Which leaders will leave office in 2026?

Kalshi Elections › Around the world Closes Jan 1, 2027 · $2.6K today · $506K traded · $146K at stake · prices read 4 min ago

The odds

46%Christopher Luxon

Christopher Luxon46%
Benjamin Netanyahu40%▲ 2
Pedro Sánchez21%▲ 5
Sébastien Lecornu18%▼ 3
Xi Jinping12%▲ 7
Miguel Díaz-Canel12%▼ 1
Edi Rama12%▼ 2
Delcy Rodriguez9%▲ 1
Volodymyr Zelenskyy8%▼ 1
Rodrigo Paz Pereira7%
Emmanuel Macron7%
Mohammed bin Salman7%

23 more

Friedrich Merz7%
Mette Frederiksen6%
Ramzan Kadyrov5%
Lee Jae Myung5%
Kim Jong Un5%
Denis Sassou Nguesso5%
Ahmad al-Sharaa5%
Vladimir Putin4%
Cyril Ramaphosa4%
Narendra Modi4%
Jens-Frederik Nielsen4%
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan4%
Félix Tshisekedi4%
Giorgia Meloni3%
Javier Milei3%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva3%▼ 1
Sanae Takaichi3%
Daniel Noboa3%
Irfaan Ali3%
Frederik X3%
Mark Carney3%
Claudia Sheinbaum3%
Nayib Bukele2%

How the odds have moved

Christopher Luxon: 48% on Oct 20, 46% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Christopher Luxon	46%		45¢	46¢	$2.17	17.0K
Benjamin Netanyahu	40%	▲ 2	39¢	40¢	$2.50	586.1K
Pedro Sánchez	21%	▲ 5	20¢	21¢	$4.76	61.6K
Sébastien Lecornu	18%	▼ 3	17¢	18¢	$5.56	2.5K
Xi Jinping	12%	▲ 7	11¢	12¢	$8.33	696.9K
Miguel Díaz-Canel	12%	▼ 1	11¢	12¢	$8.33	751.7K
Edi Rama	12%	▼ 2	10¢	13¢	$7.69	502
Delcy Rodriguez	9%	▲ 1	8¢	9¢	$11.11	24.8K
Volodymyr Zelenskyy	8%	▼ 1	8¢	8¢	$12.05	135.9K
Rodrigo Paz Pereira	7%		5¢	10¢	$10.42	5.0K
Emmanuel Macron	7%		6¢	9¢	$11.49	97.6K
Mohammed bin Salman	7%		7¢	8¢	$12.82	155.1K
Friedrich Merz	7%		6¢	8¢	$13.33	94.7K
Mette Frederiksen	6%		5¢	6¢	$16.39	13.4K
Ramzan Kadyrov	5%		4¢	6¢	$16.67	7.0K
Lee Jae Myung	5%		4¢	6¢	$16.95	9.9K
Kim Jong Un	5%		4¢	6¢	$17.54	58.7K
Denis Sassou Nguesso	5%		4¢	6¢	$16.67	1.5K
Ahmad al-Sharaa	5%		3¢	7¢	$15.15	28.6K
Vladimir Putin	4%		4¢	5¢	$22.22	801.9K
Cyril Ramaphosa	4%		1¢	7¢	$15.38	8.6K
Narendra Modi	4%		3¢	5¢	$20.83	7.9K
Jens-Frederik Nielsen	4%		2¢	5¢	$19.61	9.5K
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan	4%		3¢	5¢	$20.41	20.9K
Félix Tshisekedi	4%		2¢	6¢	$17.86	1.3K
Giorgia Meloni	3%		3¢	4¢	$22.73	8.4K
Javier Milei	3%		2¢	4¢	$25.64	5.4K
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva	3%	▼ 1	2¢	4¢	$23.81	68.5K
Sanae Takaichi	3%		1¢	4¢	$22.73	49.8K
Daniel Noboa	3%		1¢	4¢	$23.26	1.3K
Irfaan Ali	3%		1¢	4¢	$22.73	611
Frederik X	3%		1¢	4¢	$22.73	4.0K
Mark Carney	3%		1¢	4¢	$24.39	15.1K
Claudia Sheinbaum	3%		2¢	3¢	$34.48	150.4K
Nayib Bukele	2%		1¢	3¢	$35.71	6.3K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Christopher Luxon, Benjamin Netanyahu, Pedro Sánchez

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Israeli election to test Benjamin Netanyahu's ability to hold powerCBS News · 26 h agoOctober 25, 2026 / 9:27 AM EDT / CBS News Tens of thousands marched in Tel Aviv last night demanding Benjamin Netanyahu's government answer for the failures that led to the October 7 terror attacks. "We cannot be a dictatorship!" said one…
Benjamin Netanyahu and the weight of leadershipIsrael National News · 34 h agoThree decades at the center of Israel’s history. Opinion. Benjamin Netanyahu and the weight of leadership
Benjamin Netanyahu Warns of Potential Iranian Disruption Ahead of Israeli Elections | News18News18 · 13 h agoIsraeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has issued a fresh warning to Iran, saying Tehran and its regional allies could attempt attacks aimed at disrupting Israel’s upcoming elections. The statement has heightened attention on security…
Tuesday's elections could end Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's political careerThe Korea Times · 9 h agoA screen projects an image of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, left, and his main rival, opposition candidate Gadi Eisenkot, leader of the Yashar ("Straight") party, during a campaign rally for Eisenkot ahead of Israel's general…
Israel elections: Can Benjamin Netanyahu turn security gains into a political victory?The Times of India · 27 h agoThree years after the October 7 attack, Benjamin Netanyahu faces a crucial electoral test over security, political accountability and the direction of Israel.
Benjamin Netanyahu is destroying the case for a Jewish homelandYahoo News · 27 h agoIsrael goes to the polls on Tuesday, so I took one of those online tests to find out who, if I were as religious a Jew as I am a Christian, I'd likely vote for. The answer was a surprise: an Islamist group called Ra'am. So, what is the…
Israel Election 2026: Who Is Running? Check Benjamin Netanyahu, Gadi Eisenkot, Naftali Bennett, Key Parties and CandidatesThe Sunday Guardian · 21 h agoIsrael Election 2026: Israel is scheduled to hold its parliamentary election on October 27, 2026, to elect members of the 26th Knesset, the country’s legislature. The election will determine the balance of power in Israel’s 120-seat…
Benjamin Netanyahu is the only candidate feared by IranThe Jerusalem Post | JPost.com · 18 h agoHere is a question: Imagine social media had been around in the early 1930s. What would Winston Churchill's political rivals have said if he had posted images of German troops marching across Europe, warning of what was to come? Well, he…
Avigdor Liberman calls for criminal investigation into Benjamin Netanyahu for treasonThe Jerusalem Post | JPost.com · 7 h agoYisrael Beytenu, chairman Avigdor Liberman, called on Attorney-General Gali Baharav-Miara to open a criminal investigation into Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on suspicion of treason, according to a statement released on Monday…
Opposition beating Benjamin Netanyahu could lead to market boost, investors sayThe Jerusalem Post | JPost.com · 8 h agoIsrael's markets have soared despite three years of war and political turmoil, but some investors see further upside if the opposition defeats Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Tuesday’s election, potentially easing regional tensions…
Report: Benjamin Netanyahu, Eyal Zamir clash over Iran military 'action' before electionsThe Jerusalem Post | JPost.com · 17 h agoPrime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and IDF Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir clashed over a military action that could renew the conflict with Iran, N12 News reported Sunday evening. Recently, Zamir received a directive from the political echelon…
Benjamin Netanyahu presses Donald Trump for support ahead of Israel electionsThe Jerusalem Post | JPost.com · 22 h agoTwo days before Israel’s elections, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is intensifying his efforts to secure additional support from US President Donald Trump, who already gave him an extraordinary public endorsement last week. Two American…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onoffice or organization where person holds office, The New York Times, the Associated Press

Trading closesJan 1, 2027 10:17 PM ET

Traded$506K (3,908,575 contracts)

Today$2.6K

This week$62.8K

At stake$146K

In the news14 headlines today, 111 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If Benjamin Netanyahu has either officially announced their intention to leave as Prime Minister of Israel or has actually left Prime Minister of Israel before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions