Madrid regional election: 2nd place (May 23, 2027)

Kalshi Elections › Around the world Closes May 22, 2028 · prices read 7 h ago

The odds

69%PSOE

PSOE69%▲ 1
Más Madrid27%▲ 1
Vox5%▲ 1

How the odds have moved

PSOE: 69% on Oct 19, 69% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays
PSOE	69%	▲ 1	65¢	73¢	$1.37
Más Madrid	27%	▲ 1	22¢	31¢	$3.23
Vox	5%	▲ 1	1¢	8¢	$12.50

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Madrid, Más Madrid

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Madrid festival reroutes thousands of sheep to avoid housing protest campNew York Post · 12 h agoThousands of sheep and goats thronged the streets of the Spanish capital on Sunday, drawing large crowds of tourists and locals alike to watch an annual festival recreating the pastoral practice of moving livestock to new grazing grounds…
Thousands of Brazilians Vote in Madrid in Presidential Runoff - teleSUR EnglishteleSURenglish · 14 h agoOctober 25, 2026 Hour: 12:08 pm On Sunday, the second round of Brazil’s presidential election drew thousands of Braziliasn to polling stations in Madrid, where they voted for their next president, choosing between far-right senator Flavio…
250,000 rally in Madrid demanding state pension guarantees@arabnews · 39 h agoMADRID: Authorities said 250,00 people marched through central Madrid on Saturday demanding protection for the Spanish state pension scheme, one of the hot topics in a parliamentary election next month. The rally comes amid a political row…
IU rejects a tactical withdrawal from TeruelRUSSPAIN.com · 3 days agoIU says the Frente Amplio should contest every constituency, including Teruel. It warns that standing aside could give Podemos room to attract voters to the PSOE’s left. Lists can be filed until Monday 26. Podemos is prepared to stand…
Madrid mourns evicted retiree, 'icon' of Spain housing protestsZeta.com.pa · 11 h agoTens of thousands of mourners marched through Madrid on Thursday in tribute to a Spanish pensioner whose eviction sparked national housing protests that culminated in the calling of early elections. The death of 87-year-old Maricarmen…
Tens of Thousands Protest Pension System Security in Madrid@Rato_pati · 28 h agoKathmandu. On Saturday, about 250,000 people demonstrated in the central part of the Spanish city of Madrid, demanding security for Spain's state-provided pension system. This is a major issue in the parliamentary elections to be held in…
Thousands of protesters in Madrid over pensions, protests planned in Portugal over housingvijesti.me · 42 h agoThousands of pensioners and other citizens took to the streets of Spain's capital, Madrid, today to demand that public pensions not be touched. A large number of people walked peacefully through the center of Madrid, waving colorful flags…
Coespe Leads Madrid Protest Demanding Dignified Public Pensions, Higher Wages, HousingNewsCord · 37 h agoPublished 24 Oct 2026, 17:23 UTC About 25,000 people gathered in Madrid, led by Coespe, demanding dignified pensions, wages, housing. Event occurred in the pre-election period ahead of Spain's upcoming elections. Supporters want an end to…
‘We’ll keep growing’: Madrid housing protest camp marks one month@arabnews · 3 days agoMADRID: One month after starting as a small camp, a sprawling warren of tents and tarpaulin in Madrid has spearheaded protests over Spain’s housing crisis — a key issue in November elections. The camp in the capital’s emblematic Puerta del…
Former Spanish PM: Defending Spain’s Border Is Madrid’s Duty, Not Morocco’sMorocco World News · 2 days agoHome » Politics » Former Spanish PM: Defending Spain’s Border Is Madrid’s Duty, Not Morocco’s Former Spanish Prime Minister Felipe González. (Designed by MWN team) Marrakech – Former Spanish Prime Minister Felipe González has drawn a clear…
‘We’ll Keep Growing’: Madrid Housing Protest Camp Enters Second Monthdeccanchronicle.com · 3 days agoThe camp in the capital's emblematic Puerta del Sol square now hosts hundreds of people and has morphed into a mini-city equipped with a canteen, a clinic and a space for meetings. Madrid: One month after starting as a small camp, a…
Milei’s team requested a different sponsor backdrop in MadridRUSSPAIN.com · 3 days agoThe logos of Nueva Economía Fórum’s regular sponsors were visible during Javier Milei’s Madrid address, contrary to viral posts. Organisers say his cabinet requested a different backdrop arrangement; the brands did not ask to be removed…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onJunta Electoral Provincial de Madrid

Trading closesMay 22, 2028 10:00 AM ET

Traded$0 (0 contracts)

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party finishes in 2nd place in the next Madrid regional election according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

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