German presidential election winner? (2027)

Kalshi Elections › Around the world Closes Jan 30, 2028 · $549 traded · $549 at stake · prices read 5 h ago

The odds

49%Ilse Aigner

Ilse Aigner49%
Karin Prien15%
Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer12%
Julia Klöckner9%
Boris Rhein4%
Udo Di Fabio4%
Monika Grütters4%
Gabriele Krone-Schmalz2%
Hape Kerkeling2%

How the odds have moved

Ilse Aigner: 47% on Oct 19, 49% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Ilse Aigner	49%	48¢	57¢	$1.75	939
Karin Prien	15%	12¢	20¢	$5.00	181
Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer	12%	8¢	17¢	$5.88
Julia Klöckner	9%	5¢	14¢	$7.14	187
Boris Rhein	4%	1¢	7¢	$14.29	161
Udo Di Fabio	4%	1¢	7¢	$14.29	80.00
Monika Grütters	4%	1¢	7¢	$14.29
Gabriele Krone-Schmalz	2%	1¢	4¢	$25.00
Hape Kerkeling	2%	1¢	4¢	$25.00

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Ilse Aigner, Karin Prien, Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer

Search ›

Germany Politics Explained, Who Holds Power in 2026The Rio Times · 34 h agoGermany is a democratic federal parliamentary republic where legislative power rests with the Bundestag and the Bundesrat, the body representing Germany’s regional states. The Federal Constitutional Court serves as the independent…
Merz calls for unity as he warns of threats facing Germanythefrontierpost.com · 45 h agoBERLIN (Reuters) : Chancellor Friedrich Merz called for unity in his struggling coalition on Saturday, saying Germany faced growing threats from political extremists and what he described as daily Russian efforts to destabilise the…
Merz to address Bavarian conservatives amid doubts over his governmentYahoo News · 3 days agoGerman Chancellor Friedrich Merz is expected at the Munich exhibition hall on Saturday to close the two-day party conference of the Bavarian conservatives. Expectations among delegates for the speech by the leader of the conservative bloc…
Germany plans social media ban for children under 13Muslim Network TV · 12 days agoBERLIN (MNTV) – Germany’s Cabinet approved new guidelines Wednesday to protect children and teenagers online, including plans to ban children under 13 from using major social media platforms. The proposed restrictions would remain in place…
Germany moves to ban social media for children under 13Newswav · 12 days agoBERLIN, Oct 14 - Germany’s Cabinet has approved policy guidelines to better protect children and young people online, including a national ban on social networks for those under 13 until European rules take effect. Anadolu Ajansı reported…
EU Criticizes Trump-Putin Diesel Deal as Germany Condemns US Policy on UkraineTekedia · 14 days agoThe European Union has sharply criticized a reported diesel supply agreement between United States President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, warning that easing sanctions against Moscow could provide the Kremlin with…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onGerman Bundestag

Trading closesJan 30, 2028 10:00 AM ET

Traded$549 (1,548 contracts)

This week$170

At stake$549

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If Ilse Aigner wins the 2027 German presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions