Brazil Presidential Election
80%Flávio Bolsonaro
- Flávio Bolsonaro80%
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva20%▼ 1
Install
Will Greenland vote for independence in 2026?
The odds
2%chance
How the odds have moved
Yes: 2% on Oct 20, 2% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | 1¢ | 3¢ | $29.41 | 58.9K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Greenland
Search ›-
US oil company holds key to Trump's Greenland drilling ambitionsGreenland Energy CEO Robert Price says the United States needs to look to "friendly jurisdictions" to become independent from foreign supplies of oil. His company is in the permitting process and plans to drill wells in Greenland in 2027… -
Opinion | Why Trump is so interested in GreenlandIn the aftermath of his imperialist usurpation of Venezuela’s oil, he set his sights on Iran. As that war imploded, he resorted to a huge oil deal with President Vladimir Putin of Russia aimed at ... Trump’s misguided obsession with… -
At NATO summit, Trump pressures allies on loyalty, defense spending and GreenlandNew U.S. strikes on Iran come against the backdrop of the NATO summit in Turkey, where leaders are hoping to strengthen Europe’s ability to defend itself. President Trump brought his long-standing criticisms of European countries, once… -
Will Greenland Be Trump’s Alaska?Not sure what fits? A licensed AMAC advisor will walk you through it, at no cost. Critics mocked the purchase of Alaska - but the Last Frontier would ultimately become vital to American prosperity and national defense. Could Trump's… -
Where’s Greenland? The Case for Bringing Back the GlobeIt just seems that when you’ve got a globe—the whole world literally in your hands—you really begin to understand that all of this existence stuff didn’t just happen randomly. Remarkably, his original globe has remained at his Virginia… -
Greenland Parliament Passes Resolution to Ban Seabed Mineral Extraction Amid U.S. Exploration PlansHome » Trending » Greenland Parliament Passes Resolution to Ban Seabed Mineral Extraction Amid U.S. Exploration Plans The Greenland Parliament has taken a significant step by unanimously passing a resolution to ban seabed mineral… -
Russia’s Arctic drone blitz demands Trump's response in GreenlandWashington Examiner is a news organization based in Washington, D.C., covering Congress, the White House, national security, the courts and elections, with breaking news, investigative reporting and conservative analysis. It publishes a… -
‘A decision to decide’: Greenland moves to suspend seabed mining until 2029Greenland’s parliament has asked the government to pause licensing on seabed mining amid concerns about foreign interests in mining and potential environmental consequences for marine life. The Oct. 15 measure directed the government… - Greenland Parliament approves drafting law for pause in seabed mining — MongabayOn October 15, Greenland’s Parliament approved a decision instructing the government to prepare a law suspending mineral extraction from the seabed until at least 2029. Greenland’s government — Naalakkersuisut — must submit the bill to…
-
Trump says oil, gas, and mineral exploration in Greenland is set to begin. It’s not that simple. - The Boston GlobePresident Donald Trump said that “massive” oil, gas and mineral exploration is set to begin in “our new and beautiful Greenland,” though it wasn’t clear what developments he was referring to on an island where resource extraction has… -
Trump's Disrupt First, Negotiate Second: Greenland in FocusRealClearDefense Trump's Disrupt First, Negotiate Second: Greenland in Focus The Greenland security pact he signed on September 22 is the clearest recent example. Greenland: The Lever in Real Time At the United Nations General Assembly… - EU’s new Arctic strategy puts security and Greenland investment in focusGrowing security concerns and economic opportunities are shaping the European Union’s proposed Arctic strategy, with Greenland playing a central role in its plans. The European Commission presented the proposal this week, following…
Related markets
All around the world ›Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory
39%Flávio Bolsonaro <4%
- Flávio Bolsonaro <4%39%
- Flávio Bolsonaro 4-8%38%▲ 5
- Lula da Silva <4%16%▼ 3
5 more
- Flávio Bolsonaro 8-12%5%▼ 1
- Flávio Bolsonaro 12%+1%▼ 1
- Lula da Silva 4-8%1%
- Lula da Silva 8-12%<1%
- Lula da Silva 12%+<1%
Next French Presidential Election
46%Marine Le Pen
- Marine Le Pen46%▼ 1
- Édouard Philippe17%▲ 1
- David Lisnard14%
42 more
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon11%▲ 1
- Raphaël Glucksmann4%▼ 1
- François Hollande2%
- Bruno Retailleau1%
- Éric Zemmour1%
- Jordan Bardella1%
- Gabriel Attal1%▼ 1
- Sarah Knafo1%
- Dominique de Villepin1%
- Sébastien Lecornu<1%
- Christine Lagarde<1%
- Xavier Bertrand<1%
- Marion Maréchal<1%
- Natacha Polony<1%
- François Ruffin<1%
- Marine Tondelier<1%
- Ségolène Royal<1%
- François Asselineau<1%
- Jean Castex<1%
- Laurent Wauquiez<1%
- Fabien Roussel<1%
- Olivier Faure<1%
- Clémentine Autain<1%
- Nicolas Dupont-Aignan<1%
- Michel Barnier<1%
- Valérie Pécresse<1%
- François Bayrou<1%
- Élisabeth Borne<1%
- Yaël Braun-Pivet<1%
- Gérald Darmanin<1%
- Carole Delga<1%
- Bernard Cazeneuve<1%
- Manuel Bompard<1%
- Mathilde Panot<1%
- Juan Branco<1%
- Clémence Guetté<1%
- Karim Bouamrane<1%
- Lucie Castets<1%
- Yannick Jadot<1%
- François Baroin<1%
- Anasse Kazib<1%
- Sylvain Durif<1%
Serbia Parliamentary Election Winner
71%Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia
- Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia71%▼ 3
- Student List – Students Win28%▲ 2
- Ivica Dačić – Factor of Stability!<1%
7 more
- Rasim Ljajić – Humane (SDP – CDP)<1%
- Alliance of Vojvodina Hungarians – Dr Bálint Pásztor<1%
- Usame Zukorlić Movement for Unification<1%
- Russian Party – Serbia in BRICS – Slobodan Nikolić<1%
- Authentic Right – Dr Miloš Jovanović<1%
- European Serbia – Marinika Tepić, Zdravko Ponoš<1%
- SDA of Sandžak – Guardians of Sandžak<1%
Israeli Legislative Election Winner
71%Yashar
- Yashar71%▲ 2
- Likud27%▼ 3
- Together1%▲ 1
3 more
- Shas<1%
- The Democrats<1%
- Otzma Yehudit<1%
Brazil Presidential election winner?
81%Flávio Bolsonaro
- Flávio Bolsonaro81%▲ 3
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva19%▼ 4
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.