Which lists will win a Knesset seat? (Oct 27, 2026)

Kalshi Elections › Around the world Closes Oct 27, 2027 · $490 today · $8.4K traded · $4.7K at stake · prices read 23 min ago

The odds

98%Likud

Likud98%
Shas98%
Yashar98%
Otzma Yehudit98%
Together97%
Ra'am97%▲ 2
Yisrael Beiteinu97%
Joint List (Hadash–Ta'al–Balad)96%▲ 1
The Democrats96%▼ 1
United Torah Judaism96%
RZP-Zehut96%▲ 2
Reservists–Economic Party46%▲ 7

11 more

People of Israel45%▲ 9
Religious Zionist Party19%▲ 13
Haredi Public8%▲ 3
Israel First6%
Noam for Israel6%
Zehut5%
Unity4%
A Place for All of Us3%
New Economic Party3%
Zionist Home–The Reservists2%
Blue and White1%

How the odds have moved

Likud: 98% on Oct 20, 98% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Likud	98%		96¢		$1.02	400
Shas	98%		96¢		$1.02	898
Yashar	98%		96¢		$1.02	338
Otzma Yehudit	98%		95¢		$1.03	200
Together	97%		94¢		$1.03	400
Ra'am	97%	▲ 2	93¢		$1.04	512
Yisrael Beiteinu	97%		93¢		$1.04	417
Joint List (Hadash–Ta'al–Balad)	96%	▲ 1	93¢	99¢	$1.01
The Democrats	96%	▼ 1	92¢		$1.04
United Torah Judaism	96%		92¢		$1.04
RZP-Zehut	96%	▲ 2	94¢	97¢	$1.03	655
Reservists–Economic Party	46%	▲ 7	44¢	47¢	$2.13	3.4K
People of Israel	45%	▲ 9	41¢	48¢	$2.08	5.1K
Religious Zionist Party	19%	▲ 13	14¢	23¢	$4.35	2.7K
Haredi Public	8%	▲ 3	6¢	9¢	$11.11	597
Israel First	6%		3¢	9¢	$11.11	799
Noam for Israel	6%		2¢	10¢	$10.00	748
Zehut	5%			9¢	$11.11	726
Unity	4%			7¢	$14.29	52.00
A Place for All of Us	3%			6¢	$16.67	893
New Economic Party	3%			5¢	$20.00	4.5K
Zionist Home–The Reservists	2%			4¢	$25.00	4.6K
Blue and White	1%			2¢	$50.00	492

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Knesset

Search ›

Bennett-Lapid list pitches unity ahead of Knesset electionIsrael & Jewish News - JNS · 29 h agoFormer Prime Minister Naftali Bennett’s B’Yachad party told JNS on Sunday that it is optimistic about this week’s Knesset election, “in part because we know the people of Israel are the best in the world.” The campaign said the Jewish…
From Gaza battlefield to Knesset: Elisha Medan's plea for unityIsrael National News · 22 h agoElisha Medan, who lost both legs fighting in Gaza, calls for a broad coalition and says he is ready to compromise to unite Israel's Zionist camps. From Gaza battlefield to Knesset: Elisha Medan's plea for unity
Faded Netanyahu Trails Behind Rival Eisenkot in Israel Knesset Pollsdeccanchronicle.com · 32 h agoDimona: In the remote Negev Desert town of Dimona, long a bastion of Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party, disenchanted voters are going door-to-door campaigning for his top rival Gadi Eisenkot, hoping to bring down the veteran prime minister…
MASSIVE OPERATION: Israel Prepares 450 Million Ballot Slips, 100,000 Workers For Knesset Elections@YWN · 26 h agoIsrael’s Central Elections Committee is preparing for more than 7.3 million eligible voters to cast their ballots Tuesday, October 27, in elections for the 26th Knesset, with a nationwide operation budgeted at NIS 690 million. The…
SEE THE VIDEO: Shas MK Tears Up Coalition Agreement at Knesset Podium@YWN · 31 h agoMK Michael Malkieli (Shas) gave his first speech as an opposition member in the Knesset. During the very combative speech, Malkieli referred to the newly appointed Prime Minister Naftali Bennett as “the Con Man from Ra’anana”, and Avigdor…
Iran-born former Mossad officer running for Knesset urges end of Islamic RepublicIran International · 2 days agoNazanin Sharifian, an Iran-born former Mossad officer running for Israel’s parliament with Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party, told Iran International that Israel should step up military and economic pressure on the Islamic Republic’s leaders…
Haredi party leader defies pressure ahead of Knesset voteThe Jerusalem Post | JPost.com · 2 days agoHaredi Public Party chairman Moti Leitner insisted that his party would cross the electoral threshold in the upcoming Knesset election despite pressure from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and established haredi parties to withdraw from…
First time voters could determine as many as 12 Knesset seats with high turnoutThe Jerusalem Post | JPost.com · 17 h agoOn Oct. 27, Yael Chernyvsky, 18, from Ramat Hasharon in central Israel, plans to cast her ballot for the first time. “I’m voting so we can change the future of this country,” the teen told Jewish Telegraphic Agency earlier this month. She…
Meet the Americans hoping to secure a seat in the next KnessetJewish Insider · 3 days agoSeveral candidates in Tuesday’s elections have ties to the U.S., a trend that goes back to the beginning of the State of Israel Broaden that out to people who spent formative years in America or have American parents, and you have another…
Achi Party, led by Rabbi Yoram Abargil, withdraws from Knesset runIsrael National News · 3 days agoAchi Party, led by Rabbi Yoram Abargil, withdraws from Knesset run
Blue and White Party’s Benny Gantz Quits Knesset RaceThe Jewish Link · 4 days ago(JNS) Blue and White Party leader Benny Gantz announced on Monday night, Oct. 19 that he was dropping out of the Oct. 27 Knesset election. Gantz conceded that he “did not succeed in convincing enough of the people of our path.” “I am still…
[Interview] Ousting Netanyahu won’t curb right-wing Israeli nationalism, says expert ahead of Tuesday’s Knesset electionsEUobserver · 3 days agoFirst published in Deník N. Even if Israelis vote out the current government, an ideological shift will endure, says Beth Oppenheim, a policy fellow in the Middle East and North Africa programme at the European Council on Foreign…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onCentral Elections Committee

Trading closesOct 27, 2027 10:00 AM ET

Traded$8.4K (28,510 contracts)

Today$490

This week$2.5K

At stake$4.7K

In the news11 headlines today, 54 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If A Place for All of Us has won at least 1 seat in the 2026 Israeli legislative election, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions