Will Kenya and the US reach a critical minerals deal? (Before Apr 1, 2027)

Kalshi Politics › World leaders Closes Apr 1, 2027 · $578 traded · $305 at stake · prices read 4 h ago

The odds

41%Before Apr 1, 2027

Before Nov 1, 20266%
Before Dec 1, 202614%▲ 1
Before Jan 1, 202724%
Before Apr 1, 202741%

How the odds have moved

Before Nov 1, 2026: 8% on Oct 19, 6% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Before Nov 1, 2026	6%		3¢	9¢	$11.11
Before Dec 1, 2026	14%	▲ 1	10¢	17¢	$5.88	56.00
Before Jan 1, 2027	24%		20¢	28¢	$3.57	2.4K
Before Apr 1, 2027	41%		37¢	45¢	$2.22	2.00

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Kenya

Search ›

Kenyan cult leader found guilty in the murder of 190 children | CNNCNN · 6 days agoPaul Mackenzie, the leader of a Christian cult, has been found guilty of the murder of 190 children. Mackenzie was convicted along with about 30 other suspects in connection with the deaths of 191 people, all but one of them children…
BBC Audio | Outside Source | Kenyan doomsday cult leader guilty of 191 murdersBBC News · 6 days agoThe leader of a Kenyan doomsday cult, Paul Mackenzie, has been found guilty of murdering 191 people, all but one of them children. Our correspondent explains. Australian MP Helen Haines is critically ill in hospital in Melbourne after…
Kenya cult leader who told parents to starve children guilty of 191 murdersBBC News · 6 days agoThe leader of a Kenyan doomsday cult, Paul Mackenzie, has been found guilty of murdering 191 people, all but one of them children. Mackenzie ordered members of his cult to starve their children to death so they could "meet Jesus". His…
Kenyan starvation cult leader guilty of murder of 190 children and one adultthe Guardian · 6 days agoPaul Mackenzie and his church set up sect that ordered followers to starve themselves and their children, say prosecutors A Kenyan court has found the starvation cult leader Paul Mackenzie and about 30 others guilty of murder over the…
Kenyan doomsday cult leader and followers convicted of murdering 190 children in mass starvationNew York Post · 6 days agoMOMBASA, Kenya — A Kenyan court on Monday found starvation cult leader Paul Mackenzie and about 30 others guilty of murder over the deaths of 190 children and one adult in one of the world’s worst cult-related disasters in recent history…
Starvation cult leader found guilty of murder of 190 children, 1 adult in KenyaCBS News · 6 days agoOctober 19, 2026 / 12:13 PM EDT / CBS/AFP A self-proclaimed Kenyan preacher and his associates were found guilty of murdering 191 people, all but one of them children, in an infamous starvation cult by a Mombasa court on Monday. "I am…
Third Ebola case in Kenya highlights US failures amid Trump cuts to key servicesthe Guardian · 6 days agoOpposition to US-led quarantine center in Kenya follows sweeping funding cuts and withdrawal from WHO A third person in Kenya has tested positive for Bundibugyo ebolavirus in the country’s first-ever cluster of Ebola cases, as the…
Kenya: Paul Mackenzie wasabaga ababyeyi kwicisha abana inzara yahamwe no kwica abayoboke 191 b'idini ryeBBC News Gahuza · 6 days agoAhavuye isanamu, AFP via Getty Images Urukiko rwo muri Kenya rwahamije Paul Mackenzie, wavugaga ko ari pasiteri, icyaha cyo kwica abantu 191, barimo abana 190 n'umuntu mukuru umwe. Ibi byabereye mu idini ryari ryarashinze ibikorwa byaryo…
Leader of Kenyan doomsday cult that left more than 400 followers dead convicted of 191 murdersThe Washington Post · 6 days agoBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. A Kenyan doomsday cult…
Kenya starvation cult leader on trial for manslaughter over deaths of more than 400 followersCBS News · 6 days agoAugust 12, 2024 / 6:48 AM EDT / AFP The leader of a Kenyan starvation sect went on trial on Monday for manslaughter over the deaths of more than 400 of his followers in one of the world's worst cult-related tragedies. Self-proclaimed…
Kenyan cult leader found guilty over 190 children starved to death in the hope of ‘meeting Jesus’CNN · 6 days agoThe leader of a Kenyan Christian cult has been found guilty of the murder of 190 children. Paul Mackenzie was on Monday convicted along with about 30 other suspects over the deaths of 191 people, all but one of them children in Shakahola…
Judgement day for Kenya pastor accused of ordering parents to starve their children to deathBBC News · 7 days agoPaul Mackenzie operated his church for 16 years, attracting thousands of followers A Kenyan court is set to deliver a judgement in a mass murder case involving doomsday preacher Paul Mackenzie. Mackenzie and 29 of his followers are being…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onGovernment of Kenya, The New York Times, the Associated Press

Trading closesApr 1, 2027 10:00 AM ET

Traded$578 (2,431 contracts)

At stake$305

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If Kenya has agreed to, signed, or accepted a critical minerals agreement with the United States before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions