French presidential election: who will advance? (Apr 18, 2026)

Kalshi Elections › Around the world Closes Apr 17, 2028 · $8.2K traded · $7.4K at stake · prices read 59 min ago

The odds

83%Marine Le Pen

Marine Le Pen83%▼ 1
Édouard Philippe37%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon35%
Gabriel Attal13%▼ 1
Raphaël Glucksmann6%▼ 1
Bruno Retailleau6%
François Hollande5%
Dominique de Villepin4%
Sébastien Lecornu3%
Bernard Cazeneuve3%
Élisabeth Borne3%
Jordan Bardella3%

1 more

Olivier Faure3%

How the odds have moved

Marine Le Pen: 90% on Oct 20, 83% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Marine Le Pen	83%	▼ 1	80¢	85¢	$1.18	8.5K
Édouard Philippe	37%		33¢	40¢	$2.50	1.2K
Jean-Luc Mélenchon	35%		33¢	37¢	$2.70	1.9K
Gabriel Attal	13%	▼ 1	10¢	15¢	$6.67
Raphaël Glucksmann	6%	▼ 1	3¢	8¢	$12.50	146
Bruno Retailleau	6%		2¢	9¢	$11.11	10.00
François Hollande	5%		3¢	7¢	$14.29	2.0K
Dominique de Villepin	4%		1¢	7¢	$14.29
Sébastien Lecornu	3%		1¢	5¢	$20.00	3.00
Bernard Cazeneuve	3%		1¢	5¢	$20.00	80.00
Élisabeth Borne	3%		1¢	5¢	$20.00
Jordan Bardella	3%		1¢	4¢	$25.00	243
Olivier Faure	3%		1¢	4¢	$25.00	4.00

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Marine Le Pen, Édouard Philippe, Jean-Luc Mélenchon

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Marine Le Pen The Only Presidential Candidate to See Support Rise in Wake of French RiotsBreitbart · 4 days agoThe wave of Islamo-leftist unrest in France has apparently redounded to the benefit of National Rally leader Marine Le Pen, who is the only presidential candidate to see their poll numbers climb after the outburst of violence last weekend…
Why Jean-Luc Mélenchon wants France to burn@spikedonline · 4 days agoThe post Why Jean-Luc Mélenchon wants France to burn appeared first on spiked. As France has descended into anarchy, enduring its most destructive and violent rioting in decades, most of the candidates to replace Emmanuel Macron as…
More than 1,300 demo-goers arrested and 50 police hurt in violent French protests - as National Rally's Marine Le Pen to kick off presidential campaign with rally speechDaily Mail · 29 h agoPolice arrested 1,314 people in weekend protests across France, with 53 officers hurt in the clashes. The arrests occurred as violence broke out on the margins of mass demonstrations in major cities on Saturday over the high cost of…
Ukraine, PSG: Zabarnyi sends a strong message to Marine Le PenFrench Football Weekly · 3 days agoManu Tournoux is a passionate and knowledgeable football enthusiast with a special focus on French football. Born and raised in France, Manu discovered his love for the beautiful game at a young age and developed a deep understanding of…
Who is Marine Le Pen? Why are betting markets bullish on her winning 2027 French presidency amid unrest in Francemint · 5 days agoBetting markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket are bullish on Marine Le Pen's chances of winning the 2027 French presidential election. The prediction comes as massive nationwide protests over the cost of living woes continue to roil…
Trump defends Marine Le Pen and questions how she was treatedFox News · 6 days agoFox News Trump defends Marine Le Pen and questions how she was treated President Donald Trump addresses whether he would endorse candidate Marine Le Pen for the French presidency.
David McWilliams: France is likely heading towards ECB support and a Marine Le Pen presidencyThe Irish Times · 2 days agoProtesting is in the French DNA. These people gave the world the French Revolution- not the French Negotiation or the French Re-evaluation – which was the most consequential political upheaval of the past 300 years and it started in Paris…
Will French unrest benefit Marine Le Pen’s presidential run?The Irish Times · 5 days agoSitting presidentially behind a huge desk, the French flag behind her, Marine Le Pen took the occasion of the unrest in France this weekend to make a grave address to the nation. “In six months, the French people will be able to choose…
Who Is Marine Le Pen? What Are Her Policies as Election Odds Rise Amid France Unrest?Outlook India · 4 days agoMarine Le Pen’s odds of winning France’s 2027 presidential election have crossed 50% on betting markets. Here is a look at her political career, EU funds conviction and key policies Marine Le Pen’s 2027 presidential election odds have…
Prediction-market odds rise for Marine Le Pen in France 2027 presidential race as protests roil nationCNBC · 6 days agoAs protests intensify in France, Kalshi traders see a growing likelihood that far-right candidate Marine Le Pen will win that country's presidential race in 2027. Student-led protests first erupted in Paris over frustration with school…
Marine Le Pen Gains Support in French Presidential Poll After Weekend Riotsslguardian.org · 5 days agoThe far-right leader secures 34–38% in first-round polling for the 2027 election, although the survey cannot establish whether the unrest contributed to her rising support. Marine Le Pen has gained support in the first opinion poll on…
Recommended StoriesWashington Examiner · 3 days agoWithin a month, however, a cascade of disorder developed on a scale not seen in years. The rioting and destruction on the weekend of Oct. 17-18 by an alliance of immigrant-descended “New French” and the radical Left has not just shaken the…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onConseil constitutionnel

Trading closesApr 17, 2028 10:00 AM ET

Traded$8.2K (14,045 contracts)

This week$6.6K

At stake$7.4K

In the news5 headlines today, 36 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If Marine Le Pen is announced to qualify for the runoff in the 2027 French presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions