Pete Hoekstra out as US Ambassador to Canada? (Before Jan 2028)

Kalshi Politics › World leaders Closes Dec 31, 2027 · $163 traded · $133 at stake · prices read 6 h ago

The odds

26%Before Jan 1, 2028

Before Dec 12, 20268%▲ 1
Before Jan 26, 202711%▲ 1
Before Apr 1, 202716%
Before Jan 1, 202826%

How the odds have moved

Before Dec 12, 2026: 8% on Oct 19, 8% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Before Dec 12, 2026	8%	▲ 1	5¢	10¢	$10.00	1.9K
Before Jan 26, 2027	11%	▲ 1	7¢	15¢	$6.67	4.00
Before Apr 1, 2027	16%		11¢	20¢	$5.00
Before Jan 1, 2028	26%		21¢	30¢	$3.33	80.00

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Pete Hoekstra, Ambassador, Canada

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US ambassador softens accusations of Canadian interference in midtermsPOLITICO · 47 h agoIn an interview, Ambassador Pete Hoekstra said the U.S. had not determined whether there had, in fact, been any interference by Canadian officials. Pete Hoekstra, then-candidate for U.S. ambassador to Canada, takes his seat for a Senate…
U.S. ambassador offers Canada help almost a week after Wainwright tragedyCTVNews · 2 days agoU.S. Ambassador to Canada Pete Hoekstra says the United States has offered to help following the deadly fire at Canadian Forces Base Wainwright in Alberta.
Carney rejects US election interference claims, criticizes Trump’s ambassador to CanadaWHEC.com · 27 h agoSpeaking to reporters in Istanbul, Turkey, Carney rejected a fact sheet issued Wednesday by the U.S. Embassy in Canada accusing Canadian politicians of seeking to influence American politics. “The Canadian government brushes off concerns…
Canada Denies US Claim of Midterm MeddlingThe Rio Times · 2 days agoCanada says it is not meddling in the US midterm elections, after the US Embassy in Ottawa accused Canadian politicians of trying to sway them. The row matters to American readers because it could make tariff talks with their largest…
US Embassy in Ottawa accuses Canada of election meddlingPOLITICO · 4 days ago“Its ministers and premiers openly describe plans to influence American politics,” read a memo circulated by officials in Ottawa. U.S. Ambassador to Canada Pete Hoekstra speaks at the SpaceBound 2026 conference in Gatineau, Quebec, on Oct…
U.S. reshuffles Canadian tariff list as Ottawa tells diplomats to avoid midterm candidatesbe kind. · 28 h agoBuffalo, New York · Western New York Buffalo · Western New York Plywood and some paper products come off the 50% Section 338 list Oct. 30, while valves, carpets and waste products are added. Global Affairs Canada has told its diplomats to…
USA & Canada Intelligence Brief — Friday, October 23, 2026The Rio Times · 48 h agoUSA & Canada Intelligence Brief for October 23: Canada denies US election interference claims; Ottawa issues 15-day ultimatum to Cleveland-Cliffs. —Interference allegation. The US Embassy alleged Canadian officials tried to influence the 3…
Carney dismisses Canada 'interference' in US midterm electionsDaily Post Nigeria · 2 days agoPrime Minister Mark Carney has rejected the allegation of Canada's interference in the United States midterm elections as Republicans and Democrats slug it out. "There is no merit to these claims, so I’ll call it out that way," Carney told…
'No merit' to U.S. claims Canada is interfering ahead of midterms: CarneyCTVNews · 2 days agoPrime Minister Mark Carney says there is “no merit” to American claims that Canadians might be interfering in U.S. politics ahead of November’s midterm elections. ISTANBUL â Prime Minister Mark Carney says there is âno meritâ to…
Collins says she secured Canada tariff exemptions for farmersYahoo News · 2 days agoSen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, says she has "secured additional tariff exemptions products crucial to Maine's agricultural industries" as the Trump administration announces it has granted tariff exemptions on some Canadian imports. This…
U.S. ambassador to U.N. says Iran war could last another yearCBS News · 47 h agoCBS News is a trusted source for the latest in politics, U.S. and world news. The network is home to award-winning broadcasts CBS Mornings, CBS Evening News, 60 Minutes, CBS Sunday Morning, 48 Hours and Face the Nation. Waltz says Iran war…
Opinion | As midterms loom, Trump’s desperation intensifies with more threats against CanadaToronto Star · 2 days agoA resident votes during In-Person Absentee Voting (early voting) on Tuesday in Beloit, Wis. Pete Hoekstra, U.S. President Donald Trump’s ambassador to Canada, is apparently ticked off that no one took his warning about alleged Canadian…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onU.S. Department of State, U.S. Embassy in Canada, Global Affairs Canada

Trading closesDec 31, 2027 11:59 PM ET

Traded$163 (1,985 contracts)

At stake$133

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If Pete Hoekstra leaves as US Ambassador to Canada before Dec 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions