How many people will serve as Prime Minister of the UK before 2029?

Kalshi Politics › World leaders Closes Jan 8, 2029 · $25 traded · $3 at stake · prices read 11 h ago

The odds

1.50median

0.505.50

Median 1.50Middle half 1 – 2.21

How the odds have moved

Median: 1.50 on Oct 19, 1.50 now.

The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
1	50%	47¢	55¢	$1.82
2	35%	32¢	40¢	$2.50
3	9%	5¢	13¢	$7.69
4	2%	1¢	4¢	$25.00
5	1%		2¢	$50.00	2.5K
Above 5	2%	1¢	4¢	$25.00	1.00

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Prime Minister, Issuance

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India's Narendra Modi sworn in for third term as prime ministerCBS News · 27 h agoJune 9, 2024 / 11:11 AM EDT / AP India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi took office for a third consecutive term on Sunday, but it may hold more challenges for the popular-but-polarizing leader than his past decade in power. His Hindu…
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Prime Minister swaps dispatch box for GoggleboxBBC News · 3 days agoAndy Burnham is joined by Liverpool City Region mayor Steve Rotheram on the show Andy Burnham is to star in a special edition of Channel 4 hit show Gogglebox. The prime minister will be joined by Liverpool City Region Mayor Steve Rotheram…
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Jeremy Clarkson issues brutal 4-word verdict on Andy Burnham as Prime MinisterExpress.co.uk · 39 h agoThe broadcaster laid into the PM in his column suggesting the Labour leader would be better suited to working on a local council. Jeremy Clarkson has laid into Andy Burnham, saying the Prime Minister is "out of his depth", claiming he'd be…
The Shahbandar who became Prime MinisterFree Malaysia Today | FMT · 23 h agoFrom Tunku Azizah Aminah Maimunah Iskandariah Before Tun Abdul Razak Hussein became the Prime Minister, he was already a Shahbandar. Before the nation entrusted him with its government, the Sultan of Pahang had entrusted him with an office…
Somalia’s prime minister arrives in Jeddah@arabnews · 28 h agoSomalia’s prime minister arrives in Jeddah - The two countries are working to ensure the security of international waterways and freedom of navigation JEDDAH: Somalia’s Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre arrived in Jeddah on Saturday. He was…
Prime Minister Narendra Modi witnesses IAF aircraft formations in Varanasi@The_Hindu · 14 h agoShorts News:Prime Minister Narendra Modi witnesses IAF aircraft formations in Varanasi Prime Minister Narendra Modi witnesses IAF aircraft formations in Varanasi
How Israel elects its prime minister without voters choosing a candidateHindustan Times · 12 h agoIsrael is set to hold parliamentary elections on October 27 to elect a new Knesset, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu facing the prospect of losing power amid growing public discontent. The election will be the country's first…
Prime Minister: Developing unique brands for Vietnam's cultural industry.vietnam.vn · 33 h ago(Chinhphu.vn) - On the afternoon of October 24, the National Assembly held group discussions on the draft Law on the Development of Cultural Industries; the draft Law on Food Safety (amended); and the draft Law amending and supplementing a…
Prime Minister of Greece Receives Archbishop Makarios of AustraliaThe National Herald · 34 h agoThe National Herald ATHENS – Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis met on October 23 at the Maximos Mansion with Archbishop Makarios of Australia. The discussion focused on the social and philanthropic work of the Archdiocese, Greece’s ties…
Polish Prime Minister visits Hoi An Ancient TownVietnam+ (VietnamPlus) · 37 h agoOn October 24, as part of his official visit to Vietnam, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk and a high-level Polish delegation visited Hoi An Ancient Town in the central city of Da Nang. Ahead of the upcoming official visit to Vietnam by…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onOffice of the Prime Minister of the UK

Trading closesJan 8, 2029 10:00 AM ET

Traded$25 (2,469 contracts)

At stake$3

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If the number of people who have served as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, excluding Keir Starmer, after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2029 is exactly 1, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions