Brazil Presidential Election
80%Flávio Bolsonaro
- Flávio Bolsonaro80%
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva20%▲ 1
Install
Kenya United Opposition presidential flagbearer? (Before Jun 12, 2027)
The odds
47%Kalonzo Musyoka
- Kalonzo Musyoka47%▼ 1
- Fred Matiang'i14%
- Edwin Sifuna6%
- Rigathi Gachagua6%▲ 1
- David Maraga4%
- Martha Karua3%
- Justin Muturi3%
How the odds have moved
Kalonzo Musyoka: 48% on Oct 19, 47% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalonzo Musyoka | 47% | ▼ 1 | 42¢ | 51¢ | $1.96 | |
| Fred Matiang'i | 14% | 10¢ | 19¢ | $5.26 | ||
| Edwin Sifuna | 6% | 2¢ | 10¢ | $10.00 | ||
| Rigathi Gachagua | 6% | ▲ 1 | 1¢ | 10¢ | $10.00 | 88.00 |
| David Maraga | 4% | 1¢ | 6¢ | $16.67 | ||
| Martha Karua | 3% | 1¢ | 5¢ | $20.00 | ||
| Justin Muturi | 3% | 1¢ | 5¢ | $20.00 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Kenya United Opposition, Kalonzo Musyoka, Fred Matiang'i
Search ›-
Kenyan Newspapers, October 21: Edwin Sifuna to Support Whichever Candidate Opposition Will DecideThe newspaper reported on the opposition having begun negotiations to settle on a joint presidential candidate to challenge President William Ruto in the August 10, 2027 presidential election, with less than 10 months remaining before the… -
Edwin Sifuna Officially Ditches TEP Party; Forms New MovementNairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna’s political party, The Equitable Party (TEP), has officially transitioned to the Linda Mwananchi Movement name after no objections were raised during the seven-day period provided by the Registrar of Political… -
‘I Sent Youth to Look for Buffalo Milk’: Gachagua Takes Fresh Swipe at RutoFormer Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua has once again mocked President William Ruto’s suggestion for Kenyans to explore buffalo milk as an alternative dairy source during drought-related shortages. Gachagua, who recently returned to… -
Gachagua Mocks Ruto’s Buffalo Milk Proposal During High-Profile Meeting With Opposition LeadersBy Dennis Elnino on October 21, 2026 Former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua has publicly mocked President William Ruto’s suggestion that Kenyans consider consuming buffalo milk to address nationwide dairy shortages caused by ongoing… -
Gachagua Jokes About Buffalo Milk as Opposition Leaders Visit WamunyoroFormer Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua has mocked President William Ruto’s proposal to explore buffalo milk production, using the remarks to criticise the government’s agricultural policies as he held talks with opposition leaders ahead… -
Matiang'i Announces Joint Rally With Martha Karua, Ndindi Nyoro [Details]Jubilee Party leader Fred Matiang’i, People’s Liberation Party (PLP) leader Martha Karua and People’s Party of Kenya (PPK) leader Ndindi Nyoro are set to hold a joint rally in Njoro, Nakuru County. The three leaders are expected to conduct… - Gachagua, Sifuna, Kalonzo emerge as potential opposition flagbearers for 2027 presidential electionThe Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP) leader Rigathi Gachagua on Tuesday met the Linda Mwananchi movement leadership at his Wamunyoro residence in Nyeri for discussions on the 2027 poll game plan. According to sources privy to the…
-
Pauline Njoroge Compares Edwin Sifuna to Biblical David in Kenya’s Search for ChangePolitical communicator Pauline Njoroge has endorsed Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna, describing him as a key figure in Kenya’s quest for political and national renewal. Drawing parallels between ancient Israel and modern Kenya, Pauline argued… -
Gachagua hosts Sifuna as opposition 2027 presidential ticket debate intensifiesDCP party leader Rigathi Gachagua on Tuesday October 20, 2026 met leaders of the Linda Mwananchi faction, led by Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna, at his Wamunyoro residence following his return to the country from the United States. The… -
Drama Unfolds in Church as Politicians Walk Out During SpeechA tense moment unfolded in a Nairobi church when prominent Kenyan politicians staged a walkout during a speech by Edwin Sifuna. Musalia Mudavadi and Moses Wetang'ula left the gathering, drawing significant attention t… Drama Unfolds in… -
Sifuna Backs Wamunyoro Talks as Amisi Cautions Against Endorsing Gachagua for PresidentNairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna has defended his engagement with Democracy for the Citizens Party (DCP) leader Rigathi Gachagua, arguing that political alliances should not be limited by regional or ethnic considerations. Speaking during a… -
Mudavadi and Wetangula walk out as Sifuna speaks at Nabwera memorialR-L: Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi, National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetangula and Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna A political drama at a Lang’ata requiem mass lays bare the fault lines fracturing Western Kenya’s political…
Related markets
All around the world ›Serbia Parliamentary Election Winner
52%Student List – Students Win
- Student List – Students Win52%▲ 24
- Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia48%▼ 24
- Ivica Dačić – Factor of Stability!<1%
7 more
- Rasim Ljajić – Humane (SDP – CDP)<1%
- Alliance of Vojvodina Hungarians – Dr Bálint Pásztor<1%
- Usame Zukorlić Movement for Unification<1%
- Russian Party – Serbia in BRICS – Slobodan Nikolić<1%
- Authentic Right – Dr Miloš Jovanović<1%
- European Serbia – Marinika Tepić, Zdravko Ponoš<1%
- SDA of Sandžak – Guardians of Sandžak<1%
Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory
46%Flávio Bolsonaro <4%
- Flávio Bolsonaro <4%46%▲ 7
- Flávio Bolsonaro 4-8%29%▼ 5
- Lula da Silva <4%18%▲ 1
5 more
- Flávio Bolsonaro 8-12%4%▼ 2
- Flávio Bolsonaro 12%+1%▼ 1
- Lula da Silva 4-8%1%
- Lula da Silva 8-12%<1%
- Lula da Silva 12%+<1%
Next French Presidential Election
45%Marine Le Pen
- Marine Le Pen45%▼ 1
- Édouard Philippe16%▼ 1
- David Lisnard14%
42 more
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon12%▲ 1
- Raphaël Glucksmann3%▼ 1
- François Hollande2%
- Bruno Retailleau1%
- Éric Zemmour1%
- Jordan Bardella1%
- Sarah Knafo1%
- Gabriel Attal1%▼ 1
- Dominique de Villepin1%
- Sébastien Lecornu<1%
- Christine Lagarde<1%
- Xavier Bertrand<1%
- Marion Maréchal<1%
- Natacha Polony<1%
- François Ruffin<1%
- Marine Tondelier<1%
- Ségolène Royal<1%
- François Asselineau<1%
- Jean Castex<1%
- Laurent Wauquiez<1%
- Fabien Roussel<1%
- Olivier Faure<1%
- Clémentine Autain<1%
- Nicolas Dupont-Aignan<1%
- Michel Barnier<1%
- Valérie Pécresse<1%
- François Bayrou<1%
- Élisabeth Borne<1%
- Yaël Braun-Pivet<1%
- Gérald Darmanin<1%
- Carole Delga<1%
- Bernard Cazeneuve<1%
- Manuel Bompard<1%
- Mathilde Panot<1%
- Juan Branco<1%
- Clémence Guetté<1%
- Karim Bouamrane<1%
- Lucie Castets<1%
- Yannick Jadot<1%
- François Baroin<1%
- Anasse Kazib<1%
- Sylvain Durif<1%
Israeli Legislative Election Winner
68%Yashar
- Yashar68%▼ 1
- Likud31%▲ 1
- Together<1%
3 more
- Shas<1%
- The Democrats<1%
- Otzma Yehudit<1%
Brazil Presidential election winner?
80%Flávio Bolsonaro
- Flávio Bolsonaro80%▲ 1
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva20%▼ 1
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.