Ciudad Juárez mayoral election winner? (2027)

Kalshi Elections › Around the world Closes Jun 5, 2028 · prices read 8 h ago

The odds

76%Morena

Morena76%
PAN18%
MC4%

How the odds have moved

Morena: 76% on Oct 19, 76% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Bid	Ask	Pays
Morena	76%	72¢	80¢	$1.25
PAN	18%	14¢	22¢	$4.55
MC	4%	1¢	7¢	$14.29

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Ciudad Juárez

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Sheinbaum Ties Ex-Prosecutor to CIA AgentsThe Rio Times · 45 h agoMEXICO · US RELATIONS · SECURITY President Claudia Sheinbaum said on Friday 23 October 2026 that Chihuahua’s governor blamed a former state prosecutor for bringing CIA agents into a drug-lab raid. The CIA is the US foreign intelligence…
Mexico on the Verge of Leaving the Hunger MapMexico Solidarity Media · 7 days agoThis article by Laura Poy Solano originally appeared in the October 17, 2026 edition of La Jornada, Mexico’s premier left wing daily newspaper. In a global context with multiple challenges for food production, Mexico “is doing well,” said…
Texas House District 77 pits incumbent Vince Perez against political newcomer Humberto PerezEl Paso Matters · 9 days agoVoters in District 77 for the Texas House of Representatives – which runs from Sunland Park Drive to part of the Lower Valley – have a choice between Democratic incumbent Vincent “Vince” Perez or plumber and political newcomer Humberto…
Mexico Does Not Have the Capacity to Confront the Cartels, Trump SaysMexico Solidarity Media · 10 days agoThis article by La Redacción originally appeared in the October 15, 2026 edition of La Jornada, Mexico’s premier left wing daily newspaper. US President Donald Trump reiterated to his Mexican counterpart, Claudia Sheinbaum, that the…
People’s Mañanera October 15Mexico Solidarity Media · 10 days agoEvery day, President Claudia Sheinbaum gives a morning presidential press conference and Mexico Solidarity Media posts English language summaries, translated by Mexico Solidarity’s Pedro Gellert. Previous press conference summaries are…
Jalisco Governor Unleashes Repression – Soberanía 128Mexico Solidarity Media · 10 days agoThen they cover the left and the internet. President Sheinbaum goes live on Instagram and TikTok for the first time, calling for regulation of violent online content and addressing Anabel Hernández’s fake news about her marijuana use. They…
Mexico Trial Migration ChiefGazetteXtra · 11 days agoGazetteXtra FILE - Mexican National Immigration Institute Chief Francisco GarduÃ±o, front, arrives to court in Ciudad Juarez, Mexico, April 21, 2023. Orfordville man killed after motorcycle strikes pickup truck Five potential measles cases…
My Turn | I woke up mad ... againThe News-Gazette · 12 days agoThis morning, I woke up mad again. This has been the case now for more than a year. I feel my country, its democratic ideals and its ever evolving path to being a more just nation slowly withering away. This morning, I am mad for many…
Journal poll: Gabe Vasquez leads Greg Cunningham in competitive House electionabqjournal · 13 days agoWith three weeks to go before the Nov. 3 election, the contest for the U.S. House seat representing southern and southwestern New Mexico remains competitive, with independent voters poised to influence the outcome as Democrat Gabe Vasquez…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 5 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onInstituto Estatal Electoral de Chihuahua, Instituto Nacional Electoral

Trading closesJun 5, 2028 10:00 AM ET

Traded$0 (0 contracts)

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If the candidate of the registered coalition that includes Morena wins the 2027 Ciudad Juárez mayoral election, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

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Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions