Who will be Israeli national security minister after the election? (Before Oct 27, 2027)

Kalshi Elections › Around the world Closes Oct 27, 2027 · $4 today · $1.5K traded · $917 at stake · prices read 13 min ago

The odds

14%Itamar Ben-Gvir

Itamar Ben-Gvir14%▼ 2
Yoram Cohen12%▼ 1
Bezalel Smotrich4%
Matan Kahana4%
Yitzhak Wasserlauf4%
Ofer Winter3%
Ram Ben-Barak3%
Talya Lankri3%
Yoaz Hendel3%
Amir Ohana2%
Eli Cohen2%
Amichai Eliyahu1%

12 more

Avi Dichter1%
Chili Tropper1%
Elazar Stern1%
Gideon Sa'ar1%
Haim Katz1%
Hamad Amar1%
Limor Son Har-Melech1%
Meirav Ben-Ari1%
Tally Gotliv1%
Yair Golan1%
Yoav Segalovitz1%
Yossi Cohen1%

How the odds have moved

Itamar Ben-Gvir: 14% on Oct 20, 14% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Itamar Ben-Gvir	14%	▼ 2	11¢	17¢	$5.88	3.7K
Yoram Cohen	12%	▼ 1	8¢	16¢	$6.25	878
Bezalel Smotrich	4%			8¢	$12.50	100
Matan Kahana	4%			8¢	$12.50	99.00
Yitzhak Wasserlauf	4%			7¢	$14.29	2.9K
Ofer Winter	3%			6¢	$16.67	60.00
Ram Ben-Barak	3%			5¢	$20.00
Talya Lankri	3%			5¢	$20.00
Yoaz Hendel	3%			5¢	$20.00
Amir Ohana	2%			4¢	$25.00	3.2K
Eli Cohen	2%			4¢	$25.00
Amichai Eliyahu	1%			2¢	$50.00	6.2K
Avi Dichter	1%			2¢	$50.00	5.5K
Chili Tropper	1%			2¢	$50.00	5.1K
Elazar Stern	1%			2¢	$50.00	5.8K
Gideon Sa'ar	1%			2¢	$50.00	4.8K
Haim Katz	1%			2¢	$50.00	4.8K
Hamad Amar	1%			2¢	$50.00	6.1K
Limor Son Har-Melech	1%			2¢	$50.00	3.2K
Meirav Ben-Ari	1%			2¢	$50.00	6.3K
Tally Gotliv	1%			2¢	$50.00	4.8K
Yair Golan	1%			2¢	$50.00	4.6K
Yoav Segalovitz	1%			1¢	$100.00	8.1K
Yossi Cohen	1%			1¢	$100.00	5.5K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Itamar Ben-Gvir, Yoram Cohen, Bezalel Smotrich

Search ›

Who is Itamar Ben-Gvir, the Israeli firebrand rising with the populist right across the globe?Fox News · 14 h agoKnesset candidate Yishai Fleisher discusses party leader Itamar Ben-Gvir, one of Israel’s most controversial politicians, who could have a major say in Netanyahu’s political future as Israelis prepare to vote on Tuesday. Polling ahead of…
Itamar Ben-Gvir, Bezalel Smotrich should be excluded from government, Bill Ackman saysThe Jerusalem Post | JPost.com · 17 h agoJewish billionaire Bill Ackman condemned National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich in a Sunday Twitter/X post, just days before the Israeli election, saying a new government should not include them…
Donald Trump advisers press for Israeli unity government excluding Itamar Ben-Gvir, Bezalel SmotrichThe Jerusalem Post | JPost.com · 14 min agoVoices within US President Donald Trump's inner circle are advocating for the establishment of a broad and moderate Israeli unity government without National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, with…
Gaza is 'Jewish people's land' Itamar Ben-Gvir tells 'Post' | The Jerusalem PostThe Jerusalem Post | JPost.com · 10 h agoGazans should be sent to emigrate to France or other countries in Europe so that Israel can “conquer the whole territory” of the Gaza Strip, far Right National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir told The Jerusalem Post in a recent…
Israel Election 2026: Benjamin Netanyahu, Itamar Ben-Gvir backed Ra'am in 2021, Bezalel Smotrich saysThe Jerusalem Post | JPost.com · 4 days agoNational Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir (Otzma Yehudit) and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu agreed in 2021 to a proposed coalition arrangement with Ra'am, Finance Minister and Religious Zionist Party chairman Bezalel Smotrich told…
Benjamin Netanyahu must reject unity government with Gadi Eisenkot, Itamar Ben-Gvir tells 'Post' | The Jerusalem PostThe Jerusalem Post | JPost.com · 3 days agoFar-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir sharply criticized Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s alleged desire to form a “unity government” with Yashar party leader Gadi Eisenkot in an interview with The Jerusalem Post this…
Bezalel Smotrich on his meritsIsrael National News · 3 days agoWhy accomplishments and a realistic understanding of political power must be the main factors behind the votes of Israel’s identity-politicized Religious Zionists. Opinion. Bezalel Smotrich on his merits
Israel is holding its most important election in years. Here’s what’s at stakeCNN · 15 h agoWhen Israelis go the polls on October 27, they will face a familiar question: Should Benjamin Netanyahu, the country’s longest-serving prime minister, stay in power? Nearly every recent election has been a referendum on Netanyahu. This…
Israel's Ben-Gvir’s rise mirrors populist right’s gains across WestFox News · 14 h agoKnesset candidate Yishai Fleisher discusses party leader Itamar Ben-Gvir, one of Israel’s most controversial politicians, who could have a major say in Netanyahu’s political future as Israelis prepare to vote on Tuesday. Israel's…
Bill Ackman: 'Govt. without Ben Gvir, Smotrich would help Israel diplomatically'Israel National News · 22 h agoAmerican billionaire investor Bill Ackman weighed in on Israel's political future ahead of the Knesset elections, arguing that a government formed without National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich…
Israeli forces begin demolishing Palestinian buildings in Hebron after two Israeli soldiers shot deadBBC News · 3 days agoDiggers were seen demolishing Palestinian homes on Friday afternoon The Israeli military has begun demolishing Palestinian buildings in the city of Hebron, after two Israeli soldiers were killed in an attack by two Palestinian gunmen…
"Enormous Damage": Trump Backer Ackman urges Israel to Drop Ben-Gvir and SmotrichAl Bawaba · 13 h agoALBAWABA — Billionaire investor and Donald Trump supporter Bill Ackman called on Sunday for Israel’s next government to exclude far-right ministers Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, two days before the country’s election. Writing on X…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onthe Associated Press, Bloomberg News, Reuters

Trading closesOct 27, 2027 10:00 AM ET

Traded$1.5K (81,548 contracts)

Today$4

At stake$917

In the news1 headlines today, 13 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If Amichai Eliyahu formally takes office as Minister of National Security as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election before Oct 27, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions