Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/26 - 11/1)
189.3median
140230
Median 189.3Middle half 176.6 – 200.9
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Giorgia Meloni announces departure as Prime Minister of Italy? (Before Jan 2028)
The odds
Dec 28, 2027even chance by
- Before Jul 1, 202731%
- Before Jan 1, 202851%
How the odds have moved
Before Jul 1, 2027: 32% on Oct 19, 31% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jul 1, 2027 | 31% | 27¢ | 35¢ | $2.86 | 35.00 | |
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 51% | 46¢ | 55¢ | $1.82 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Prime Minister of Italy, Giorgia Meloni
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Giorgia Meloni is Italy’s great political survivor. Could one man be about to bring her down?With elections looming in 2027, Roberto Vannacci’s new far-right movement could fatally outflank the prime minister Giorgia Meloni’s government became the longest serving in Italy’s republican history last month. This unusual political… -
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni Arrives in Kuwait on Official VisitKUWAIT CITY, Oct 23: Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni arrived in Kuwait on Friday on an official visit, accompanied by a delegation. Meloni was received at the airport by His Highness the Prime Minister Sheikh Ahmad Abdullah Al-Ahmad… -
"Europe has become a bureaucratic giant" - Giorgia Meloni attacks the EUItalian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has strongly criticized the way the European Union functions today, describing it as a structure overloaded with bureaucracy that, according to her, is hindering Europe's competitiveness and strategic… -
Italy: Giorgia Meloni approves tougher anti-riot laws after Milan violence 🇮🇹France 24 To display this content from YouTube, you must enable advertisement tracking and audience measurement. One of your browser extensions seems to be blocking the video player from loading. To watch this content, you may need to… -
Italy Unveils Tough Security Law | Up To 5 Years In Jail For Violent Protesters | Giorgia MeloniItaly’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has unveiled tough new security measures following violent unrest and looting in Milan and other Italian cities. The new decree introduces a criminal offence for violent participation in… -
Giorgia Meloni Orders 500 Troops To Milan, Tightens Anti-Riot Laws With €20,000 FinesPublished 20 Oct 2026, 23:51 UTC Earlier on this story19 Oct: Matteo Salvini Deploys 500 Soldiers To Milan After Giorgia Meloni Chairs Security Meeting 500 troops deployed to Milan to support police amid clashes. Government unveils tougher… -
Parents liable for children's participation, ₹21 lakh fine for violence: After Milan protests, Giorgia Meloni reads the riot actItaly on Tuesday approved a tough new security package that makes parents financially liable for vandalism and looting committed by their underage children, following violent protests in Milan and other northern cities. Prime Minister… -
Giorgia Meloni's tough move after Milan riots: 500 troops to be deployed as luxury stores fear more lootingشبكة تواصل الإخبارية Protesters run along a street strewn with debris during a protest over the state of public services and the rising cost of living in Milan, Italy, October 18, 2026. Milan’s luxury shopping streets are used to crowds… -
Giorgia Meloni Chairs Security Meeting After Youth Riots in MilanPublished 19 Oct 2026, 18:15 UTC Milan riots over the cost of living caused damages estimated over €500 million. Giorgia Meloni chaired a security meeting with top officials after two days of riots. 21 outlets told this the same way… -
Italy and Spain scrap border checks brought in after Ceuta crisis10/22/2026 7:00 AM EDT Italy and Spain will end their mutual border checks at airports and ports that were introduced in August after the migrant crisis in Ceuta. Italy’s Giorgia Meloni and Spain’s Pedro Sánchez reached an agreement… -
Milan braces for more unrest as debate intensifies over Italy’s ‘lost generation’Protests and fringe violence expose sharp divide between marginalised and immigrant youth and those with greater prospects Martina Miccichè was filming riot police kicking and beating a teenager with batons as they dragged him along Piazza… -
Wild moment Italian cops blast young protester with water cannon after she joined far-left riotersA young protester was filmed being knocked off her feet after riot cops in Italy blasted her with a water cannon as violence in neighboring France seeped across the border. Wild footage shows the female demonstrator, dressed in red and…
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197.4median
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Feb 16, 2028even chance by
- Before Nov 1, 20261%▼ 1
- Before Dec 1, 20265%
- Before Jan 1, 20277%
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- Before Feb 1, 20279%▼ 1
- Before Mar 1, 202714%▼ 1
- Before Apr 1, 202717%▼ 1
- Before May 1, 202719%▼ 1
- Before Jun 1, 202725%
- Before Jul 1, 202731%
- Before Aug 1, 202733%
- Before Sep 1, 202734%▼ 1
- Before Oct 1, 202737%
- Before Nov 1, 202741%
- Before Dec 1, 202741%
- Before Jan 1, 202848%▼ 1
- Before Jul 1, 202857%▲ 2
- Before Jan 1, 202960%
Will France declare a state of emergency? (Before Jan 1, 2027)
18%Before Jan 1, 2027
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Traffic through the Panama Canal? (10/26 - 11/1)
192.8median
160230
Median 192.8Middle half 185.7 – 202.7
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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions