Moonshot AI share of spend on Oct 20, 2026 (Vercel)
99%Above 4.2%
3%6.6%
Install
Moonshot AI share of spend on Oct 22, 2026 (Vercel)
The odds
28%Above 13.9%
11.2%19.3%
How the odds have moved
Above 16.6%: 13% on Oct 19, 14% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 13.9% | 28% | ▲ 17 | 24¢ | 33¢ | $3.03 | |
| Above 16.6% | 14% | ▲ 7 | 9¢ | 18¢ | $5.56 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Moonshot AI, Vercel
Search ›-
US orders federal agencies to remove China’s DeepSeek AI from their systemsBuy One Founder Summit Ticket, Get a Second for Free. Register now. The DHS raised concerns about DeepSeek’s handling of user data, warning that sensitive information from US government users could potentially be accessible to Chinese… -
China's Teenage AI Prodigy Leaves Moonshot AI, Denies Moving to U.S. AnthropicAccording to Ming Pao and Lianhe Zaobao on October 18 , Chen Guangyu , who participated in the research and development of Kimi K3, recently announced via social media that he has "left Moonshot." "The past year has been the best of my… -
China Steps Up AI Investment With $9 Billion Fund Backing Model DevelopersCaixin Global China Steps Up AI Investment With $9 Billion Fund Backing Model Developers China’s 60 billion yuan ($9 billion) state-backed AI investment fund has begun deploying capital into top domestic large model developers as the… -
DeepSeek Tops Open-Source Models in Web Development CodingSeoul Economic Daily BEIJING â A new artificial intelligence model released by China's DeepSeek has ranked first among open-source models worldwide in web development coding performance DeepSeek's new model, V4.1-Flash-1017, released on… -
Teen Prodigy Behind Kimi Breakthrough Leaves Moonshot AI for U.S.Chen Guangyu Joined Moonshot AI at 16 Helped Develop Core Technology on Kimi Research Team Move Draws Attention Amid U.S.-China AI Rivalry A 17-year-old prodigy who helped develop the core model at Chinese artificial intelligence startup… -
U.S. blocks DeepSeek from civilian federal systems and contractsThe Department of Homeland Security posted a notice instructing civilian federal agencies to take DeepSeek products off their networks. A companion directive dated July 24, signed by Markwayne Mullin, also shuts the company out of federal… -
US-China Rivalry Intensifies in Open-Weight AI ModelsChinese artificial intelligence (AI) startup DeepSeek has released DeepSeek-V4.1-Flash-1017, an updated version of its V4.1 Flash model with improved processing speed, approximately five weeks after the original launch. In DeepSeek’s… -
TypeScript 7 Native Port, Perplexity Decision Models, and the Vercel Platform ExpansionThis week's AI tooling news split cleanly between two themes: speed and consolidation. TypeScript's native port landed with build time numbers that sound made-up until you run them yourself, while Vercel quietly became a serious backend… -
AI Talent War Reshapes Big Tech Pay Scales: New Grads Command Up to 5 Million Yuan, Veteran Staff Hit by Pay InversionNote: Pay data comes from annual-package figures disclosed by recruiting-channel sources; differences exist across teams and roles. But compared with a decade ago, veteran employees' attitudes have clearly changed. "The new guy next to me… -
Python GA on Vercel, New Reasoning Models, and Layout-Aware Diffusion: Issue #110This week's releases cluster around a clear theme: reducing the infrastructure surface area developers have to manage. Vercel made a serious push to own the full-stack Python deployment story, two new reasoning models landed with… - Anthropic Accuses Alibaba's Qwen of Largest Claude DistillationJoin free with your email We send you a confirmation link to click. Want only the AI that hits your stack? Build an agent that tracks your companies and topics, and skips everything else. The reported scale exceeds previous distillation…
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DHS to ban DeepSeek from federal civilian agenciesGet our latest cybersecurity news first on Google. The Department of Homeland Security is banning the use of Chinese AI model DeepSeek and its affiliates by civilian federal agencies. The notice, set to publish Tuesday in the Federal…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.