Texas Senate winner? (2026)
65%James Talarico
- James Talarico65%
- Ken Paxton36%
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Who will hold Amy Klobuchar's Senate seat on February 1, 2027?
The odds
26%Angie Craig
- Angie Craig26%▲ 13
- Steve Simon18%
- Kelly Morrison18%▼ 7
- No one10%▼ 1
- Amy Klobuchar4%
- Tim Walz3%
- Betty McCollum2%
- Erin Murphy2%
- Melisa López Franzen2%
- Keith Ellison2%
- Peggy Flanagan2%
- Ben Schierer2%
4 more
- Jacob Frey2%
- Ilhan Omar2%
- Jesse Ventura2%
- Tina Smith2%
How the odds have moved
Angie Craig: 15% on Oct 20, 26% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
- Oct 25, 7 PM ETAngie Craig: 17% → 26%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angie Craig | 26% | ▲ 13 | 26¢ | 35¢ | $2.86 | 1.7K |
| Steve Simon | 18% | 18¢ | 23¢ | $4.35 | 1.7K | |
| Kelly Morrison | 18% | ▼ 7 | 17¢ | 26¢ | $3.85 | 2.7K |
| No one | 10% | ▼ 1 | 7¢ | 17¢ | $5.88 | 448 |
| Amy Klobuchar | 4% | 1¢ | 9¢ | $11.11 | 401 | |
| Tim Walz | 3% | 7¢ | $14.29 | 239 | ||
| Betty McCollum | 2% | 6¢ | $16.67 | |||
| Erin Murphy | 2% | 6¢ | $16.67 | 169 | ||
| Melisa López Franzen | 2% | 6¢ | $16.67 | 94.00 | ||
| Keith Ellison | 2% | 6¢ | $16.67 | 156 | ||
| Peggy Flanagan | 2% | 6¢ | $16.67 | |||
| Ben Schierer | 2% | 1¢ | 5¢ | $20.00 | ||
| Jacob Frey | 2% | 1¢ | 5¢ | $20.00 | ||
| Ilhan Omar | 2% | 5¢ | $20.00 | |||
| Jesse Ventura | 2% | 5¢ | $20.00 | |||
| Tina Smith | 2% | 5¢ | $20.00 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Amy Klobuchar's Senate, Angie Craig, Kelly Morrison
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Will a progressive be able to keep Angie Craig’s district in DFL hands?A Democrat with progressive backing and a suburban Republican lawmaker are running for the congressional seat soon to be vacated by U.S. Rep. Angie Craig. The contest could show just how competitive the district remains since the eight… -
‘Political violence is a sickness’: Elected officials worry that attacks will escalateRepublicans and Democrats said Saturday’s killings in Minnesota were a chilling reminder of the threats they receive regularly. Investigators work outside the home of Democratic former House Speaker Melissa Hortman and her husband, Mark… -
Minnesota Democrats divided over Hasan Piker visit a week before midtermsUpdated on: October 22, 2026 / 9:47 PM CDT / CBS Minnesota A controversial left-wing commentator's visit to Minnesota one week before the midterm elections is dividing Democrats, many of whom are distancing themselves from him. Hasan… -
USDA: Tribal Advisory Committee Appointments Announced; Nominations Open for Additional Members(Washington, D.C., October 23, 2026, USDA) – The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) today announced the appointment of four members to the USDA Tribal Advisory Committee and a call for nominations to serve on the Committee. U.S… -
USDA Announces Tribal Advisory Committee Appointments and Opens Nominations for Additional MembersOfficial websites use .govA .gov Website belongs to an official government organization in the United States. Providing a safety net for millions of Americans who are food-insecure and for developing and promoting dietary guidance based on… -
Best Political Ad of the Cycle?My friend Tad Jude is running for Secretary of State in Minnesota, against the well-entrenched Steve Simon. Most observers haven’t given Tad much of a chance, unless the election turns out to be a red wave, at least in Minnesota. But this… -
Secretary of State candidate Tad Jude aims to 'clean up" MN fraudRepublican candidate for Minnesota Secretary of State, Tad Jude, is challenging incumbent Steve Simon. He says he supports requiring a government ID to vote and aims to clean up Minnesota's fraud problem. Jude also says a vote should be… -
NBC News Data Analyst Has Some Bad News for Dems in MinnesotaNBC News’s chief data analyst, on Wednesday morning said there is growing indication that Minnesota’s tight Senate race could swing in the GOP’s favor in the November election. “There does seem to be a tide within the state that’s working… -
The North Carolina Democrat Holding Out for IsraelNC Dept of Public Safety (CC BY-NC-ND 2.0) Pro-Israel hawks like U.S. Senate candidate Roy Cooper are a rapidly shrinking group within the Democratic Party. One measure of this shift is that the once-influential Democratic Majority for… -
Amy Klobuchar, Angie Craig condemn Hasan Piker ahead of planned Minneapolis event with Ilhan Omar‘The Senator believes that a number of the statements [Piker] has made are reckless and unacceptable,’ a spokesperson for Klobuchar told JI Sam Barnes/Web Summit via Sportsfile via Getty Images Hasan Piker during day two of Web Summit… -
Matt Little and Eric Pratt are offering clear choices in a quiet race for CongressWASHINGTON – An open seat for Congress usually results in an expensive, combative and high-profile contest to fill it. But the race for Minnesota’s 2nd Congressional District seat, which is up for grabs with the retirement of Rep. Angie… - Mary Ellen Klas: Election fraud is hard. Convincing voters it exists is easyMary Ellen Klas Bloomberg Opinion A Delaware County secured drop box for the return of vote-by-mail ballots is pictured, May 2, 2022, in Newtown Square, Pa. I recently spoke with a naturalized U.S. citizen from Venezuela who lives in…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions