Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/26 - 11/1)
189.3median
140230
Median 189.3Middle half 177.0 – 200.9
Install
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be pardoned?
The odds
3%chance
How the odds have moved
Yes: 4% on Oct 19, 3% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3% | 1¢ | 5¢ | $20.00 | 25.6K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Israel, Gaza, Netanyahu
Search ›-
Benjamin Netanyahu and the weight of leadershipThree decades at the center of Israel’s history. Opinion. Benjamin Netanyahu and the weight of leadership - Israel risks economic decline and international isolation under Benjamin NetanyahuRarely in democratic history has a negative election campaign been more justified than the one Israel’s opposition should be waging. Just: wow. This lamentable record cries out for a jackhammer negative campaign, but instead the opposition…
- Benjamin Netanyahu faces trial in Turkey over interception of Gaza flotillaAn Istanbul court on Friday opened the trial of 35 Israelis, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Defense Minister Israel Katz, National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, and IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Eyal Zamir, over the…
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Why a far-right cabinet minister in Israel has Netanyahu's earIsrael's most far-right cabinet minister helped dictate hardline policies toward Palestinians in recent years. Benjamin Netanyahu vows to give him a senior position if Netanyahu is reelected next week. Why a far-right cabinet minister in… -
Why Israel’s election is more than a referendum on Netanyahu | CNNIsraelis vote Tuesday in their first election since the October 7, 2023 attack. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces his former military chief, Gadi Eisenkot. CNN’s Oren Liebermann explains why neither likely has a clear path to… -
‘Gaza’s suffering has become campaign fodder’: Palestinians fear the worst from Israel electionHumanitarian catastrophe largely ignored as rivals Gadi Eisenkot and Benjamin Netanyahu vow to end Hamas rule As Israel prepares to go to the polls, Palestinians in Gaza are bracing for an outcome that could shape their future, knowing… -
Hamas says it agrees to new Gaza ceasefire proposal, but Israel makes counterofferMarch 29, 2025 / 9:20 PM EDT / CBS/AP The Hamas militant group said Saturday it has accepted a new Gaza ceasefire proposal from mediators Egypt and Qatar, but Israel said it has made a counter-proposal in "full coordination" with the third… - Is Benjamin Netanyahu the root cause of Israel's abysmal public relations record?Among the most cited stories I ever wrote for The Jerusalem Post was the series of polls taken during US president Barack Obama’s administration asking whether his policies were more pro-Israel or pro-Palestinian. In June 2019, only 6% of…
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Thousands of Israelis rally against Netanyahu gov’t days before electionOpposition figures join Tel Aviv protesters demanding an independent October 7 inquiry. Thousands of Israelis are protesting against the government and calling for an independent inquiry into the security failures that led to the October… -
BBC Audio | From Our Own Correspondent | Israel elections: Netanyahu's big testKate Adie introduces stories from Israel, Albania, the US and Chile. Israel goes to the polls on Tuesday in a pivotal vote on the future direction of the country. Israel's longest-serving prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, is facing a… - Benjamin Netanyahu Orders Blockchain And Cryptocurrency Plan To Bypass Banking SanctionsPublished 24 Oct 2026, 17:21 UTC Netanyahu ordered officials to develop a blockchain-based plan to bypass potential banking sanctions. He said American military aid has ended and Israel must prepare for sanctions. Economic ministries and…
- Benjamin Netanyahu Signals Massive West Bank Operation After Hebron Attack — Days Before ElectionIsraeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced Friday that Israel is preparing a massive military operation in Judea and Samaria, also known as the West Bank, on a scale not seen since the 1967... Benjamin Netanyahu Signals Massive…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions