Anthropic announces bankruptcy by...?
24%December 31, 2029
- December 31, 202710%
- December 31, 202817%▼ 2
- December 31, 202924%
Install
When will xAI release Grok 5?
The odds
39%Before 2027
- Before 202739%▲ 2
- Before December17%▲ 3
- Before November3%
How the odds have moved
Not enough history yet.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before 2027 | 39% | ▲ 2 | 35¢ | 43¢ | $2.33 | 17.5K |
| Before December | 17% | ▲ 3 | 13¢ | 21¢ | $4.76 | 863 |
| Before September | 4% | $25.00 | 771 | |||
| Before November | 3% | 6¢ | $16.67 | 297 | ||
| Before October | 1% | $100.00 | 30.2K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: xAI, Grok, Before December
Search ›No recent headlines name this market's subject.
Related markets
All ai ›DeepSeek market share this week (DeepSeek market share - Oct 19, 2026)
26.28%median
21.6%29%
Median 26.28%Middle half 25.5% – 27.27%
Which company has the best AI model end of October?
73%Google
- Google73%▲ 3
- Anthropic25%▼ 4
- OpenAI1%
18 more
- Meta<1%
- Alibaba<1%
- Moonshot<1%
- Baidu<1%
- Z.ai<1%
- Xiaomi<1%
- SpaceXAI<1%
- DeepSeek<1%
- Amazon<1%
- ByteDance<1%
- Nvidia<1%
- Thinky<1%
- MiniMax<1%
- Mistral<1%
- Meituan<1%
- Tencent<1%
- StepFun<1%
- Microsoft<1%
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by...?
Oct 26, 2026even chance by
- October 2121%▼ 22
- October 2242%▼ 21
- October 2444%▼ 28
2 more
- October 3174%▼ 8
- December 3198%
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
$2.1Thigh with an even chance
Traders see an even chance of trading as high as $2.1T.
- Reaches $1.5T92%
- Reaches $1.75T69%
- Falls to $800B4%
- Falls to $700B4%
Already reached: ↑$1.25T, ↑$1.1T, ↑$1.0T
Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
51%Anthropic
- Anthropic51%▲ 1
- Google40%▲ 1
- OpenAI6%
12 more
- Meta2%▼ 1
- xAI1%
- Alibaba<1%
- DeepSeek<1%
- Moonshot<1%
- Z.ai<1%
- Mistral<1%
- Microsoft<1%
- Amazon<1%
- ByteDance<1%
- Baidu<1%
- Meituan<1%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.