SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by...?
31%December 31
- October 313%▼ 13
- December 3131%▼ 2
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Will SCOTUS permit Missouri's HB 1 House map? (Before Nov 3, 2026)
The odds
4%chance
How the odds have moved
Yes: 2% on Oct 19, 4% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 4% | 7¢ | $14.29 | 27.7K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Supreme Court, Missouri's HB House, SCOTUS
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How the conservative Supreme Court has rewritten the rules for the midtermsVoters will pick the winners of next month’s midterm elections, but it is the conservative Supreme Court that has set the rules. Long before early voting got underway to decide control of Congress, the court exerted an unusually profound… -
Will the Supreme Court find room at the grotto?By Brendan Philbin, The Daily Signal On Oct. 1, 2026, the Supreme Court of the United States agreed to hear Missionaries of Saint John the Baptist, Inc. v. Frederic and answer an important question: Does a regulation prohibiting a church… -
Second Amendment fight moves beyond guns with Supreme Court poised for big rulingNational Association for Gun Rights President Dudley Brown says the AR-15 ban before the Supreme Court could shape challenges to restrictions on automatic knives, body armor, magazines and other defensive equipment. Two federal court… -
'The Supreme Court's Harm is Everywhere, Most People Just Don't See It': Activist Stasha M. Rhodes Criticizes SCOTUS' Decisions on Americans’ LivesStasha M. Rhodes, executive director of United for Democracy, is urging Americans to pay closer attention to the U.S. Supreme Court, arguing that its decisions shape everyday life in ways many people fail to connect to the justices… -
Switchblade, body armor rulings reveal stakes in Supreme Court AR-15 showdownNational Association for Gun Rights President Dudley Brown says the AR-15 ban before the Supreme Court could shape challenges to restrictions on automatic knives, body armor, magazines and other defensive equipment. Switchblade, body armor… -
Trump Targets Birth Tourism After Supreme Court Upholds Birthright CitizenshipThe Trump administration has revoked at least 4,000 visas tied to birth tourism, the practice of traveling to the United States to give birth so the child receives U.S. citizenship, the White House announced on October 20. The State… -
Supreme Court Lets Trump’s Firing of NLRB Member StandThe Supreme Court has declined to take up the case of Gwynne Wilcox, a Democrat-appointed member of the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) who was fired last year by President Donald Trump. Wilcox was appointed to the NLRB by President… -
INQUIRY SHAKEUP: Former Supreme Court President Steps Down As Head Of Israel’s Submarine InvestigationFormer Israeli Supreme Court President Asher Grunis has resigned as chairman of the state commission investigating Israel’s controversial submarine procurement program, citing medical reasons, officials announced Sunday. Supreme Court… -
Except for Thomas and Alito, Supreme Court rules taxpayers must pay for trans prisoners’ surgeriesby WorldTribune Staff, October 25, 2026 — Real World News The U.S. Supreme Court on Wednesday temporarily blocked the Trump Administration from enforcing a policy that would cut off taxpayer-funded gender-transition care and surgeries for… -
Robert Crawford to face Brisbane Supreme Court charged with murder of wife FrancesThe West Australian is a leading news source in Perth and WA. Breaking local and world news from sport and business to lifestyle and current affairs. A Queensland pilot will face a Supreme Court jury over his wifeâs alleged murder Former… -
How the Supreme Court Is Shaping the Midterm Elections“From gerrymandered voting maps to the latest surge in political spending, the Supreme Court’s fingerprints are all over the 2026 midterms,” the Wall Street Journal reports. “A string of decisions from the court’s conservative majority has…
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All supreme court & courts ›Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by...?
38%December 31
- June 30, 202738%▲ 7
- December 3138%▼ 2
Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?
37%Ilhan Omar
- Ilhan Omar37%▼ 5
- John Brennan23%▲ 2
- Cassidy Hutchinson23%▼ 2
40 more
- Gustavo Petro16%▲ 5
- Fani Willis13%▼ 1
- Anthony Fauci12%▼ 2
- Dan J. Sullivan12%▼ 1
- Jack Smith11%
- Kimberly Guilfoyle11%▼ 2
- Lisa Cook10%
- James Clapper10%
- Keith Ellison10%
- Peter Strzok9%
- Hunter Biden9%
- Leon Black9%▲ 3
- Miles Taylor9%
- Chris Krebs8%
- Lisa Monaco8%▲ 1
- George Soros8%▼ 1
- Gavin Newsom8%▼ 2
- Tucker Carlson7%▼ 1
- Tim Walz7%
- Alvin Bragg7%
- E. Jean Carroll7%▼ 3
- Jennifer Siebel Newsom7%▼ 2
- Pam Bondi6%▲ 1
- Elissa Slotkin6%▲ 1
- Jacob Frey6%
- Letitia James6%
- Adam Schiff6%▲ 1
- Mark Milley6%
- Mark Kelly6%
- Liz Cheney6%
- Joe Kent6%
- Chris Christie5%
- Andrew Weissmann5%▼ 5
- Christopher Wray5%
- Reid Hoffman5%
- Barack Obama4%
- Jerome Powell3%
- Hillary Clinton3%
- Bill Clinton3%
- Joe Biden3%
Will SCOTUS rule for DHS on third-country deportations? (Before Aug 1, 2028)
79%chance▲ 21
Who will be arrested in 2026?
28%Ilhan Omar
- Ilhan Omar28%▼ 7
- John Brennan24%▲ 2
- Mahmoud Khalil17%
22 more
- Anthony Fauci9%
- James Clapper8%
- Letitia James6%▼ 1
- Susan Rice6%
- Lisa Cook6%
- Tom Homan5%
- Lee Jun-seok5%
- Benjamin Netanyahu5%
- Adam Schiff5%▲ 1
- Candace Owens5%
- Hillary Clinton4%▲ 1
- Pam Bondi4%
- José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero4%▼ 1
- Lee Jae Myung3%▼ 2
- Gavin Newsom3%▼ 1
- John Kerry3%
- Bill Clinton3%▼ 1
- Kash Patel3%
- Joe Biden3%
- Brandon Johnson2%
- Barack Obama2%
- Loretta Lynch2%
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement? (Before Jan 1, 2028)
Jun 15, 2027even chance by
- Before Jan 1, 202722%▼ 1
- Before Apr 1, 202727%▼ 1
- Before Jul 1, 202755%▲ 10
2 more
- Before Oct 1, 202755%▼ 8
- Before Jan 1, 202857%▲ 8
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions