Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/26 - 11/1)
189.5median
140230
Median 189.5Middle half 177.2 – 200.8
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Who will be the next President of the European Central Bank? (Before Jan 1, 2028)
The odds
39%Pablo Hernández de Cos
- Pablo Hernández de Cos39%▲ 1
- Klaas Knot32%
- François Villeroy de Galhau7%
- Nadia Calviño6%
- Fabio Panetta5%
- Olli Rehn4%
- Joachim Nagel2%
How the odds have moved
Pablo Hernández de Cos: 37% on Oct 20, 39% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pablo Hernández de Cos | 39% | ▲ 1 | 35¢ | 43¢ | $2.33 | 3.1K |
| Klaas Knot | 32% | 31¢ | 32¢ | $3.13 | 289 | |
| François Villeroy de Galhau | 7% | 4¢ | 10¢ | $10.00 | 1.2K | |
| Nadia Calviño | 6% | 2¢ | 9¢ | $11.11 | 689 | |
| Fabio Panetta | 5% | 2¢ | 8¢ | $12.50 | 689 | |
| Olli Rehn | 4% | 1¢ | 7¢ | $14.29 | 689 | |
| Joachim Nagel | 2% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | 804 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: European Central Bank, Klaas Knot
Search ›-
European Central Bank: One more hike then extended plateau – CommerzbankCommerzbank economists expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to leave its deposit rate at 2.50% in October, then raise it to 2.75% in December in response to persistent Eurozone inflation. With rates already seen as slightly restrictive… - European Central Bank’s Piero Cipollone to Talk DigitalPiero Cipollone will discuss digital euro developments today. Here's why this matters for the future of digital currencies. Piero Cipollone will speak about the digital euro today. The ECB aims to explore the future of digital currencies…
- European Central Bank: Gradual tightening points to December hike – RabobankRabobank’s Bas van Geffen expects the European Central Bank (ECB) to keep policy unchanged at its October meeting, with the deposit rate at 2.50%, and to deliver a final hike in December. He highlights persistent upside inflation risks but…
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European Central Bank: December hike signalled as markets overprice path – NomuraNomura’s Andrzej Szczepaniak, George Buckley and Josie Anderson expect the ECB to keep the depo rate at 2.50% on 29 October, maintaining current quantitative tightening guidance. They project further rate hikes in December 2026 and March… -
European Central Bank: Rising bond yields favor an October hold – ING"Back in September, the ECB surprised markets with a more hawkish message, at least between the lines. With headline inflation higher for longer and core inflation expected to increase in 2027, the stage seemed set for at least one more… -
European Central Bank: Communication focus as French spreads widen – NordeaNordea’s Jan von Gerich expects the ECB to keep rates unchanged at the October Governing Council meeting, with the next 25bp hike still likely in December. He highlights the sharp widening in French government bond spreads and tighter… - European Central Bank Cites Coinbase as DeFi Lending ExampleThe ECB recognizes Coinbase's Morpho integration as key for DeFi lending. This highlights its impact on financial policies. ECB cites Coinbase's use of Morpho as a key DeFi integration. This recognition emphasizes the importance of onchain…
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BAV is working with experts from the European Central Bank to implement the SHIFT Project.Overview of the working session Attending the working session were Assoc. Prof. Dr. Pham Thi Hoang Anh - Standing Deputy Director of the Banking Academy; Mr. Fejes Tibor - Supervisory expert from the Sustainable Banking and Governance… -
European Central Bank: Core inflation pressures and rate path – Commerzbank | FXStreetCommerzbank’s Dr. Vincent Stamer analyzes Euro area inflation, highlighting that high energy costs are already feeding into goods and services prices. The bank’s Quant Model projects headline inflation near 4% in coming months and core… -
Danske Bank: European Central Bank No Longer Expected to Hike Rate in Octobermarketscreener.com Danske Bank: European Central Bank No Longer Expected to Hike Rate in October Published on 10/20/2026 at 11:01 am EDT Latest news about Danske Bank A/S Chart Danske Bank A/S Income Statement and Estimates Danske Bank… -
5 world market themes for the week aheadAn important week is upcoming with central banks like the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank making policy decisions. Major companies, including Alphabet, Amazon, and Microsoft, are set to report their earnings. Political events are…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions