Brazil Presidential Election
79%Flávio Bolsonaro
- Flávio Bolsonaro79%▼ 1
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva21%▲ 2
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Next French presidential election winner? (2027)
The odds
49%Marine Le Pen
- Marine Le Pen49%▼ 2
- Édouard Philippe15%
- David Lisnard10%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon8%
- François Hollande4%
- Raphaël Glucksmann4%
- Christine Lagarde2%
- Jordan Bardella1%
- Gabriel Attal1%
- Bruno Retailleau1%
- Sarah Knafo1%
- Dominique de Villepin1%
18 more
- Éric Zemmour<1%
- Sébastien Lecornu<1%
- François Ruffin<1%
- Michel Barnier<1%
- Xavier Bertrand<1%
- Valérie Pécresse<1%
- Laurent Wauquiez<1%
- Élisabeth Borne<1%
- Yaël Braun-Pivet<1%
- Jean Castex<1%
- Gérald Darmanin<1%
- Bruno Le Maire<1%
- François Bayrou<1%
- Bernard Cazeneuve<1%
- Carole Delga<1%
- Olivier Faure<1%
- Manuel Bompard<1%
- Mathilde Panot<1%
How the odds have moved
Marine Le Pen: 51% on Oct 20, 49% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marine Le Pen | 49% | ▼ 2 | 49¢ | 51¢ | $1.96 | 283.3K |
| Édouard Philippe | 15% | 15¢ | 16¢ | $6.25 | 55.0K | |
| David Lisnard | 10% | 10¢ | 11¢ | $9.09 | 81.1K | |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 8% | 8¢ | 8¢ | $12.05 | 61.5K | |
| François Hollande | 4% | 4¢ | 5¢ | $20.00 | 83.8K | |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 4% | 4¢ | 5¢ | $20.00 | 38.1K | |
| Christine Lagarde | 2% | 2¢ | 3¢ | $33.33 | 32.3K | |
| Jordan Bardella | 1% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $66.67 | 100.4K | |
| Gabriel Attal | 1% | 1¢ | 1¢ | $90.91 | 46.4K | |
| Bruno Retailleau | 1% | 1¢ | 1¢ | 20.9K | ||
| Sarah Knafo | 1% | 1¢ | 1¢ | 35.3K | ||
| Dominique de Villepin | 1% | 1¢ | 1¢ | 37.9K | ||
| Éric Zemmour | <1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | 36.2K | ||
| Sébastien Lecornu | <1% | 0¢ | 0¢ | 11.3K | ||
| François Ruffin | <1% | 0¢ | 0¢ | 12.4K | ||
| Michel Barnier | <1% | 0¢ | 0¢ | 9.2K | ||
| Xavier Bertrand | <1% | 0¢ | 0¢ | 5.4K | ||
| Valérie Pécresse | <1% | 0¢ | 0¢ | 9.3K | ||
| Laurent Wauquiez | <1% | 0¢ | 0¢ | 9.3K | ||
| Élisabeth Borne | <1% | 0¢ | 0¢ | 4.8K | ||
| Yaël Braun-Pivet | <1% | 0¢ | 0¢ | 9.3K | ||
| Jean Castex | <1% | 0¢ | 0¢ | 9.7K | ||
| Gérald Darmanin | <1% | 0¢ | 0¢ | 9.4K | ||
| Bruno Le Maire | <1% | 0¢ | 0¢ | 4.8K | ||
| François Bayrou | <1% | 0¢ | 0¢ | 10.3K | ||
| Bernard Cazeneuve | <1% | 0¢ | 0¢ | 4.8K | ||
| Carole Delga | <1% | 0¢ | 0¢ | 9.2K | ||
| Olivier Faure | <1% | 0¢ | 0¢ | 9.3K | ||
| Manuel Bompard | <1% | 0¢ | 0¢ | 7.1K | ||
| Mathilde Panot | <1% | 0¢ | 0¢ | 4.8K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Marine Le Pen, Édouard Philippe, David Lisnard
Search ›-
Trump defends Marine Le Pen and questions how she was treatedFox News Trump defends Marine Le Pen and questions how she was treated President Donald Trump addresses whether he would endorse candidate Marine Le Pen for the French presidency. -
Prediction-market odds rise for Marine Le Pen in France 2027 presidential race as protests roil nationAs protests intensify in France, Kalshi traders see a growing likelihood that far-right candidate Marine Le Pen will win that country's presidential race in 2027. Student-led protests first erupted in Paris over frustration with school… -
Who is Marine Le Pen? Why are betting markets bullish on her winning 2027 French presidency amid unrest in FranceBetting markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket are bullish on Marine Le Pen's chances of winning the 2027 French presidential election. The prediction comes as massive nationwide protests over the cost of living woes continue to roil… -
Ukraine, PSG: Zabarnyi sends a strong message to Marine Le PenManu Tournoux is a passionate and knowledgeable football enthusiast with a special focus on French football. Born and raised in France, Manu discovered his love for the beautiful game at a young age and developed a deep understanding of… -
Marine Le Pen The Only Presidential Candidate to See Support Rise in Wake of French RiotsThe wave of Islamo-leftist unrest in France has apparently redounded to the benefit of National Rally leader Marine Le Pen, who is the only presidential candidate to see their poll numbers climb after the outburst of violence last weekend… - Who Is Marine Le Pen? What Are Her Policies as Election Odds Rise Amid France Unrest?Marine Le Pen’s odds of winning France’s 2027 presidential election have crossed 50% on betting markets. Here is a look at her political career, EU funds conviction and key policies Marine Le Pen’s 2027 presidential election odds have…
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David McWilliams: France is likely heading towards ECB support and a Marine Le Pen presidencyProtesting is in the French DNA. These people gave the world the French Revolution- not the French Negotiation or the French Re-evaluation – which was the most consequential political upheaval of the past 300 years and it started in Paris… -
Will French unrest benefit Marine Le Pen’s presidential run?Sitting presidentially behind a huge desk, the French flag behind her, Marine Le Pen took the occasion of the unrest in France this weekend to make a grave address to the nation. “In six months, the French people will be able to choose… -
Marine Le Pen Gains Support in French Presidential Poll After Weekend RiotsThe far-right leader secures 34–38% in first-round polling for the 2027 election, although the survey cannot establish whether the unrest contributed to her rising support. Marine Le Pen has gained support in the first opinion poll on… -
As French protests escalate into riots, they may prove a gift for Marine Le Pen???s right???wing partyHome » International » As French protests escalate into riots, they may prove a gift for Marine Le Pen’s right‑wing party Mass protests in France have spiralled into riots, with between 500,000 and 800,000 demonstrators in cities and towns… - Support for Marine Le Pen increases after unrest in FranceOct 21, 2026 08:09 90 Support for far-right leader Marine Le Pen is increasing after the unrest in France, according to a public opinion survey published in the newspaper "Figaro", BTA reported. The poll gives Le Pen a score of 34-38…
- Kalshi Prices Marine Le Pen’s 2027 Election Odds at 53%Her price rose from 39% over the past month as protests spread across France. Another contender’s price fell sharply over the same period. Kalshi traders priced French presidential candidate Marine Le Pen’s chance of winning the 2027…
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45%Marine Le Pen
- Marine Le Pen45%▼ 1
- Édouard Philippe16%
- David Lisnard14%
42 more
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon11%▲ 1
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- François Hollande2%
- Bruno Retailleau1%
- Éric Zemmour1%
- Jordan Bardella1%
- Sarah Knafo1%
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69%Yashar
- Yashar69%▼ 1
- Likud31%
- Together<1%
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Brazil Presidential election winner?
81%Flávio Bolsonaro
- Flávio Bolsonaro81%▲ 2
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva20%▼ 2
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.