Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/26 - 11/1)
189.5median
140230
Median 189.5Middle half 176.6 – 200.8
Install
Will Elon Musk be charged with a crime in Spain or France? (Before Jan 1, 2027)
The odds
25%chance▲ 1
How the odds have moved
Yes: 23% on Oct 20, 25% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 25% | ▲ 1 | 21¢ | 28¢ | $3.57 | 10.0K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Elon Musk, Musk, Spain
Search ›-
Elon Musk REVEALS why Starlink was disrupted in UkraineSpaceX CEO Elon Musk explained in an X post why Starlink access was disrupted in Ukraine, saying that the country's military violated the terms of service. Elon Musk REVEALS why Starlink was disrupted in Ukraine -
Elon Musk details why Ukraine’s Starlink service was disruptedFox News chief foreign correspondent Trey Yingst reports on the latest Russia attacks on Ukraine and breaks down concerns about Starlink access. The ‘Fox News Sunday’ panel provides analysis. Elon Musk details why Ukraine’s Starlink… -
Elon Musk Says Ukraine Violated Starlink TermsOct 24, 2026 at 05:30 PM EDT Amid the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, Elon Musk said Kyiv violated the terms of SpaceX’s commercial Starlink service by using it for offensive drone strikes, as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said… -
Elon Musk’s Grok Finally Delivers First Installment of ‘Historically Accurate’ ‘The Odyssey’Three months after Elon Musk promised to make a “historically accurate” version of The Odyssey using AI, Grok shared the first installment of its response to Christopher Nolan’s cinematic epic. When Nolan’s take on Homer’s epic poem… -
Elon Musk says SpaceX closed Ukraine Starlink ‘loophole’ after limits hit drone operationsElon Musk has said his company imposed limits on the use of its Starlink satellite system in Ukraine last week, after curbs led to disruption to Ukrainian military operations. Ukraine said Saturday that both Starlink, run by Musk’s SpaceX… -
US military gives Elon Musk’s SpaceX access to sensitive tracking dataThis gives the company an advantage in tracking objects in orbit, raising national security concerns and fears of greater control over the space industry The US military has given Elon Musk’s SpaceX access to restricted space tracking… -
Ukraine disputes Elon Musk’s claim that its military violated Starlink terms during drone operationsSerhii Beskrestnov, a defense technology advisor to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, wrote an online post on Sunday contesting Musk's reason for temporarily throttling Ukraine's access to high-speed service from SpaceX's Starlink… -
Trump praises Elon Musk as a 'genius' while defending him against potential Democratic probesPresident Donald Trump told FOX Business that Americans have an "obligation to protect our geniuses," defending Elon Musk as a "brilliant guy" when asked whether Democrats could target the billionaire if they win control of Congress… -
Democrat James Talarico targets Elon Musk at rally: ‘Texas is not for sale’The Senate candidate denounced opponent Ken Paxton, calling out corruption allegations and support from Musk James Talarico, the Democratic candidate for the US Senate in Texas, has taken aim at Elon Musk, warning that the tech mogul is… -
Ukraine's Starlink restored as Elon Musk claims Kyiv violated terms of service 'to kill people'Fox News chief national security correspondent Jennifer Griffin reports on the fallout over Starlink satellite system restrictions in Ukraine on ‘Special Report.’ He explained that Starshield is a different system controlled by the U.S… -
How Elon Musk's Starlink and Starshield are shaping the war in UkraineElon Musk's Starlink and Starshield satellite networks play different roles in Ukraine's fight against Russia. Here's how the two systems work, how they're used on the battlefield and why Ukraine's reliance on them could be a… -
Elon Musk’s dangerous grip on outer spaceAs SpaceX throttles Ukraine’s Starshield, experts warn that Elon Musk’s de facto monopoly over launch and satellite tech poses a major threat to global security. The finger-pointing is of little interest to Ukrainians, who are focused on…
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Traffic through the Panama Canal? (10/26 - 11/1)
194.9median
160230
Median 194.9Middle half 188.2 – 202.6
Traffic through the Suez Canal? (10/19 - 10/25)
296.5median
250340
Median 296.5Middle half 289.1 – 306.3
Traffic through the Panama Canal? (10/19 - 10/25)
197.1median
160230
Median 197.1Middle half 189.4 – 202.4
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions