FTC antitrust case against Meta revived on appeal? (Before 2029)

Kalshi Politics › Supreme Court & courts Closes Dec 31, 2028 · $341 traded · $305 at stake · prices read 15 min ago

The odds

55%chance

How the odds have moved

Yes: 55% on Oct 19, 55% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Yes	55%		50¢	60¢	$1.67	621

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Meta

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onUnited States Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit, PACER

Trading closesDec 31, 2028 11:59 PM ET

Traded$341 (621 contracts)

This week$341

At stake$305

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If the United States Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit reverses or vacates, in whole or in part, the district court's November 18, 2025 judgment for Meta, such that the FTC's monopolization claims may proceed in Federal Trade Commission v. Meta Platforms, Inc., No. 26-5028, on appeal from No. 20-cv-3590 (D.D.C.) before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Prices it is about

Meta Platforms, Inc.META · about the company688.97−2.34%

From 4Conservative Finance. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.