Texas Senate winner? (2026)
65%James Talarico
- James Talarico65%
- Ken Paxton36%
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Who will be the next Senate Judiciary chair? (Before Jan 1, 2028)
The odds
51%Sheldon Whitehouse
- Sheldon Whitehouse51%
- Mike Lee32%
- Ted Cruz9%
- Josh Hawley4%
- Amy Klobuchar3%
How the odds have moved
Sheldon Whitehouse: 52% on Oct 20, 51% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sheldon Whitehouse | 51% | 50¢ | 54¢ | $1.85 | 1.0K | |
| Mike Lee | 32% | 30¢ | 35¢ | $2.86 | 3.5K | |
| Ted Cruz | 9% | 8¢ | 11¢ | $9.09 | 842 | |
| Josh Hawley | 4% | 1¢ | 7¢ | $14.29 | 7.00 | |
| Amy Klobuchar | 3% | 1¢ | 5¢ | $20.00 | 8.00 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Senate Judiciary, Sheldon Whitehouse, Mike Lee
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WATCH: Ted Cruz offers clarity to content creator regarding Israel and AIPACSen. Ted Cruz spoke with political commentator Mason Lemme, laying out the benefits America gets from partnering with Israel and defending AIPAC's donations as American Jews exercising their rights. Ted Cruz spoke with political… -
Panicked Ted Cruz admits 'uphill battle' in Texas: 'We have to take this threat seriously'Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) has a dire warning for Republican donors: his state could be slipping away to Democrats. “I can’t believe I’m actually writing you this, but the time has come,” reads a fundraising email sent over the weekend under… -
Texas Senator Ted Cruz’s appearance at United States GP podium ceremony leads to loud boos from fansTexas Senator and Chief of the Senate Commerce Committee Ted Cruz appeared on the podium for Formula 1’s United States Grand Prix in Austin. Cruz has been an elected member of the United States Senate from Texas since 2013, but likely did… -
Sen. Sheldon WhitehouseMS NOW’s O’Donnell Claims Trump Is Funding Wars Against U.S. Troops On Monday evening, MS NOW’s Lawrence O’Donnell touted that a potential Democratic Senate majority would lead to a bill passed to cease President Trump’s purchase of… -
Ted Cruz rallies with Rick Jackson with GOP anxious about voter turnoutU.S. Sen. Ted Cruz rallied with gubernatorial candidate Rick Jackson in Henry County on Friday. Jackson plans to attend two separate weekend rallies alongside Donald Trump and Gov. Brian Kemp. Republicans are expressing concern over… -
Ted Cruz Led a 128-Candidate Race at 2.1%. The 44% Favourite Was Eighth by VolumeI run a visa agency in Bali. The other half of my week goes into Apify Actors, and one of them is an election board: every political contract on Kalshi and Polymarket in one table, same field names for both, so you can read the two venues… -
Georgetown Law student association denounces Ted Cruz staffer over Muslim Brotherhood lectureThe association passed a resolution accusing Erielle Azerrad of Islamophobia after she appeared on campus to discuss the Muslim Brotherhood and her work representing victims of terrorism Bill O'Leary/The Washington Post via Getty Images A… -
How to build a police stateTo understand where Trump is trying to take the US, we should look to the authoritarian playbook of his favorite ally: El Salvador’s Nayib Bukele One afternoon last year, Donald Trump welcomed “a friend” to the White House – El Salvador’s… -
Ted Cruz’s college sports win could be a loss for Texas footballSen. Ted Cruz watched from the sidelines during the Nov. 28, 2025 SEC football game between the Longhorns and the Aggies. Cruz's Protect College Sports Act could shift money toward Texas Tech, narrowing the financial advantage enjoyed by… -
Senate Judiciary Comittee advances measures aimed at expanding support to law enforcementThe six bills were advanced as part of a bipartisan 'back the blue' effort during National Police Week. Senate Judiciary Comittee advances measures aimed at expanding support to law enforcement The six bills were advanced as part of a… -
Beto O’Rourke yard signs are everywhere. Where are Ted Cruz’s?by Abby Livingston and Patrick Svitek, The Texas Tribune August 29, 2018 GEORGETOWN – The conversation unfolding before a campaign event for U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz here last week echoed similar ones popping up among Republican groups around… -
Ted Cruz rants about ‘left-wing transgender witches’ who hate Donald TrumpTed Cruz drew backlash after saying he believed ‘left-wing transgender witches’ despised Donald Trump. (Getty Images) Ted Cruz has drawn backlash after telling Fox News that he believed left-wing transgender people despised Donald Trump…
Related markets
All senate ›Texas Senate Election Winner
65%James Talarico (D)
- James Talarico (D)65%▲ 1
- Ken Paxton (R)36%▼ 1
Which party will win the Senate in 2026?
65%Democratic Party
- Democratic Party65%▼ 2
- Republican Party36%▲ 2
2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
63%Democrats sweep
- Democrats sweep63%▼ 1
- D-House, R-Senate26%▲ 1
- Republicans sweep10%▲ 1
1 more
- R-House, D-Senate1%
Michigan Senate winner? (2026)
66%Abdul El-Sayed
- Abdul El-Sayed66%▼ 2
- Mike Rogers34%▲ 3
Minnesota Senate winner? (2026)
84%Peggy Flanagan
- Peggy Flanagan84%▲ 1
- Michele Tafoya16%▼ 2
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions