Texas Senate winner? (2026)
64%James Talarico
- James Talarico64%▼ 1
- Ken Paxton36%▼ 1
Install
How many Democratic Senators will lose reelection in 2026?
The odds
0.04median
-0.505.50
Median 0.04Middle half -0.23 – 0.31
How the odds have moved
Median: 0.06 on Oct 20, 0.04 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly 0 | 93% | 94¢ | 95¢ | $1.05 | 50.7K | |
| Exactly 1 | 4% | 2¢ | 7¢ | $14.49 | 29.7K | |
| Exactly 2 | 1% | 0¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | 15.2K | |
| Exactly 3 | <1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | 13.5K | ||
| Exactly 4 | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | $100.00 | 10.5K | |
| 5 or more | 1% | 0¢ | 2¢ | $58.82 | 12.5K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Democratic Senators
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Democratic senator accused of 'political malpractice' after job ad ignites firestorm over DEI languageFox News contributor Mary Katharine Ham discusses Sen. Ed Markey's, D-Mass., internship posting encouraging 'underrepresented candidates' to apply and argues its DEI-focused language comes close to violating hiring laws on 'The Will Cain… -
Democratic Senators Share ‘Trump Tax’ on Six Items: What the Data ShowsOct 21, 2026 at 06:30 AM EDT Senators Andy Kim and Elizabeth Warren are drawing attention to household costs ahead of the midterm elections, sharing a graphic that describes the increases as a “Trump Tax.” Kim shared Warren’s visual on X… -
Democratic Senator on 'Fierce' Call with Ukrainian President ZelenskyDemocratic Sen. Richard Blumenthal describes what Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told him about the Trump administration’s alleged actions and how it is affecting war-torn Ukraine ... Democratic Senator on ‘Fierce’ Call with… - US Democratic senator probes Ukraine's loss of Starshield serviceWASHINGTON, Oct 22 (Reuters) - Democratic US Senator Richard Blumenthal on Thursday said he had opened an inquiry into Ukraine's loss of critical access to the Pentagon's Starshield satellite communications service and the resulting…
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Democratic senator torches GOP failure to rein in Trump and MuskDem senator torches GOP FAILURE to rein in Trump and Musk MS NOW Democratic senator torches GOP failure to rein in Trump and Musk Youth voting leader rips Trump’s failed promises: Voters ‘were used’ Trump’s coziness with Putin criticized… - Protests in Albania/Democratic Senator: The people have the right to demand accountabilityStudent activists appear poised to defeat Aleksandar Vučić at the ballot box this Sunday. The EU should never have underestimated Serbian democracy. Democratic US Senator Elissa Slotkin has reacted to the protests in Albania, stressing…
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Democratic senator sparks controversy over comments on investigating the Trump administrationDemocratic Sen. Elissa Slotkin is drawing criticism from a Republican lawmaker and other conservatives after suggesting congressional investigations could deter recent graduates from joining the Trump administration. “I wanna look at these… -
Trump Tests Midterm Pull in Georgia With Second Rally in Eight DaysOct 24, 2026 at 04:01 PM EDT President Donald Trump returns to Georgia on Saturday for his second rally in the battleground state in eight days, as Republicans look to his political influence for a boost in two closely watched statewide… -
DHS responds to Sen. Padilla visit to Sacramento ICE facilityOctober 23, 2026 / 4:52 PM PDT / CBS Sacramento The U.S. Department of Homeland Security responded Friday to Democratic Senator Alex Padilla after Padilla made an unannounced visit to the Sacramento Immigration and Customs Enforcement… -
Virginia Democratic Senator Proposes Statewide 3-Year Data Center MoratoriumThe bill would block local approvals and state permits for new data centers and related energy infrastructure from July 2027. WASHINGTON, Oct. 19, 2026 - A Virginia senator has proposed a three-year statewide moratorium on new data center… -
Manchin, Ocasio-Cortez are closers in Maine Senate raceNORWAY, Maine – Susan Collins and Joe Manchin arrived right on time – Maine’s Republican senator and West Virginia’s last Democratic senator, in matching red fleece, making a cheerful Wednesday stop a New Balance factory. Collins… -
Sikorski, Democratic Senator Coons criticize Putin's proposal to meet Trump, Xi on Ukraine war"The first Yalta recognized Soviet domination over the areas of Eastern Europe that the Red Army controlled. Now Putin wants Ukrainian territories that he can't manage to conquer as a gift," Sikorski wrote on social media platform X on…
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63%James Talarico (D)
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions