Next French presidential election: 1st place (1st round) (Apr 18, 2027)

Kalshi Elections › Around the world Closes Apr 18, 2028 · $14.9K traded · $8.6K at stake · prices read 2 h ago

The odds

83%Marine Le Pen
  • Marine Le Pen83%
  • Jordan Bardella6%▼ 1
  • David Lisnard2%
  • Jean-Luc Mélenchon2%▼ 2
  • Édouard Philippe2%▲ 1
  • Xavier Bertrand2%
  • Raphaël Glucksmann1%
  • Gabriel Attal1%
  • Bruno Retailleau1%
  • François Hollande1%
  • Éric Zemmour1%
  • François Ruffin1%
2 more
  • Marine Tondelier1%
  • Dominique de Villepin1%

How the odds have moved

Marine Le Pen: 82% on Oct 20, 83% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
Marine Le Pen 83% 82¢ 83¢ $1.20 16.7K
Jordan Bardella 6% ▼ 1 2¢ 9¢ $11.11 9.6K
David Lisnard 2% 1¢ 3¢ $33.33 7.0K
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 2% ▼ 2 1¢ 2¢ $50.00 4.2K
Édouard Philippe 2% ▲ 1 1¢ 2¢ $50.00 4.3K
Xavier Bertrand 2% 1¢ 2¢ $50.00 2.3K
Raphaël Glucksmann 1% 1¢ $100.00 2.7K
Gabriel Attal 1% 1¢ $100.00 3.1K
Bruno Retailleau 1% 1¢ $100.00 1.6K
François Hollande 1% 1¢ $100.00 1.6K
Éric Zemmour 1% 1¢ $100.00 3.6K
François Ruffin 1% 1¢ $100.00 3.8K
Marine Tondelier 1% 1¢ $100.00 3.5K
Dominique de Villepin 1% 1¢ $100.00 4.0K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Marine Le Pen, Jordan Bardella, David Lisnard

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Next French Presidential Election

44%Marine Le Pen
  • Marine Le Pen44%
  • Édouard Philippe16%▲ 1
  • David Lisnard14%
42 more
  • Jean-Luc Mélenchon10%▼ 1
  • Raphaël Glucksmann4%▲ 1
  • François Hollande3%▲ 1
  • Bruno Retailleau2%
  • Éric Zemmour1%
  • Gabriel Attal1%
  • Sarah Knafo1%
  • Jordan Bardella1%
  • Dominique de Villepin1%
  • Sébastien Lecornu<1%
  • Christine Lagarde<1%
  • Xavier Bertrand<1%
  • Marion Maréchal<1%
  • François Ruffin<1%
  • Ségolène Royal<1%
  • François Asselineau<1%
  • Jean Castex<1%
  • Natacha Polony<1%
  • Laurent Wauquiez<1%
  • Marine Tondelier<1%
  • Fabien Roussel<1%
  • Olivier Faure<1%
  • Clémentine Autain<1%
  • Nicolas Dupont-Aignan<1%
  • Michel Barnier<1%
  • Valérie Pécresse<1%
  • François Bayrou<1%
  • Élisabeth Borne<1%
  • Yaël Braun-Pivet<1%
  • Gérald Darmanin<1%
  • Carole Delga<1%
  • Bernard Cazeneuve<1%
  • Manuel Bompard<1%
  • Mathilde Panot<1%
  • Juan Branco<1%
  • Clémence Guetté<1%
  • Karim Bouamrane<1%
  • Lucie Castets<1%
  • Yannick Jadot<1%
  • François Baroin<1%
  • Anasse Kazib<1%
  • Sylvain Durif<1%

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions