Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
Oct 25, 9 PM ETRafael López Aliaga: 85% → 80%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
Oct 21, 7 PM ETRafael López Aliaga: 74% → 91%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
Outcome
Chance
Day
Bid
Ask
Pays
Contracts
Rafael López Aliaga
75%
▼ 10
64¢
81¢
$1.23
29.6K
Francis Allison
3%
▼ 1
5¢
$20.00
11.3K
Samuel Daza
2%
4¢
$25.00
2.3K
Susel Paredes
2%
3¢
$33.33
1.2K
Carlos Bruce
1%
2¢
$50.00
8.7K
Ricardo Belmont
1%
1¢
$100.00
788
Luis Rubio
1%
1¢
$100.00
2.7K
Yehude Simon
1%
1¢
$100.00
2.0K
Alberto Tejada
1%
1¢
$100.00
1.1K
Daniel Urresti
1%
1¢
$100.00
2.8K
Oswaldo Vargas
1%
1¢
$100.00
3.0K
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Lima Mayor, Rafael López Aliaga, Francis Allison
Peru Lima Mayor Count Reaches 95.4%The Rio Times · 7 days agoThe Lima mayor count reached 95.4% of tally sheets on Saturday 17 October 2026, with the Renovación Popular list still ahead. Its lead over Avanza País is about one percentage point, and 1,202 disputed sheets remain unresolved. Lima is…
López Aliaga Claims 50,000 Lead in Lima VoteThe Rio Times · 6 days agoRafael López Aliaga, the conservative former mayor of Lima, says his own recount of the vote-tally sheets gives him a lead of about 50,000 votes in the race to run Peru’s capital again, Panamericana television reported on Monday 19 October…
Lima Mayor Sharetta Smith talks city government with Boys and Girls Club@LimaYNN · 13 days agohometownstations.com Lima Mayor Sharetta Smith talks city government with Boys and Girls Club Allen County Democrats rally behind candidates at annual fall dinner Allen County GOP names keynote speaker, special guests for their BBQ rally…
Ohio Division of Wildlife reminds hunters of rules ahead of hunting seasons@LimaYNN · 13 days agoSarah Schott with the Ohio Division of Wildlife is in with a reminder of rules for waterfowl and deer hunting season! Ohio Division of Wildlife reminds hunters of rules ahead of hunting seasons Putnam County commissioner tells us what…
Allen County Democrats rally behind candidates at annual fall dinner@LimaYNN · 13 days agohometownstations.com Allen County Democrats rally behind candidates at annual fall dinner Lima Mayor Sharetta Smith talks city government with Boys and Girls Club Allen County GOP names keynote speaker, special guests for their BBQ rally…
Allen County GOP names keynote speaker, special guests for their BBQ rally@LimaYNN · 13 days agohometownstations.com Allen County GOP names keynote speaker, special guests for their BBQ rally Allen County Democrats rally behind candidates at annual fall dinner Lima Mayor Sharetta Smith talks city government with Boys and Girls Club…
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions
