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Who will become Chancellor of Germany following the next federal election? (Before Aug 26, 2029)
The odds
44%Alice Weidel
- Alice Weidel44%▲ 2
- Friedrich Merz16%
- Lars Klingbeil8%
- Baerbel Bas8%
- No one8%
- Felix Banaszak5%
How the odds have moved
Alice Weidel: 40% on Oct 20, 44% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
- Oct 20, 10 PM ETAlice Weidel: 40% → 47%
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alice Weidel | 44% | ▲ 2 | 40¢ | 48¢ | $2.08 | 2.8K |
| Friedrich Merz | 16% | 11¢ | 20¢ | $5.00 | 719 | |
| Lars Klingbeil | 8% | 3¢ | 12¢ | $8.33 | ||
| Baerbel Bas | 8% | 3¢ | 12¢ | $8.33 | ||
| No one | 8% | 3¢ | 12¢ | $8.33 | 16.00 | |
| Felix Banaszak | 5% | 1¢ | 9¢ | $11.11 | 182 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Chancellor of Germany, Alice Weidel, Friedrich Merz
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Who is Friedrich Merz, the man on course to lead Germany after its election?February 24, 2025 / 1:09 PM EST / CBS/AP Friedrich Merz, who is on course to become post-World War II Germany's 10th chancellor after the country's election, has vowed to prioritize European unity and the continent's security as it… -
German AfD Party Leader Alice Weidel Outlines Severity of German Economic ProblemAlternative for Deutschland (AfD) party leader Alice Weidel represents the opposition leader within the current German political system. The AfD party is on the rise within Germany as the severe leftist and globalist policies carried out… -
AfD’s Alice Weidel urges quick Ukraine talks and a return to cheap Russian energyWeidel said the far-right AfD is in “talks” to bridge differences with France’s National Rally that largely concern Russia. Alice Weidel, co-leader of the far-right Alternative for Germany party, told European lawmakers on Wednesday that… -
AfD's Alice Weidel to unveil plan to cut EU powers — reportThe far-right AfD will propose slashing powers of the European Union when it presents its policy paper on Wednesday, Politico reports. Alice Weidel, the co-leader of Germany's far-right AfD, is expected to present her party's policy for… -
Alice Weidel Says Germany Cannot Afford Ukraine and Its Nuclear Shutdown, and Predicts a European Bond CrisisMinton Beddoes opened with a simple image: is the German economy a car that needs repairs, or a whole new model? Weidel chose neither. The parts themselves are broken, she said, and the entire vehicle must be rebuilt. Her first target is… -
Germany Politics Explained, Who Holds Power in 2026Germany is a democratic federal parliamentary republic where legislative power rests with the Bundestag and the Bundesrat, the body representing Germany’s regional states. The Federal Constitutional Court serves as the independent… -
Germany's Merz calls for lower electricity tax for all consumersChancellor Friedrich Merz on Saturday said his government must reduce energy costs for all consumers in Germany next year. "If it is at all possible - and I think it is - the electricity tax must be cut so that people have more money in… -
AfD’s Alice Weidel to unveil plan to downsize the EUThe far-right party leader will present her party’s ideas for the EU at the European Parliament. STRASBOURG — The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) wants to scrap the directly elected European Parliament, shrink the European… -
Leaked trove reveals extent of far-right AfD’s efforts to court Trump and Maga alliesDocuments show German party’s scramble to request support after president’s 2016 election win and co-leader’s pursuit of Steve Bannon A data leak from Germany’s far-right German Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) has revealed the extent of… -
Germany investing in military amid concerns over Putin, uncertainty about U.S. support for European defenseDecember 14, 2025 / 7:50 PM EST / CBS News Nearly four years after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Germany is beefing up its security, increasing military enlistment and investing in an innovative array of defense technology… -
Germany nudges up tax outlook to 2030, but no extra budget slack in 2027In an emailed statement, the Finance Ministry said Germany now anticipates a modest increase in total tax revenue through 2030 versus May. For this year, federal tax income is projected at €379.1 billion, with a dollar equivalent of $425… -
Leaked emails show AfD co-leader’s U-turn on ‘explosive’ nationalist colleagueAlice Weidel once said Björn Höcke’s racial discourse was “deeply problematic.” Now she deems him suitable for a cabinet position. BERLIN — As she was climbing the ranks of far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) a decade ago, Alice Weidel…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions