K | ||
| At least ¥77,000 | 3% | ▼ 2 | 5¢ | $20.00 | 2.9K | |
| At least ¥78,000 | 2% | ▼ 2 | 4¢ | $25.00 | 2.6K | |
| At least ¥79,000 | 2% | ▼ 1 | 4¢ | $25.00 | 3.1K | |
| At least ¥80,000 | 1% | ▼ 1 | 2¢ | $50.00 | 68.00 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Nikkei
Search ›- Japan's Nikkei gauge crosses 71,000 on US-Iran peace dealJapan's Nikkei share gauge surged past key 71,000 level for the first time on Thursday after the United States and Iran extended their ceasefire, easing geopolitical tensions and supporting risk... Japan's Nikkei gauge crosses 71,000 on…
- Japan's Nikkei snaps five-day winning run on Micron earnings cautionJapan's Nikkei share gauge snapped a five-day winning streak on Monday, as Nasdaq futures weakened ahead of US memory maker Micron Technology's earnings report later in the week. The... Japan's Nikkei snaps five-day winning run on Micron…
- Japan's Nikkei slumps, yen trades above 160 level on tech, Gulf concernsJapan's Nikkei share average sank by the most in three months while the yen traded above 160 per dollar on Monday on renewed concerns about technology valuations and a flare-up in Middle East... Japan's Nikkei slumps, yen trades above 160…
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Japan to arrange private investments worth $6.36 billion in Bangladesh, Nikkei reportsJapan will agree to arrange 1 trillion yen ($6.36 billion) in private-sector investments in Bangladesh over the next five years, the Nikkei newspaper reported today. Japan Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi will host her Bangladesh… -
Nikkei Average continues to fall but narrows losses❗️ Semiconductor stocks recover, buying in real estate and retailWe have summarized the key points of today's Japanese stock market in an easy-to-understand way!Just look at this and you'll be fine for the daily market!※Updated daily! Now, let's explain the market in detail! Nasdaq 100 and SOX index… - Nikkei Plunges 1,713 Points as AI Sell-Off DeepensTOKYO - Japan's financial markets suffered another sharp setback on October 22 as heavy selling in semiconductor and artificial intelligence-related stocks sent the Nikkei 225 down 1,713.40 points, or 2.65%, to 62,907.84, its lowest…
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Nippon Steel to spend $3 billion in U.S. Steel plant equipment upgrade, Nikkei reportsThe Nippon Steel logo is displayed at the company's East Nippon Works Kimitsu Area plant in Kimitsu, east of Tokyo, Japan May 26, 2025. REUTERS/Issei Kato Oct 22 (Reuters) - Nippon Steel will invest about $3 billion in the U.S… -
[Memorandum] Lam Research drops 9% despite "record profits" - $200 billion in equipment stock value vanishes, "supply constraints" sink the Nikkei 225 for two consecutive days via Tokyo Electron and AdvantestOn October 21, 2026, major U.S. semiconductor manufacturing equipment maker Lam Research announced its financial results for the July-September quarter (Q1 fiscal year 2027), reporting revenue of $8.22 billion—a record high for a single… -
Nippon Steel to spend $3 billion on U.S. Steel plant in Pennsylvania, Nikkei reportsTradingView Nippon Steel to spend $3 billion on U.S. Steel plant in Pennsylvania, Nikkei reports -
Global Markets Crash Today as Gold, Silver, Nikkei and KOSPI FallGold fell over 1% to around $4,087 per ounce, while silver dropped more than 2.4% to $56.20. Japan’s Nikkei fell around 2.3%, with reported one-day market losses reaching ¥17.8 trillion. Bitcoin fell below $83,000, while Ethereum dropped… -
October 21, 2026 | Nikkei rebounds by +545 yen: Buybacks in AI and semiconductor stocks, supported by strong SpaceX earningsyuki dream (Music Producer / Individual Investor with 30 years of financial experience)📊 Today's Market Overview The Nikkei Stock Average closed today at 64,621.24 yen (up 545.82 yen, +0.85% from the previous day). This is its first… -
Nikkei Sinks More Than 2% as Tokyo Electron Leads Chip Rout and AI Spending Doubts Rattle Japanese InvestorsJapanese stocks fell sharply on Thursday as a sell-off in semiconductor shares intensified through the session, with investors increasingly worried that the massive spending on artificial intelligence that has powered markets this year may…
Related markets
All indexes ›10Y US Treasury yield on Dec 31, 2027?
5.28%median
1.74%8.24%
Median 5.28%Middle half 4.05% – 6.1%
IBOVESPA closing level on Oct 26, 2026
210,617median
189,000221,000
Median 210,617Middle half 199,868 – 215,405
Nikkei 225: Close Price End of 2026
66,529median
50,00090,000
Median 66,529Middle half 58,211 – 72,814
What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit in October 2026?
$777.34high with an even chance
Traders see an even chance of trading as high as $777.34 and as low as $751.67.
- Reaches $770>99%
- Reaches $78032%
- Falls to $760>99%
- Falls to $75040%
Already reached: ↑ $780, ↑ $770, ↓ $760, ↑ $770, ↑ $770, ↓ $770
What will S&P 500 (SPX) hit by end of December?
48%↑ $8,000
Traders see as low as 7,307.
- Reaches 8,00048%
- Reaches 8,20021%
- Falls to 7,40066%
- Falls to 7,20032%
Already reached: ↑ $7,800, ↑ $7,600, ↑ $7,400, ↓ $6,600, ↓ $6,400
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions