2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)
8.75%median
-100%100%
Median 8.75%Middle half 6.47% – 10.89%
Install
Who will Elon Musk back a primary against in 2026?
The odds
3%Mike Johnson
- Mike Johnson3%
- Tom Cole2%
- Steve Daines2%
- Kevin Cramer2%
- John Thune2%
How the odds have moved
Mike Johnson: 3% on Oct 20, 3% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Johnson | 3% | 0¢ | 5¢ | $20.00 | 8.5K | |
| Tom Cole | 2% | 2¢ | 3¢ | $33.33 | 1.4K | |
| Steve Daines | 2% | 2¢ | 3¢ | $33.33 | 1.5K | |
| Kevin Cramer | 2% | 1¢ | 3¢ | $34.48 | 1.3K | |
| John Thune | 2% | 0¢ | 3¢ | $34.48 | 3.5K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Elon Musk, Musk, Mike Johnson
Search ›-
Watters: This why the left can't stand Elon MuskJesse Watters and Steve Hilton discuss why the left can't stand Elon Musk. 'Fox & Friends' on Musk pledging one SpaceX share to every child in America. Watters: This why the left can't stand Elon Musk Jesse Watters and Steve Hilton discuss… -
Midterm election spending hits $15B as Elon Musk boosts GOPChief congressional correspondent Chad Pergram reports the latest on Capitol Hill as the midterm elections enter the final stretch. Midterm election spending hits $15B as Elon Musk boosts GOP Chief congressional correspondent Chad Pergram… -
Elon Musk vows to donate SpaceX shares to every child in AmericaCNBC's Robert Frank reports on SpaceXÂ CEO Elon Musk saying that heâll give every child in the U.S. one of his shares in the company next year. Elon Musk vows to donate SpaceX shares to every child in America -
Elon Musk promises to give one SpaceX share to every child in the USElon Musk says he plans to give one of his SpaceX shares to every child in the US, amounting to around $10.5 billion worth of shares. Elon Musk says he plans to give one of his SpaceX shares to every child in the US starting next year With… -
Elon Musk to give away one SpaceX share to every American child next yearElon Musk has announced that he will give one of his SpaceX shares to every child in America next year, in a move he says will be the âfirst of many.â Elon Musk to give away one SpaceX share to every American child next year -
Steve Forbes praises Elon Musk's stock giveaway, criticizes government spending as US deficit nears $2TDeficit concerns and market moves take center stage as Steve Forbes joins Stuart Varney to analyze Elon Musk's pledge to give SpaceX shares to American children. Forbes also discusses rising U.S. Treasury yields and the growing national… -
Elon Musk pledges to give every child in America a SpaceX share next yearA 'Barron's Roundtable' panel discusses Tesla CEO Elon Musk's plans to showcase the company's flying car, the Tesla Roadster. Elon Musk has pledged to give every child in America one share of SpaceX next year, signaling that the planned… -
Elon Musk says he’ll give every American child a SpaceX share.What’s not to trust about this X post, given the vague deadline of “next year,” and track record of broken promises? Actually doing this would require Musk to give away more than $10 billion worth of shares, but I guess that’s more… -
Elon Musk says he'll give a SpaceX share to every child in America next yearSpaceX boss Elon Musk said Monday that he'll give one of his shares in the company to every child in the U.S. next year. That would amount to the CEO giving away about $10.5 billion worth of shares. Anthropic said it plans to commit 5% of… -
Texas Democratic candidate for governor sues to review emails between Elon Musk and Greg AbbottTexas state Rep. Gina Hinojosa, the Democratic nominee for governor, announced a lawsuit Monday against Gov. Greg Abbott over emails between his office and Republican ally Elon Musk. Hinojosa — who is challenging Abbott in a tight contest… -
Elon Musk says he plans to give a SpaceX share to every child in the U.S.October 19, 2026 / 7:51 AM EDT / CBS News Elon Musk said in a social media post Monday that he plans to give one of his SpaceX shares to each child in the U.S., writing that the gift "will be the first of many." Musk didn't specify how the… -
Elon Musk and Anthropic make promises to give the public a piece of the AI pieElon Musk and officials at AI giant Anthropic are pledging to give coveted shares in their companies to the general public as concerns about AI’s economic and societal impact continue to pile up. One SpaceX share is currently valued at…
Related markets
All congress ›Will 3 mg THC beverages be federally legal to sell? (Through Nov 2027)
94%On Nov 16, 2026
- On Nov 16, 202694%▲ 7
- On Nov 22, 202771%▲ 1
- On Mar 15, 202769%▲ 2
1 more
- On Dec 14, 202660%▼ 2
How many House seats will Democrats win in the Midterms?
235.9median
206254
Median 235.9Middle half 228.1 – 244.3
Will the SAVE Act become law? (Before Jan 4, 2027)
3%chance
How many nominations will Trump send to the Senate this week? (10/18-10/24)
5%At least 1
-860
Will the cap on gambling loss deduction be repealed? (Before Jan 1, 2029)
Aug 30, 2027even chance by
- Before Jan 1, 202718%▼ 2
- Before Apr 1, 202724%▲ 4
- Before Sep 1, 202751%▲ 24
1 more
- Before Jan 1, 202851%▲ 2
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.