Brazil Presidential Election
90%Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva90%▲ 74
- Flávio Bolsonaro10%▼ 74
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Who will be Israeli foreign minister after the election? (Before Oct 27, 2027)
The odds
24%Yair Lapid
- Yair Lapid24%▼ 1
- Gideon Sa'ar7%▼ 9
- Naftali Bennett7%▼ 2
- Avigdor Lieberman6%▼ 1
- Gadi Eisenkot5%▲ 1
- Israel Katz3%▼ 2
- Yair Golan2%▲ 1
- Benjamin Netanyahu1%▼ 3
- Chili Tropper1%
- Einat Wilf1%
- Yoram Cohen1%
- Yossi Cohen1%
4 more
- Amir Ohana1%▼ 2
- Benny Gantz1%
- Eli Cohen1%▼ 2
- Ron Dermer1%▼ 2
How the odds have moved
Yair Lapid: 22% on Oct 19, 24% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yair Lapid | 24% | ▼ 1 | 23¢ | 24¢ | $4.17 | 334 |
| Gideon Sa'ar | 7% | ▼ 9 | 6¢ | 7¢ | $14.29 | 130 |
| Naftali Bennett | 7% | ▼ 2 | 5¢ | 8¢ | $12.50 | 197 |
| Avigdor Lieberman | 6% | ▼ 1 | 4¢ | 7¢ | $14.29 | |
| Gadi Eisenkot | 5% | ▲ 1 | 2¢ | 7¢ | $14.29 | 2.2K |
| Israel Katz | 3% | ▼ 2 | 5¢ | $20.00 | ||
| Yair Golan | 2% | ▲ 1 | 3¢ | $33.33 | 4.8K | |
| Benjamin Netanyahu | 1% | ▼ 3 | 2¢ | $50.00 | 6.4K | |
| Chili Tropper | 1% | 2¢ | $50.00 | 3.6K | ||
| Einat Wilf | 1% | 2¢ | $50.00 | 5.8K | ||
| Yoram Cohen | 1% | 2¢ | $50.00 | 3.1K | ||
| Yossi Cohen | 1% | 2¢ | $50.00 | 3.4K | ||
| Amir Ohana | 1% | ▼ 2 | 1¢ | $100.00 | ||
| Benny Gantz | 1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | 5.1K | ||
| Eli Cohen | 1% | ▼ 2 | 1¢ | $100.00 | ||
| Ron Dermer | 1% | ▼ 2 | 1¢ | $100.00 | 2.0K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Yair Lapid, Gideon Sa'ar, Naftali Bennett
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Yair Lapid's Morocco visit has turned into a farceIsraeli Foreign Minister Yair Lapid's visit to Morocco this week is not a historical event, since the kingdom normalised its relations with Israel back in December 2020. However, this high-profile visit has started to look like a national… -
Israel Elections 2026: Who Are Benjamin Netanyahu’s Political Rivals? A Look At Former Military Chief Gadi Eisenkot, Ex-PM Naftali Bennett And Other Opposition LeadersThis election is being held in a time of discussion regarding national security, government response to the October 2023 Hamas-led attack, war in Gaza, military service exemption from ultra-Orthodox Jews, and the high cost of living. Gadi… - Anti-Netanyahu bloc weighs minority government as Naftali Bennett, Avigdor Liberman oppose planIsrael's anti-Netanyahu bloc is preparing for the possibility of forming a minority government after the upcoming elections, despite opposition from Avigdor Liberman and Naftali Bennett, while a broad agreement is emerging among the…
- Yair Lapid: The upcoming election is about what we want Israel to be - opinionHere’s what I did on a typical morning this week before 8 a.m. I was interviewed on the radio to discuss someone on Channel 14 calling Gadi Eisenkot a “monkey,” and Yinon Magal describing Ofri Bibas, whose brother returned from captivity…
- Middle Israel: Why Naftali Bennett should be Israel's next prime minister - opinionThe issues are clear. Israelis will judge their leaders next Tuesday on three fronts: accountability, duty, and merit. Accountability should dominate, as the trauma of autumn 2023 is etched in every voter’s mind. Two facts about this…
- Naftali Bennett pledges to maintain Yellow Line in Gaza, declare Qatar enemy stateFormer prime minister and B'Yachad party leader Naftali Bennett pledged to maintain the Yellow Line in Gaza and declare Qatar an enemy state in an effort to destroy Hamas if elected at the Gaza Border Communities Conference 2026 on Sunday…
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Netanyahu cancels all Friday campaign events due to West Bank shooting attackLed by former prime ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, the center-right alliance seeks to replace Netanyahu's government, introduce universal military conscription, lower the cost of living and strengthen democratic institutions… -
POLITICAL CLASH: Katz Warns Opposition Will Bear Responsibility For Any Future Attack On IsraelDefense Minister Yisrael Katz issued a sharp warning Thursday against opposition leaders Yair Lapid, Naftali Bennett, and Yair Golan, declaring that they would bear responsibility for any future attack against Israel because of their… -
Defense Minister Katz: Opposition to Blame for Any Future Terror Attacks on Israel'Any attack on Israel will be attributed to Yair Lapid, Naftali Bennett, Yair Golan and their partners,' Defense Minister Israel Katz said. Eisenkot, the opposition frontrunner, said Katz's statement was 'preparing the ground for the next… -
Israel Elections: ‘Not Getting Involved’ – US Vice President JD Vance Declines to Endorse Incumbent Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu in Surprising StanceIsrael Elections: US Vice President JD Vance has refused to endorse Benjamin Netanyahu ahead of the country’s upcoming general elections. Vance has said that he would prefer to not get involved and rather focus on the midterm elections in… -
Katz: Opposition leaders will bear responsibility for any enemy attackIsraeli Defense Minister Israel Katz on Thursday morning criticized "Together" party chairmen Naftali Bennett and MK Yair Lapid, Democrats chair MK Yair Golan, and their colleagues in the opposition. In his statement, Katz said that any… - Israel election 2026: Gadi Eisenkot, Naftali Bennett gain as Benjamin Netanyahu slipsYashar party leader Gadi Eisenkot and B'Yachad party leader Naftali Bennett gained ground in the latest Knesset election poll, while Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud weakened, widening the gap between the two largest parties to…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 5 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions