Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/26 - 11/1)
189.5median
140230
Median 189.5Middle half 176.9 – 200.8
Install
Keiko Fujimori out as President of Peru? (Before Jul 2026)
The odds
14%Before Jan 1, 2028
- Before Jan 1, 20275%▲ 1
- Before Jul 1, 20277%▲ 1
- Before Jan 1, 202814%
How the odds have moved
Before Jan 1, 2027: 6% on Oct 19, 5% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 5% | ▲ 1 | 2¢ | 8¢ | $12.50 | 641 |
| Before Jul 1, 2027 | 7% | ▲ 1 | 4¢ | 10¢ | $10.00 | 1.0K |
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 14% | 11¢ | 18¢ | $5.56 | 536 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: President of Peru, Keiko Fujimori
Search ›-
Peru Senate Panel Advances Executive Powers—What. A Senate committee approved 27 powers for President Keiko Fujimori’s government to issue decrees on security and El Niño prevention. —When. The committee voted on Monday 19 October 2026; the full Senate is due to debate it on… -
Peru Stimulus Plan Caps Bonuses at US$725MPeru has capped the cash bonuses in its Peru stimulus plan at S/2.5 billion (US$725 million), and about 800,000 pensioners are due roughly S/200 (US$58) each in December. Economy Minister Elmer Cuba gave the details to the business daily… -
Peru Plans Bigger Deficit Limits To Fund Weather, Fuel ReliefFinance Minister Elmer Cuba laid out a plan on Thursday to loosen Peru's fiscal rulebook and create more headroom. Under the plan, the shortfall could rise to 2.4% of GDP next year, up from the previous 1.4% ceiling, and would then be… -
Colombian President De la Espriella Follows the Far-Right PlaybookColombian President Abelardo de la Espriella, 2026. X/ @lgbtplusnewsit October 23, 2026 Hour: 11:14 am Colombian President Abelardo de la Espriella is following the playbook that other far-right leaders, such as U.S. President Donald… -
Peru Decree Powers Give Fujimori 90 DaysThe Peru decree powers that President Keiko Fujimori requested became law on Thursday 22 October 2026, when she signed Law 32743, which lets her government write laws by decree for 90 calendar days on crime and El Niño. The law appeared… -
Peru's President Fujimori presents new cabinet membersThe Daily News | Texas' Oldest Newspaper Peru's President Keiko Fujimori presents Elmer âÂÂCuba as Peru's new Economy and Finance Minister, in Lima, Peru, July 28, 2026. REUTERS/Angela Ponce - Santa Fe teen advances on âThe Voice,â… -
Peru Senate Elects 3 Central Bank DirectorsPERU · CENTRAL BANK Peru’s Senate has completed the central bank board, electing Molina, Stok and Marthans for 2026 to 2031. Two nominees of the Fuerza Popular party of President Keiko Fujimori and one of Renovación Popular won seats… -
Peru President Fujimori to Visit Japan in Nov.nippon.com - Peru President Fujimori to Visit Japan in Nov. Sao Paulo, Oct. 21 (Jiji Press)--Peruvian President Keiko Fujimori is scheduled to visit Japan on Nov. 19-20, the Nippon Foundation, a Japanese philanthropic group, said… -
Peru Tightens Prison Security To Break Criminal Command From Behind Bars – AnalysisThe strategy seeks to disrupt the communications, resources, and connections that allow criminal networks to continue operating from behind bars. Prime Minister Luis Galarreta announced plans to build new prisons and take steps to reduce… -
PHOTOS: Lord of Miracles image enters Peru’s Government Palace for first time in 40 yearsOn Monday, Oct. 19, the image of the Lord of the Miracles entered the Courtyard of Honor at the Government Palace of Peru, where it was received by President Keiko Fujimori and her ministers. The original image was painted by a slave on an… -
Peru taps fiscal strength to face El Niño impact, eases fiscal rulesLIMA, Oct 22 (Reuters) - Peru on Thursday unveiled a package of economic measures aimed at cushioning a potential slowdown from the El Niño weather phenomenon. Impacted firms will receive liquidity support and tax payment deferrals… -
Peru El Niño Stimulus Hits US$5.2 BillionPeru’s President Keiko Fujimori announced a Peru El Niño stimulus of about S/18 billion (about US$5.2 billion) on Thursday 22 October 2026. She defended raising the fiscal deficit limit, the gap between state spending and income, to 2.4%…
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All world leaders ›Traffic through the Suez Canal? (10/26 - 11/1)
296.9median
250340
Median 296.9Middle half 284.1 – 308.3
Traffic through the Panama Canal? (10/26 - 11/1)
195.2median
160230
Median 195.2Middle half 187.1 – 202.7
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
Mar 2, 2028even chance by
- Before Nov 1, 20261%▼ 1
- Before Dec 1, 20266%▲ 1
- Before Jan 1, 20278%
14 more
- Before Feb 1, 20278%▼ 1
- Before Mar 1, 202713%▼ 1
- Before Apr 1, 202717%▼ 1
- Before May 1, 202720%▲ 1
- Before Jun 1, 202725%
- Before Jul 1, 202733%▲ 2
- Before Aug 1, 202733%
- Before Sep 1, 202734%
- Before Oct 1, 202737%
- Before Nov 1, 202741%
- Before Dec 1, 202741%
- Before Jan 1, 202847%▼ 1
- Before Jul 1, 202857%▲ 2
- Before Jan 1, 202960%
Traffic through the Suez Canal? (10/19 - 10/25)
296.6median
250340
Median 296.6Middle half 289.4 – 306.3
Traffic through the Panama Canal? (10/19 - 10/25)
197.1median
160230
Median 197.1Middle half 189.4 – 202.5
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions