When will OpenAI release GPT-7?
83%Before 2028
- Before 202883%
- Before September, 202759%
- Before June, 202735%
1 more
- Before March, 202714%
Install
When will OpenAI release Astra 6.1?
The odds
26%Before Nov 13, 2026
- Before Oct 30, 20262%
- Before Nov 6, 202614%▼ 1
- Before Nov 13, 202626%▲ 1
How the odds have moved
Before Oct 30, 2026: 13% on Oct 20, 2% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Sep 25, 2026 | 1% | $100.00 | 6.5K | |||
| Before Oct 2, 2026 | 1% | $100.00 | 14.3K | |||
| Before Oct 9, 2026 | 1% | $100.00 | 34.9K | |||
| Before Oct 16, 2026 | 1% | $100.00 | 34.9K | |||
| Before Oct 23, 2026 | 1% | ▼ 1 | $100.00 | 53.2K | ||
| Before Oct 30, 2026 | 2% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | 66.3K | |
| Before Nov 6, 2026 | 14% | ▼ 1 | 13¢ | 14¢ | $7.14 | 64.7K |
| Before Nov 13, 2026 | 26% | ▲ 1 | 24¢ | 27¢ | $3.70 | 91.6K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: OpenAI, ChatGPT, Astra
Search ›-
ARC Prize rejects OpenAI's claim that Astra scored 99.9 percent on AGI testARC Prize's own verified score for GPT-6 Astra sits at 62.7 percent, not the 99.9 percent OpenAI touted, after the foundation found the top number came from a custom $19,000 harness run. ARC Prize built a benchmark specifically to resist… -
Paxton Sues OpenAI and Sam Altman, Seeks to Block Minors From ChatGPTTexas Attorney General Ken Paxton has sued OpenAI and CEO Sam Altman, accusing the ChatGPT maker of marketing its chatbot as safe while failing to protect Texans, including children. The lawsuit, filed Friday in Collin County district… -
Chatbot AI Service Comparison: OpenAI ChatGPT vs Claude vs Gemini (for CRM Actions)Short answer: Choose OpenAI ChatGPT for dynamic casual dialogue, Claude for explainable complex reasoning, and Gemini when minimal-response latency dominates; keep all three behind one CRM action contract. The boundary is simple: the model… -
Sweden's Government Offices Block ChatGPT and Claude, Keep Microsoft CopilotSweden's Government Offices—the administrative body supporting the prime minister and cabinet—will block ChatGPT and Claude on staff computers from Monday, directing civil servants to Microsoft's Copilot as the only approved AI tool… -
Texas Sues OpenAI, Altman Over ChatGPT Safety ClaimsThe Texas attorney general's office sued OpenAI and its chief executive Sam Altman in state court Friday, alleging the company breached consumer protection laws by unleashing a chatbot that often gives harmful advice and is addictive to… -
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton sues ChatGPT-maker OpenAITEXAS (The Texas Tribune) - Attorney General Ken Paxton is suing OpenAI, the maker of ChatGPT, for allegedly deceiving and harming Texans. This is the latest in a flurry of lawsuits filed against Big Tech companies and private corporations… -
Texas AG Ken Paxton sues OpenAI over ChatGPT safety claimsTexas Attorney General Ken Paxton is suing technology company OpenAI for allegedly failing to protect Texans from the harms of using ChatGPT. Paxton speaks during a news conference with U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright in Houston on… -
OpenAI GPT 6 Astra Limited Release that Beats Anthropic Fable 5.1 on BenchmarksGPT-6 Astra leads every comparable benchmark against Claude Fable 5.1, Claude Fable 5, and Claude Opus 5. Clear wins (large gaps) Closer but still ahead DeepSWE v1.1: Astra 74.1% vs Fable 5 69.9%, Opus 5 68.8%, Fable 5.1 67.4%. GPQA… -
What is OpenAI 'dots'? A Thorough Explanation of 5 Differences from ChatGPT and How to Get Started [2026 Edition]From the 'era of asking AI questions' to the 'era of delegating work to AI'. A service that makes you feel such a change has been released by OpenAI. Its name is 'dots'. It is a new AI agent announced on September 29, 2026. ChatGPT until… -
Forced to pick, Grok’s AI model chooses Republicans. OpenAI’s picks Democrats.Buy One Founder Summit Ticket, Get a Second for Free. Register now. Most AI chatbots won’t outright tell you who to vote for, but some of the models behind them will. A new study found that when forced to choose in this year’s upcoming… -
Paxton Sues OpenAI And Sam Altman Over Suicide Claims, Seeks ChatGPT Ban For Texas KidsTexas Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) sued OpenAI and CEO Sam Altman on Friday, accusing them of misleading Texans about ChatGPT’s safety and asking a court to bar the chatbot for minors in the state. The 67-page petition names six OpenAI… -
OpenAI agents discussed ways to escape their sandbox on public wikiIf OpenAI’s public characterization is substantially accurate, its agents engaged in behavior they were not supposed to perform and escaped relevant controls. The agents subsequently interacted with ... OpenAI agents discussed ways to…
Related markets
All ai ›Which company has the best AI model end of October?
86%Google
- Google86%▼ 4
- Anthropic10%▲ 2
- OpenAI1%
18 more
- Meta<1%
- Moonshot<1%
- Alibaba<1%
- Baidu<1%
- Z.ai<1%
- Xiaomi<1%
- SpaceXAI<1%
- DeepSeek<1%
- Amazon<1%
- ByteDance<1%
- Nvidia<1%
- Thinky<1%
- MiniMax<1%
- Mistral<1%
- Meituan<1%
- Tencent<1%
- StepFun<1%
- Microsoft<1%
Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
52%Anthropic
- Anthropic52%▲ 3
- Google36%▼ 2
- OpenAI6%
12 more
- Meta2%
- xAI1%▼ 1
- Alibaba1%
- Moonshot1%
- Z.ai<1%
- DeepSeek<1%
- Mistral<1%
- Microsoft<1%
- ByteDance<1%
- Meituan<1%
- Amazon<1%
- Baidu<1%
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released on...?
59%No release by October 31
- No release by October 3159%▼ 9
- October 2719%▲ 1
- October 287%▲ 4
11 more
- October 297%▲ 3
- October 266%▲ 1
- October 302%▲ 1
- October 201%▼ 12
- October 31<1%▼ 1
- October 19<1%▼ 2
- October 21<1%▼ 5
- October 22<1%▼ 14
- October 23<1%▼ 4
- October 24<1%
- October 25<1%▼ 1
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by...?
Nov 11, 2026even chance by
- October 21<1%▼ 12
- October 22<1%▼ 14
- October 24<1%▼ 1
2 more
- October 3141%▲ 10
- December 3193%▼ 1
Next Claude Haiku Model (4.6+): Text Arena Debut?
1,410median
1,3801,480
Median 1,410Middle half 1,405 – 1,415
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions