Will Lai Ching-te visit the United States? (Before July 2027)

Kalshi Politics › World leaders Closes Jul 1, 2027 · $175 traded · $51 at stake · prices read 2 h ago

The odds

31%Before Jul 1, 2027

Before Jan 1, 20277%▲ 1
Before Jul 1, 202731%

How the odds have moved

Before Jan 1, 2027: 7% on Oct 19, 7% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Before Jan 1, 2027	7%	▲ 1	3¢	10¢	$10.00
Before Jul 1, 2027	31%		27¢	35¢	$2.86	565

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Lai Ching-te

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In seeking peace with Beijing, Taipei is an asset, not a burdenWorldNetDaily · 24 h ago'On its end, the West can never afford to yield on Taiwan's right to self-determination' In seeking peace with Beijing, Taipei is an asset, not a burden On October 10, in his Republic of China National Day address, Taiwanese President Lai…
Trump announces Taiwan will purchase 30% of Alaska LNG pipeline gas outputEnergies Media · 26 h agoTaiwan has agreed to buy 30% of the natural gas output from the Alaska LNG pipeline project. That’s the headline Trump dropped Tuesday in Wasilla, Alaska. It’s a big number — and a notable commitment involving Taiwan, the United States…
Taiwan shuts schools and grounds flights as Typhoon Champi brushes byThe Mainichi · 46 h agoOctober 24, 2026 (Mainichi Japan) Champi peaked at 298 kph (185 mph) maximum sustained winds earlier this week but has weakened to 155 kph (96 mph) winds as it approached Taiwan from the southwest. Its center is forecast to remain offshore…
Typhoon Champi Leaves 1 Dead, 350 Injured in Taiwan; Alters US-Japan Military ExerciseThe Epoch Times · 2 days agoTyphoon Champi left one person dead and 350 injured in Taiwan, disrupting air and rail travel and forcing a change to a military vessel’s port schedule during a major U.S.–Japan exercise near the island. Taiwan’s Central Emergency…
Typhoon Champi: Taiwan Braces For Powerful Winds And Heavy Rain As Storm Heads Towards China, JapanNews18 · 3 days agoTyphoon Champi, which developed over the Pacific Ocean, is passing close to Taiwan’s northeastern coast on October 23-24 before moving towards China and Japan. Although the storm has weakened from its earlier super typhoon strength, it…
China Compass | A tale of two National Days: China and Taiwan compete to be a model for the world@firstpost · 4 days agoFirstpost On 30 September, Communist Party of China General Secretary and Peopleâs Republic of China (PRC) President Xi Jinping delivered a speech to mark the 77th anniversary of the countryâs founding Across the Taiwan Strait, the…
World's strongest storm fueled by Super El Niño cancels flightsLatiNation · 3 days agoSuper El Niño weather patterns intensify Pacific typhoons while altering atmospheric structures from Asia to Europe. Super Typhoon Champi packs wind gusts reaching 185 mph as it barrels toward Taiwan, China and the Philippines. Taiwan…
Tite x IHT 2026: Taiwan Hardware Drives AI Co-CreationETMM · 3 days agoTaiwan’s hardware industry is putting joint product development, AI and smart manufacturing at the centre of its export strategy. Reflecting that shift, Tite x IHT 2026 brought together 450 exhibitors across more than 1,000 booths, with…
Difference between typhoon and hurricane as Super Typhoon Champi becomes strongest storm on EarthUNILAD · 3 days agoThere is one key difference that separates a typhoon and a hurricane While they come from the same family of tropical storms, typhoons and hurricanes have one main difference. Queries of such have appeared online after Super Typhoon Champi…
Typhoon Champi nears Taiwan, disrupts flights and U.S.-Japan drillsHonolulu Star-Advertiser · 3 days agoThursday, October 22, 2026 77° Today's Paper By Ben Blanchard, Yimou Lee, Mariko Katsumura and Tim Kelly / Reuters People walk through a market during rainfall as Typhoon Champi approaches, in Taipei, Taiwan, today. TAIPEI/TOKYO >> Taiwan…
Typhoon Champi heads towards Taiwan; over 150 flights cancelled, heavy rain warning issuedMathrubhumi English · 3 days agoTaipei: A powerful typhoon approaching Taiwan has prompted flight cancellations and warnings of torrential rain, strong winds and huge waves, as authorities put emergency services on standby ahead of its expected impact on Friday and…
Taiwan issues warnings as Typhoon Champi nearsFrance 24 · 3 days agoTaipei (AFP) – A powerful typhoon headed towards Taiwan on Thursday, triggering the cancellation of dozens of flights and prompting warnings for locals to prepare for heavy rain, strong winds and giant waves. Issued on: 22/10/2026…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onU.S. Department of State, Office of the President of the Republic of China (Taiwan), Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of China (Taiwan)

Trading closesJul 1, 2027 10:00 AM ET

Traded$175 (565 contracts)

This week$65

At stake$51

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If, after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, Lai Ching-te visits the United States of America by physically travelling to and being present within its geographic boundaries, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions