Brazil Presidential Election
69%Flávio Bolsonaro
- Flávio Bolsonaro69%▼ 14
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva31%▲ 14
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Who will be the next Prime Minister of the UK? (Before Jan 1, 2035)
The odds
27%Shabana Mahmood
- Shabana Mahmood27%
- Nigel Farage26%
- Kemi Badenoch21%
- Robert Jenrick6%
- Zia Yusuf5%
- Angela Rayner4%
- Rupert Lowe4%
- Al Carns4%
- Jess Phillips4%
- John Healey3%
- Richard Tice3%
- Jonathan Reynolds3%
17 more
- Darren Jones3%
- Wes Streeting3%
- Louise Haigh3%
- No new person3%
- Yvette Cooper3%
- Ed Miliband3%
- Bridget Phillipson3%
- Lisa Nandy3%
- Mel Stride3%
- Boris Johnson3%
- Pat McFadden3%
- Lucy Powell3%
- Emma Reynolds3%
- James Cleverly3%
- Rachel Reeves3%
- Ed Davey3%
- Keir Starmer2%
How the odds have moved
Shabana Mahmood: 23% on Oct 19, 27% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shabana Mahmood | 27% | 24¢ | 29¢ | $3.45 | 1.0K | |
| Nigel Farage | 26% | 21¢ | 30¢ | $3.33 | 30.00 | |
| Kemi Badenoch | 21% | 18¢ | 24¢ | $4.17 | 5.00 | |
| Robert Jenrick | 6% | 1¢ | 10¢ | $10.00 | ||
| Zia Yusuf | 5% | 1¢ | 8¢ | $12.50 | ||
| Angela Rayner | 4% | 8¢ | $12.50 | 3.00 | ||
| Rupert Lowe | 4% | 2¢ | 5¢ | $20.00 | 494 | |
| Al Carns | 4% | 1¢ | 6¢ | $16.67 | ||
| Jess Phillips | 4% | 1¢ | 6¢ | $16.67 | ||
| John Healey | 3% | 6¢ | $16.67 | |||
| Richard Tice | 3% | 1¢ | 5¢ | $20.00 | 1.00 | |
| Jonathan Reynolds | 3% | 6¢ | $16.67 | |||
| Darren Jones | 3% | 1¢ | 5¢ | $20.00 | ||
| Wes Streeting | 3% | 5¢ | $20.00 | |||
| Louise Haigh | 3% | 5¢ | $20.00 | |||
| No new person | 3% | 5¢ | $20.00 | |||
| Yvette Cooper | 3% | 5¢ | $20.00 | |||
| Ed Miliband | 3% | 5¢ | $20.00 | |||
| Bridget Phillipson | 3% | 5¢ | $20.00 | |||
| Lisa Nandy | 3% | 5¢ | $20.00 | |||
| Mel Stride | 3% | 5¢ | $20.00 | |||
| Boris Johnson | 3% | 5¢ | $20.00 | |||
| Pat McFadden | 3% | 5¢ | $20.00 | 1.00 | ||
| Lucy Powell | 3% | 5¢ | $20.00 | |||
| Emma Reynolds | 3% | 5¢ | $20.00 | |||
| James Cleverly | 3% | 5¢ | $20.00 | |||
| Rachel Reeves | 3% | 5¢ | $20.00 | |||
| Ed Davey | 3% | 5¢ | $20.00 | |||
| Keir Starmer | 2% | 4¢ | $25.00 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Prime Minister, Shabana Mahmood, Nigel Farage
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Former Tory candidate suspended over contract killer claims was adviser in Kemi Badenoch’s officeSources close to Tory leader say Jack Ross, who faces party investigation after undercover report, worked as social media consultant A former Conservative election candidate who was suspended after he was filmed discussing the cost of… -
India's Narendra Modi sworn in for third term as prime ministerJune 9, 2024 / 11:11 AM EDT / AP India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi took office for a third consecutive term on Sunday, but it may hold more challenges for the popular-but-polarizing leader than his past decade in power. His Hindu… -
Labour surge to their largest poll lead since the general election - with Tories ahead of Reform UK as Kemi Badenoch's popularity growsLabour has surged to its largest poll lead since the 2024 general election as the party continues to enjoy a 'bounce' under Andy Burnham's leadership. The latest Ipsos survey puts Labour on 32 per cent support, which is up five percentage… -
Angela Rayner signals Shabana Mahmood will weaken Labour's immigration crackdown after she led revolt against 'un-British' reformsAngela Rayner today signalled that Shabana Mahmood will weaken Labour's proposed immigration crackdown after she led a revolt against 'un-British' reforms. Ms Mahmood, the Home Secretary, has fronted plans to make migrant workers wait… -
Nigel Farage erupts at Burnham Brexit betrayal as Angela Rayner hints at EU schemeNigel Farage has hit out at a Brexit betrayal after an arch-Remainer and ally of Andy Burnham hinted she would back rejoining freedom of movement. Reports emerged that Mr Burnham is open to heading back into the scheme, which allows for… -
Kemi Badenoch: This showman PM is treating the job like reality TVThe Times Kemi Badenoch: This showman PM is treating the job like reality TV Andy Burnham’s clumsy PMQs and celebrity television appearances cannot disguise the absence of an economic plan, the Conservative leader writes £1 for 3 months… -
Burnham accused of ‘total betrayal’ over possible return to free movement with EU – as Nigel Farage slams ‘deluded’ PMANDY Burnham has been accused of a “total betrayal” after paving the way for a return to freedom of movement with the EU. The Prime Minister said he wanted an “honest discussion” about immigration ties to the EU as part of a new… -
Cabinet split widens as minister refuses to back Shabana Mahmood’s immigration plansMiatta Fahnbulleh avoids explicitly expressing support for 15-year path to permanent residency for foreign workers A cabinet split over Shabana Mahmood’s immigration policy has deepened after the energy secretary refused to say she backed… -
The Real Nigel Farage by John Sweeney: Author offers a trial of the protagonistA hearing from which defence counsel is largely absent and where the voters must be the ultimate judge The Real Nigel Farage by John Sweeney: Author offers a trial of the protagonist A hearing from which defence counsel is largely absent… -
'Stakes could not be higher as Labour take the fight to Nigel Farage and Reform'Lucy Powell tore into Nigel Farage(Image: Getty Images) Being elected as Labour’s Deputy Leader one year ago was a true honour. I promised to take back the political megaphone and set out a clear message of what we stand for and whose side… -
Nigel Farage would lose head-to-head contest to every other political leader except Zack Polanski, poll showsReform leader even beaten by the head of the party that has outflanked his on the right, Restore’s Rupert Lowe Nigel Farage would lose in a direct head-to-head with every other political leader except Zack Polanski, a new survey has shown… -
Andy Burnham looks set to dilute big immigration crackdown in bid to avert Labour civil war after refusing to fully commit to Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood’s immigration crackdownAndy Burnham looks set to dilute a big immigration crackdown in a bid to prevent Labour being plunged into a full-blown civil war. The Prime Minister refused today to fully commit to Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood’s reforms and is poised…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions