Midterms: Democratic mega tsunami? (2026)

Kalshi Elections › Senate Closes Feb 1, 2027 · $482 today · $38.5K traded · $14.2K at stake · prices read 2 min ago

The odds

24%chance▼ 1

How the odds have moved

Yes: 21% on Oct 20, 24% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Yes	24%	▼ 1	23¢	24¢	$4.17	163.8K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Midterms

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Midterm Elections 2026STAT · 5 days agoWe are on the ground on Capitol Hill and across Washington every day, keeping you informed. STAT’s policy reporters explain what’s at stake for biotech, pharma, researchers, and health care leaders, with deeply sourced coverage of…
Florida’s odd midterm currentsPOLITICO · 5 days agoKimberly Leonard's must-read briefing on what's hot, crazy or shady about politics in the Sunshine State 10/20/2026 07:00 AM EDT Florida trial attorney and political megadonor John Morgan speaks to the Capital Tiger Bay Club in…
President Trump continues midterm campaign pushCBS News · 5 days agoCBS News President Trump continues midterm campaign push Henry Ford Genesys nurses approve contract Detroit Pistons season opener I-696 construction causing rat problems for Ferndale residents Inkster City Council tables data center…
What the midterm candidates are up toThe Washington Post · 6 days agoBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. Recent developments in…
FBI warning schemers are exploiting the midterm electionsCBS News · 5 days agoWBZ This Morning 5am CBS News Detroit 5am CBS News Miami 5am CBS News New York This Morning CBS News Philadelphia 5am KDKA-TV Morning News 5am
2026 Midterm Elections: Trump Campaigns in North CarolinaFox News · 5 days agoPresident Donald Trump is campaigning for Republican Senate candidate Michael Whatley as early voting expands and Democrats seek to flip North Carolina’s closely watched Senate race. President Donald Trump is scheduled to rally in…
Winning Campaign Advertising Strategies for the 2026 MidtermsPOLITICO · 6 days agoProjected political ad spending in the 2026 midterms could make next year the most expensive midterm on record. Total spending is expected to reach $10.8 billion, with House and Senate races projected to total $5 billion — nearly half of…
Trump veers off message in closing midterm ralliesNBC News · 5 days agoNBC News Trump veers off message in closing midterm rallies
Trump en route to Kansas for midterm campaignFox News · 5 days agoFox News Trump en route to Kansas for midterm campaign President Donald Trump boards Air Force One on the way to Kansas to continue his midterm campaign swing.
2026 Midterm Elections: Trump Campaigns in KansasFox News · 6 days agoPresident Donald Trump is taking his midterm campaign to Kansas as Democrats look to regain ground with Latino and rural voters in competitive House and Senate races. President Donald Trump is scheduled to rally for Republican Sen. Roger…
Georgia voters share where they stand as the midterms approachNPR · 5 days agoNPR Georgia voters share where they stand as the midterms approach NPR's Steve Inskeep talks to voters in the northwest suburbs of Atlanta, Georgia.
Trump Administration Expands Voter Fraud Crackdown As Midterms ApproachNewsweek · 5 days agoOct 20, 2026 at 05:09 AM EDT The Trump administration is stepping up its voter fraud crackdown less than three weeks before the November midterms, with a series of federal charges and a lawsuit against California over ballots linked to…

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1 more

R-House, D-Senate1%

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onUnited States House of Representatives, United States Senate

Trading closesFeb 1, 2027 10:00 AM ET

Traded$38.5K (163,776 contracts)

Today$482

This week$26.4K

At stake$14.2K

In the news354 headlines today, 3,824 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If ALL of the following occur: Democrats hold 240 or more seats in the House after the 2026 midterms AND Democrats hold 54 or more seats in the Senate after the 2026 midterms, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.