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Generic Ballot: Democrats Up/Down (10/23-10/30)? (10/23 to 10/30)
The odds
63%chance▼ 17
How the odds have moved
Yes: 80% on Oct 24, 63% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
- Oct 26, 7 AM ET80% → 63%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 63% | ▼ 17 | 62¢ | 63¢ | $1.59 | 19.00 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Generic Ballot, Democrats Up
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Democrats Maintain Lead on Generic BallotA new CBS News/YouGov poll finds Democrats leading Republicans on the generic congressional ballot, 53% to 45%. Generic Congressional Ballot Democrats 53% Republicans 45% CBS News/YouGov poll · likely voters · ±3% A new CBS News/YouGov… -
Trump Rages Viciously at Young Female Journo—and Even Fox Is CringingDonald Trump seethed wildly at NBC reporter Monica Alba after she asked him tough questions about his support for that vile ad attacking Ohio gubernatorial candidate Amy Acton for supposedly lying about her past. Alba pointed out that… -
Democrats remain clear favourites to gain control of Congress at midterms as Trump’s ratings slide againWith eight days until the November 3 US midterm elections, Democrats have a three in four chance of gaining control of the Senate, and remain overwhelming favourites to gain control of the House of Representatives in Nate Silver’s forecast… -
Maine Democrats have switched from defense to offense | OpinionDevon Murphy-Anderson is the executive director of the Maine Democratic Party. She is from Harpswell and lives in Portland. Most people think elections are won or lost on Election Day. But any good operative knows elections are often… -
US Democrats lead by 9 points as Senate map widens into SouthWashington, Oct 19 (IANS) With 16 days to go before the November 3 midterm elections, network polls released on the Sunday shows pointed to a difficult climate for President Donald Trump’s Republicans, with Democrats favoured for the House… -
Down to the wire in 5th Congressional DistrictThe history of Colorado’s 5th Congressional District would indicate that the Nov. 3 election should be a guaranteed victory for the Republican party. But recent trends in this year’s election cycle suggest that the contest between… -
VIDEO: CNN Hits Democrats With a Midterm Polling Reality CheckCNN just gave Democrats a warning they cannot afford to ignore as Election Day closes in. The polls may show Democratic Senate candidates narrowly ahead in several states President Trump carried. But CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten… - VIDEO: CNN Hits Democrats With a Midterm Polling Reality Check – 100PercentFedUp.com – by DonaldCNN just gave Democrats a warning they cannot afford to ignore as Election Day closes in. The polls may show Democratic Senate candidates narrowly ahead in several states President Trump carried. But CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten…
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Discovery of new fake polls puts a spotlight on trust in surveysSunday, Oct. 25, 2026 | 2 a.m. The pollster had been releasing surveys since June, shifting from one midterm battleground to another: Michigan. Maine. Kansas. On Tuesday night, after the polling website FiftyPlusOne contacted the pollster… - Iowa’s cancer problem is scrambling the midtermsBy Sarah Owermohle, David Wright, CNN (CNN) — As the debate season kicked off in Iowa’s heated gubernatorial race, one question seemed to animate and, in some ways, unify the candidates. “What are the immediate and specific steps that you…
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'Saddam Hussein Opened A Cheesecake Factory' Barack Obama Mocks Trump's Gold-Filled White House Renovations At Ohio RallyOhio [US], October 25: Former US President Barack Obama launched a sharp, satirical attack against Donald Trump’s ongoing renovation choices for the White House, saying Trump has "got the White House looking like former Iraq President… -
Obama rallies Detroit voters in final push for Michigan democratsKhalil Maycock, Local 4 News reporter, Detroit Michigan’s U.S. Senate race is drawing national attention, and this weekend both major candidates are getting high-profile help at the top of their tickets. In Detroit on Saturday night…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions